“God, give me the courage to change the things I can change, the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; and the wisdom to know the difference” – Irish prayer.
Part 1 of this article started with the same prayer and it is repeated here for the same reason. Nigeria and Tinubu need our prayers more than ever before. But, they need more than prayers. They need all of us to work together for a common purpose. Part 1 laid out how Buhari, lacking competence and character to be President, inherited a bad security and declining economic situation from Jonathan – and made everything much worse. Despite the menace of Boko Haram and the kidnap of Chibok girls, Nigeria recorded over five per cent Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth; and we were well on our way to poverty alleviation. But, the unprecedented insecurity and corruption in government drove many of us to accept Buhari as the alternative. We committed a horrible blunder. Buhari has proved to us that we can go down much further if care is not taken; and if we don’t work collectively to avert worse calamity. So permit me to start by pointing out some of the mistakes we have already made.
MISSING THE ROAD; GETTING NOTHING
“There is no quick easy solution to those [economic] challenges… But, I think the most important point is that you need to put reforms in place that allow people to bring in capital into the country in a way that they are secured and can take their money out when they choose to…” – Wally Adeyemo, U.S Deputy Secretary of Treasury.
America’s Treasury is like Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Finance and Wally was once called Wale. The Nigerian-American holds the second office in Treasury, not on account of nepotism (it is our turn), but because he was the most competent person President Biden could find for the job. Adeyemo was coming to Nigeria as President Tinubu was heading to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. I knew from my years living in the US and paying attention to that country’s diplomacy that Tinubu would not receive any special recognition and Nigeria would not benefit from the “free money” which Americans call grants. There would be no Economic Summits; no meeting with selected members of the US Business class. There would be nothing for us.
Apart from telling us politely but bluntly that there will be no US investment in Nigeria soon, Adeyemo hinted at the reasons why our President returned empty-handed. Most of these are already known to us; but Tinubu refused to listen because those trying to advise government were not in APC or were regarded as critics who should be ignored. As far as the previous FG was concerned, it was better for the nation to go down than to be saved by ideas from outside the cabal.
“Nigeria in revenue crisis with huge public debt” – Adedeji, new FIRS boss
The new Chairman of the Federal Internal Revenue Service, FIRS, raised the alarm by pointing out that FG’s spending of 96% of revenue on debt servicing was unsustainable was saying nothing new. Economists and financial experts have been saying the same thing in the last eight years to an FG headed by deaf people or those embarking on deliberate sabotage. Buhari, his Finance Minister and the Federal Executive Committee, FEC, were certainly aware of the revenue crisis, but, instead of embarking on vigorous revenue collection, they opted for more debt – including illegal N22.7trn Ways and Means loans. The economy was wrecked by the Buhari government, more thoroughly than an invading army.
Two major ways by which the FG, under Buhari, had refused to generate revenue was in crude oil production and export, as well as its giveaway programme to the richest Nigerians on account of duty waiver. Two recent reports will help illustrate the point. One said “2023 Budget in danger as crude output crashes by 470,000 bdp.” The other said “” FG plans review as tax waivers gulp N6tn annually.” Taken together, what we are experiencing is a situation in which a government, which routinely failed to generate revenue, can still afford to give away five times as much money as is spent on education, health and roads, put together, annually. I challenge anybody in government to prove to us that Nigeria derives N6trn benefits from the economic vultures eating us alive.
Obviously, the major reasons we are in this predicament are well-known. We don’t need foreigners to tell us what is wrong with us. Most of the problems – corruption, nepotism, appointments of absolute misfits, financial recklessness, bloated public sector including the Presidency etc – had been with us since 1999. In many respects, the military was more prudent in managing our finances. The only exception was Buhari/Idiagbon, 1984-5. Obasanjo kicked the ball rolling with N10 billion Poverty Alleviation Programme, PAP, which was an outright fraud. That template has been repeated at least twice under Buhari. First, we were told that meals were distributed to kids during COVID-19 lockdown. Then 1, 000 kids were employed for two months by the Minister of State for Labour. The scam gulped N52 billion; we have gone almost house to house in Lagos Island Local Government; and we can’t find one kid employed.
MOST OF OUR ENEMIES OF OUR PROGRESS ARE KNOWN
“We have met the enemy; and they are [our own people]” – Oliver Perry, 1785-1819
Clearly, every government from 1999 has been borrowing money to finance self-induced corruption. Otherwise, how can we explain $13-16 billion spent on power supply by OBJ’s government to increase power supply to 10,000MW by 2007 and we are still generating less than 5,000MW in 2023? We know the leaders responsible for our lack of development; and we also know some of their accomplices. We regularly treat them with the respect they don’t deserve. By so doing, we have ensured that big crime pays in Nigeria. It is only the poor and hungry fellow who steals a goat who is sentenced to heartless justices; who give those accused of stealing billions a slap on the wrist.
Therefore, we cannot make significant progress under Tinubu unless he is prepared to face the fact that lenders, globally, are aware of our present predicament. Most already believe that we have reached the limit of our capacity to service additional loans. Any lender still willing to lend money to Nigeria must be prepared to lose it in case of possible default.
AMCON is about to wind up with about N5trn toxic loans dumped on the CBN by bankers who are regarded as pillars of society and whose banks report record profits and declare huge dividends. They refuse to clear the mess they left with CBN on account of reckless loans they granted until 2009. Elsewhere in the world, governments would have ensured that the banks cleared their toxic loans which resulted in the 2008 banking crisis. Not here in Nigeria – where anything goes in banking. We are probably headed for another Failed Banks episode; like the one we had in 1994.
TINUBU NEEDS HELP MORE THAN WE REALISE
“It is easy to be brave when danger is far; it is easy to be generous when there is nothing to give” – Dr Samuel Johnson, 1709-1784
The English lexicographer and columnist for The Rambler in London, remains my favourite columnist till today. He dispensed philosophy with comments on current events in his days. Tinubu, who, on May 29, 2023, announced that “subsidy is gone”, talked before thinking through the consequences of his utterances. He was roundly applauded by know-nothings who urged newly elected or appointed officers to “hit the ground running”. We are all witnesses to the repercussions of taking vital decisions before obtaining all the information required to make the decision. The palliatives announced have turned out to be hoaxes; and very few people can possibly benefit while everybody suffers.
We all have three choices. We can leave Tinubu alone to create the Nigeria we want; we can pray and work that he fails; we can pray and work that he succeeds. As for me and my house, we will pray and work for success. But, we shall tell him the truth always – no matter the consequences of so doing.
IF THIS IS A JOKE, PLEASE STOP IT
“Mr President, do you want to hear the latest joke in town?”
“Don’t tell me, I appointed some of them to office” – Will Rogers, 1879-1935
President Tinubu has appointed some jesters into office. One promised to lift 133 million out of poverty in four years; the other recently announced that he will build two superhighways in the same four years. Can somebody please tell these comedians that we are not amused and to belt up?
The post Let Us Pray And Work For Tinubu To Succeed (2) -By Dele Sobowale first appeared on Opinion Nigeria.
