Should the United States be the world’s police force? This question divides opinion, but one thing’s for sure: throughout the last 70 years, the US has seized upon the role.

These days are drawing to a close, though. In the near future, the country will decrease its commitments and withdraw from its massive involvement in world politics. That’s partly because, thanks to their growing shale oil industry, the US no longer depends on imported fuel, which was its main incentive to maintain safe naval routes and a stable Middle East.

But what about the world? How will it fare without US interventions? Before we answer these questions about the future, we’ll go way back in time to explore the origins of superpowers, from the Egyptian empire to the United States. You’ll understand why there’s a rather gloomy, if thought-provoking, prognosis. And it’s one you won’t necessarily agree with.

In this summary of The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan, you’ll discover

• why traveling might become really difficult in the next few decades;
• how the Mississippi River contributed to the power of the United States; and
• why another great European war isn’t out of the question.

Recommendation

In 1944, the United States engineered the Bretton Woods agreements, which launched the modern era of international trade. America opened its domestic markets to imports and committed its naval power to protect trade worldwide. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan explains that, as America’s costs for maintaining this state of affairs begin to outweigh the benefits it receives and as the world order under Bretton Woods unravels, Americans will resist the burden of keeping the seas secure. While always politically neutral, getAbstract recommends Zeihan’s knowledgeable if contrarian argument to policy makers, investors and anyone in imports and exports, energy, international politics, strategy, lobbying or defense.

Take-Aways

• The Bretton Woods era of modern international trade, which begun in 1944, is ending.
• The United States deploys its navy to protect maritime trade worldwide.
• The capacity to navigate the seas and oceans allows countries to expand their economies globally and to keep hostile powers offshore.
• Post-Bretton Woods, relations with South Korea and Taiwan will be a decisive test of US support of allied nations.
• The US didn’t develop an export-based economy, as many other countries did.
• America’s power derives from its physical geography, the best in the world for applying maritime technologies and industrialization techniques.
• By 2020, North America may no longer need to import energy.
• Among major nations, Mexico has the worst geography, comparable only to Afghanistan.
• Technology allows some countries to overcome their geographical shortcomings.
• An estimated 90% of global petroleum reserves are trapped in nonporous rock formations, including shale.

Empires rise or fall depending on their geographic and geopolitical position.

How did the ancient Egyptians build an empire that dominated their regions for hundreds of years?

Let’s start with geography. An empire or nation flourishes both culturally and economically when it has an advantageous geographic position. Before widespread globalization, nations were heavily dependent on the natural resources they had nearby, so regions with forests, rivers and oceans were more prosperous. Communities in harsh, mountainous, desert-like, or snowy areas struggled just to survive.

That’s why so many ancient empires were situated in regions with abundant food and water. A surplus of food and water allows a community to trade, grow their wealth and focus more effort on developing their cultural life and military power.

In ancient Egypt, for example, the Nile provided them with a constant water supply and easy trade routes; the surrounding desert kept the community together while serving as a barrier to outsiders. Meanwhile, artistic and cultural development was a central focus. The government forced people to build huge monuments attesting to the greatness of the pharaohs.

Another important factor in how a nation gains power and influence is an advantageous geopolitical position, that is, how their relations with other nations was influenced by geographic factors. After all, it’s difficult for a society to dominate a region if they’re surrounded by competing societies, as was the case in modern-day Germany and France. That’s a big part of the reason why the Egyptian empire was so powerful for so long – enemy nations rarely challenged them because doing so would mean crossing the sea or the desert.

These geographic and geopolitical factors are also apparent in the rise of other ancient empires, like the Ottoman and Roman empires. All in all, an empire’s power rested largely on factors outside their control, like fertile soil and natural barriers. The same holds true for the modern United States.

The United States’ supreme global position is largely the result of its geopolitical situation.

The United States is now an economic, political and military powerhouse. Why? Plenty of luck.

The United States has a great geopolitical situation. Its borders have been mostly protected from neighboring populations for hundreds of years. While European powers fought each other for centuries across the Atlantic, they ignored the United States, which became more and more organized and stable.

The most important geographical factor in US global dominance is its waterway network, however. The United States has 12 interconnected rivers, including the Mississippi, which is the longest navigable river in the world – a perfect route for trade.

These waterways allow for a lot of trade, which bolstered the nation’s economy. The country’s fertile land, ideal for growing large amounts of crops, also brought the country great wealth and more goods to trade.

And of course, a wealthy nation can build up its military, which gives it more sway in the global political landscape.

The United States was also careful about addressing outside political threats early on. The US bought Alaska in 1867 and annexed the Hawaiian Islands in 1898, so it already had defenses against dangers from outsiders before entering the Second World War.

After the war, the creation of NATO brought even more protection to the United States, as Countries like the Faroes and Cyprus could serve as launching points for American troops into Europe.

Today, no nation on earth possesses the manpower, industry and naval power necessary to conquer the United States. It’s in a very secure and comfortable geopolitical situation.

The United States is considering abolishing the policy that brought them global supremacy.

In 1944, the United States did something unheard of. After proving military and economic power during the war they proposed the Bretton Woods Agreement, which was aimed at reshaping the world in the wake of World War Two.

It ushered in a new era of globalization and allowed the US to establish a degree of global economic stability between the former Allies. The agreement contained several important points. It established a network of free trade and introduced a shared monetary system based on the value of the dollar, which in turn was linked to the price of gold. The agreement also granted the US Navy safe travel on trade routes all around the world.

The United States’ overall global influence increased tremendously. As a result, the US could manage international trade and help foster growth in potential new allies, like China, Japan and Germany. Plus, the American military gained the right to station itself all around the globe.

Overall, the effects of the Bretton Woods Agreement were so widespread that some countries redesigned their entire economic system around it. For example, free, safe trade meant some countries could reorient much of their production toward exports and start relying on imported raw material. They relied on American supremacy, then, to keep import/export routes safe and open to keep their economies stable.

But the days of the Bretton Woods Agreement are coming to an end. As it turns away from global trade and is less and less interested in protecting other nations’ trade routes, the US is reconsidering upholding the agreement.

If it does pull out of the agreement, the US will soon return to its status as a superpower acting mostly independently from other countries.

Demographic changes will destabilize many currently powerful economies.

Humans are living longer than ever in the modern era, thanks to a high level of nutrition and excellent medical care. That’s great, but it also means that global demographics are shifting wildly and creating problems we’ve never faced before.

In most modern nations, the proportion of older citizens is growing very rapidly, meaning governments have to find a way to take care of them.

In Japan, for instance, one-third of the population is already over 60. People rarely have children after a certain age, so if a large percentage of the population is over that age, the trend is unlikely to reverse. Governments in industrialized nations, like Japan’s, now have to support an unprecedentedly high percentage of older citizens.

This demographic change is going to cause a lot of strong economies to struggle. An aging population, of course, means there are fewer people to serve in the labor force and contribute to the nation’s wealth. So as the Baby Boomer generation continues to phase out of the workforce, the next generations will shoulder the responsibility of supporting their pensions and emergent health care needs, while also keeping the economy running.

The problem is that these following generations aren’t as large as the Baby Boomer generation. Generation X – people born between 1960-1980 – is 25% smaller, to name just one. These generations won’t be able to generate as much capital as their parents and grandparents did, and therefore won’t have the capital to buy what the economy is producing. That will lead to chronic economic slowdowns around the world.

Even countries with large surpluses will struggle to handle this economic transformation. About 30 of the world’s largest economies will reach the limits of consumer market growth within the next decade. These countries include China, the United Kingdom, Germany and Norway. That will result in a decrease in exports, and a lower standard of living for the sectors of the population that can no longer support themselves.

Technology development will slow down too, as there will be a shortage of capital and resources to conduct research.

From this perspective, it’s hard not to feel like we’re on the brink of a new era of unprecedented change and disorder.

Europe as we know it will cease to exist and may even erupt into war.

As we’ve seen, the world is changing faster than ever. Globalization, demographic shifts and climate change tell just part of the story. What does all this mean for Europe? It’s going to change completely.

First, the demographic changes we learned about in the previous book summary will chip away at European countries’ productivity.

Second, the European Union is falling apart. EU leaders are increasingly quarrelsome when it comes to managing the euro, for example, while countries like Greece struggle to recover from recent financial crises. Germany and France remain on the fence about bailout programs, and the United Kingdom seems poised to move away from the EU alliance entirely.

We’ve become accustomed to thinking of Europe as a peaceful and prosperous place, but it’s only been 70 years since European countries nearly destroyed each other in World War Two.

Germany is going to become a powerful player in the region again. The country is now very export-oriented but since the United States looks ready to abandon the Bretton Woods Agreement, Germany will soon have to deal with the consequences.

That means it’ll have to find other ways to get crude oil and metal, and maintain control of political and economic trends in Europe. Germany isn’t a superpower at the moment, but it also wasn’t a superpower just a decade before the war!

And there could be another war on the horizon between Germany and France. The two countries have a long history of waging war and competing for domination in the region. If the EU collapses and Europe falls into disorder, their old rivalry could re-emerge.

The United States will continue to thrive and forge new alliances as other nations fall apart.

Europe and Japan are poised to face serious problems in the coming decades, and we’ve just seen that Europe may even fall into war. Does that mean the United States will fall apart too?

Doubtful.

The US will remain strong because it depends very little on food, technology and energy resources from other parts of the world. The American market will remain stable because the US will fare much better than other Western countries in the face of demographic change. Why? Well, partly because of immigration and partly because the country still has a lot of potential to grow more domestic, internal markets.

Its location is also an advantage, as the Navy can easily protect its trade routes. Plus, if the Bretton Woods system falls apart, the United States won’t have to spend as much on military power anymore, as the country will no longer be responsible for protecting international trade.

Other countries will be desperate to align with the US which will have its pick of potential alliances – some of which will be new. There will be new opportunities to increase global influence, particularly in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia has a young, urbanized and relatively cheap labor force that could be extremely valuable to the US.

Lastly, if Iran gains control of its neighbors’ oil supplies after the fall of Bretton Woods, it could still become a very profitable ally for the United States. Iran is in a good position to control the surrounding region and if it became the United States’ ally, the United States would no longer have to consider it a military threat.

The weakening of the EU and the withdrawal of US overseas power will transform migration and foster terrorism.

It’s fairly easy for Westerners to travel the Western world these days. Trade agreements and the EU allow people to move from country to country looking for work.

This means more and more people are not living in the same place they were born. Without Bretton Woods and the EU, however, migration will become much more difficult, dangerous and expensive. Travel will become a privilege for the highly skilled or wealthy.

We’ll see an increase in travel restrictions as more countries begin requiring outsiders to apply for residency permits and expensive visas.

When the United States stops guarding the naval lanes, other nations or the travel industry will have to step in to ensure naval safety, which is very costly to maintain. Individual travel costs will increase as a result and few people will be able to afford to go overseas.

Only a small number of elites will be able to move abroad, or escape from distressed countries like Syria or Greece. Moreover, fewer countries will be desirable as relocation destinations. The US will be one of the last. The brain drain of people privileged enough to travel will make things even worse for the countries they flee.

Certain countries, like Pakistan, will also see an upsurge in terrorism once the United States withdraws its power. Pakistan has a great deal of internal conflict, and the US has been paying it considerable sums to protect US routes to Afghanistan. US bribes amount to roughly 8 percent of Pakistani GDP, and the US also provides cheap loans and military equipment.

When the United States withdraws this support, it will weaken the Pakistani state even further and make it harder for it to control militant groups like Al Qaeda.

Summary

The Bretton Woods Era

On July 1, 1944, hundreds of delegates from US-allied nations during World War II convened at a hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. They engaged in multilateral negotiations that led to the creation of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. These institutions helped Europe recover from the war and developed the basis for the trade-driven world economy that continues today. Americans controlled the outcome of the Bretton Woods conference as they had controlled the WWII Allied campaign against Germany and Japan.

“No geography on the planet is better suited than America’s for the technologies of deepwater navigation.”

At that time, the US had the most powerful navy in the world. Many of the Bretton Woods delegates expected it to behave as a victorious imperial power and to make Europe part of its territory. Instead, the American delegates said they wanted to make their markets accessible to anyone who wished to export to the United States. They proposed using the US Navy to protect global maritime trade, essentially promising an indirect subsidy to each country at the conference. Delegates ratified the Bretton Woods agreements with little hesitation on July 22, 1944. World War II ended the following year.

“In 2014, we are not witnessing the beginning of the end of American power, but the end of its beginning.”

The agreements at Bretton Woods were the primary impetus for subsequent developments, including the economic “miracles” that transformed Japan and Korea, the emergence of China as an economic power, and the formation of the European Economic Community and, later, the European Union. Today, the postwar, post-Bretton Woods era of free trade is on the verge of ending, and a new world order is taking shape on a haphazard basis, without a “grand plan” similar to the one that the Bretton Woods conference produced.

The Geography of Success

Historically, the three most important geography-based technologies have always been:

• The “balance of transport” – Economically successful countries usually find easy ways to transport people and products within their borders.
• “Deepwater navigation” – The capacity to navigate the seas and oceans allows countries to expand their economies globally and to keep hostile powers offshore.
• “Industrialization” – Machines can increase worker productivity and expand national economies by linking production to efficient energy sources such as oil and coal. The advent of steam power, the use of interchangeable parts and the development of assembly lines underpinned the start of industrialization.

“Looking forward just 25 years, China faces a far darker financial future than Europe and a far darker demographic future than Japan.”

The United States enjoys the best physical geography in the world for applying these technologies. Geography is the basis of US power. Wind, water and labor provided energy in the preindustrial world, but none of these is readily exportable. Places that lacked these resources couldn’t support large populations until technological developments brought new benefits to both the geographically advantaged and disadvantaged. For example, innovations in chemicals led to the introduction of fertilizers and a surge in agricultural output.

“Industrialization unified Germans as a country and as a people, to a degree unheard of elsewhere.”

In the 14th and 15th centuries, the technology of deepwater navigation unleashed “the Age of Discovery,” which shrank the world economically and culturally. Navigational tools such as the compass and the cross-staff made ocean transport feasible. The cross-staff allowed sailors to determine their direction and the latitude of their location.

“Far from being the crowning achievement of united Europe, the euro was guaranteed from day one to destroy it.”

Technology helped countries overcome their geographical shortcomings. Coal and steam allowed the development of railroads, which serve as “artificial waterways,” supplementing rivers in some nations and substituting for inland water passages in countries that lack them.

Rivers and Oceans

The United States has 12 navigable rivers that are collectively 14,650 miles long. These include the Mississippi River, the world’s longest such waterway at about 2,100 miles – longer than all the navigable rivers in China or Germany. The entire Arab world has only 120 miles of navigable rivers. America’s oceanfront geography gives it exceptional potential for port development. The largest and best natural harbors in the world are Chesapeake Bay, Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay. The US Midwest has the world’s biggest swath of high-yield farmland – and it’s proximate to the nation’s network of waterways.

“Instead of the painstaking micromanagement of Germany, American development happened organically.”

The United States fortified its oceanic buffers against enemy attacks by purchasing Alaska in 1867, annexing the Hawaiian Islands in 1898, and taking direct control of Puerto Rico and effective control of Cuba in the Spanish-American War of 1898. As a result, the United States is “largely immune to extrahemispheric invasion.”

Generational Shifts

Many countries capitalized on the Bretton Woods era by developing export-driven economies. China, Germany, South Korea, Ireland and Singapore are a few exporting havens that gained substantial economic power, without major investments in defense, through access to US markets and US-protected sea trade lanes.

“For Germany and other heavily technocratic European states, their development policy means that a local-consumption-driven model hasn’t been possible for 20 years.”

Yet by 2014, exports accounted for just 11% of US gross domestic product. The costs of sustaining the global system of free trade are substantial, but the strategic benefits are minimal. The US spends $150 billion per year to maintain its navy and $30 billion for the Marines Corps. As Americans readjust their priorities, the Bretton Woods system of free trade will end.

“The vast retirement preparation efforts of the [baby] boomers have deluged the world with financial fertilizer.”

Young adults’ spending patterns will stop propelling global economic growth. Normally, older members of society make up the smallest population segment and young members are the largest. Graphically stacking the young on the bottom and the old on top produces a “population pyramid.” That is how the population pyramid inverts as the US baby boomer generation ages. The boomers at one time accounted for a larger percentage of the US population than any other generation in US history. Gen X, the subsequent generation, accounts for the smallest. A similar demographic inversion is unfolding in every developed country. Japan’s population is older and aging faster than any other.

“Expansion of the Mexican drug war to all of North America…is emerging as the single greatest threat to the American way of life.”

The American inversion of age demographics is temporary. The US population is younger than the population of almost every other major society. Americans whose parents are baby boomers – Generation Y – outnumber Gen X by 35%.

Shale

For more than 200 years, most of the petroleum extracted in the world came from underground reservoirs. But nonporous rock formations, including shale, hold an estimated 90% of global petroleum reserves. The coupled application of two technologies, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – “fracking” – has made the United States the largest producer of oil and natural gas in the world. By 2020, North America will probably no longer need to import fuel.

“It is now a fairly conservative estimate to say that North America will be fully energy independent by 2020.”

America uses its naval power to protect international energy shipments to help its allies, not itself. The timing of the US shale energy boom coincides with waning American interest in the Bretton Woods system and widespread demographic inversions as global populations age.

Disorder

The Bretton Woods system is “bizarre by historical standards.” Countries enjoy unprecedented access to markets worldwide and have no need to guard their supply chains. Economic opportunities previously available only to major nations have helped historically weak countries, including Cambodia, Honduras, South Korea, Tunisia and Uruguay. Wars between economically powerful states were common prior to the Bretton Woods era. The world has been more peaceful since the era began. Economic development replaced military conflict as a principal tool of international competition.

“If Americans lost every scrap of land they held internationally, they would still be the most powerful country in human history.”

These global trends will soon expire. As the US withdraws from its role as the protector of global trade lanes, economic and energy-based crises will erupt in Europe and Asia; the Persian Gulf states will face financial and security calamities. Wars over resources will return and “history will restart.”

Types of Nations

As global disorder unfolds starting in 2020, nations will fall into six categories:

1. “State failures” – Modern states unlikely to remain intact include Greece, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Syria, Turkmenistan and Yemen.
2. “Decentralized states” – Their central governments will struggle to retain power, but Bolivia, China, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Russia and Sudan will avoid dissolution.
3. “Degraded states” – Their governments will remain, but other elements of society will weaken in Algeria, Brazil, Canada, Hungary, India and Saudi Arabia.
4. “Steady states” – Denmark, France, Peru, the Philippines and Sweden can sustain their current level of stability and obtain what they need for that purpose.
5. “Rising stars” – Argentina, Australia, Angola, Indonesia, Turkey, the United States and Uzbekistan are durable and can excel amid harsh conditions in international markets. Most have excellent geographies.
6. “Aggressive powers” – These countries – Angola, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Uzbekistan – also fall into one of the other five categories, but they stand out due to their individual propensity for invading neighboring countries and forming new alliances, political networks and patterns of trade.

American Allies

In Asia, the United States will have strong incentives to continue an alliance with Thailand and to form a new one with Myanmar. The strategic importance of South Korea and Taiwan is less apparent. America’s relations with South Korea and Taiwan will be a decisive test of the US commitment to support allied nations in the post-Bretton Woods era.

“European history has been on hold since the Americans restructured the world in the 1940s.”

The US will remain allied with the United Kingdom and will seek stronger relationships with Denmark and the Netherlands. These three European countries operate outside the euro zone. The single currency has not unified European banking and financial systems. Europeans launched the euro in 1999 in the absence of other forms of economic integration. A recession triggered fiscal crises and financial bailouts for Greece, Ireland and other euro-zone states.

“In the world to come, Americans won’t have much need for the rest of the world.”

Germany fully capitalized on the Bretton Woods system by becoming an economically and financially powerful country after losing World War II. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expanded into the former satellite states of the old Soviet Union, so Germany no longer shared borders with hostile powers. Limited trade could lead Germany to war to secure raw materials and access to foreign markets, the same motives that led it to start its last six wars.

Canada, Mexico and Beyond

Energy-rich Alberta is the youngest and wealthiest province in Canada, followed by Saskatchewan. Residents of Alberta will pay higher taxes to support Quebec and other provinces with older populations. If Alberta were part of the United States, it would be the richest state.

Mexico has the worst geography among major countries, comparable only to Afghanistan. Because Mexico is one of the most popular places in the world for foreign direct investment, it can avoid a capital scarcity that will envelop most of the developing world. War among rival Mexican drug cartels could expand to the United States and pose the “greatest geopolitical threat to the American way of life.”

Around the world, from 2015 through 2030, free trade will dissolve, the aged will outnumber the young, European disunion will deepen and China will falter. The United States will enjoy 15 years of market stability, economic growth at a moderate pace and easier access to energy.

Conclusion

The key message in this book:

Today, the United States dominates the globe both politically and economically, but we’re on the brink of some major changes. The US will withdraw its protection of global trade, and demographic and political shifts are going to weaken industrialized areas like Europe and Japan. Migration will decrease and instability will rise, but the US will seek out new allies and remain a superpower thanks largely to its unique geopolitical position in the world.

About the author

Peter Zeihan worked for 12 years with the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor before starting his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics.

Review 1

In his book The Accidental Superpower, Peter Zeihan argues that the United States is not the world’s superpower by design, but rather by accident. He attributes America’s rise to its unique geography, which has allowed it to grow and prosper while other countries have struggled.

Zeihan begins by examining the geographic factors that have contributed to America’s success. He notes that the United States has two vast oceans that protect it from invasion, a temperate climate that is conducive to agriculture, and a vast network of waterways that facilitate trade. These geographic advantages have allowed the United States to develop a strong economy and military, which has made it the world’s leading superpower.

Zeihan then goes on to argue that the global order is in the midst of a major transformation. He notes that many countries are facing demographic challenges, such as aging populations and declining birth rates. These challenges will make it difficult for these countries to compete with the United States, which has a young and growing population.

Zeihan also argues that the rise of automation and artificial intelligence will further erode the power of other countries. These technologies will allow the United States to produce goods and services more efficiently than other countries, which will give it an even greater advantage in the global economy.

In conclusion, Zeihan argues that the United States is poised to remain the world’s superpower for the foreseeable future. He attributes this to America’s unique geography and its advantages in the areas of technology and demographics. While other countries may challenge America’s dominance in the future, Zeihan believes that the United States will remain the world’s leading superpower for many years to come.

Here are some of the pros and cons of The Accidental Superpower:

Pros:

• Zeihan provides a unique and thought-provoking perspective on the future of the global order.
• He does a good job of explaining the geographic factors that have contributed to America’s success.
• He also provides a convincing argument that the rise of automation and artificial intelligence will further erode the power of other countries.

Cons:

• Zeihan’s analysis is based on a number of assumptions, which may not be accurate.
• He also tends to oversimplify complex issues.
• Some readers may find his tone to be arrogant and dismissive.

Overall, The Accidental Superpower is an interesting and thought-provoking book. It provides a unique perspective on the future of the global order and is worth reading for anyone interested in geopolitics. However, readers should be aware of the book’s limitations and take its conclusions with a grain of salt.