When former President Muhammadu Buhari was rounding up his second term in May this year, a wide range of post-mortem appraisals were done by many analysts, with emphasis on how the President had not lived up to expectation and also in areas where he had gained some grounds. But then, in hindsight, the deed had been done and there was no way anything could be undone about these ‘failures’, obviously. They only go on to serve as lessons for the new President, Ahmed Bola Tinubu and his team.

Be that as it may, though, President Tinubu has started off on a different note from his predecessor, and it’s not that great on all fronts. This is because there are Red Flags and uncomforting signs that have emerged, sadly. Red flags connote signs that this administration may be derailing into the path to failure. At this point, it is important to state, however, that these red flags or early warning signs are not a confirmation or prediction that the administration will fail. Rather, they are signals that in the event that there are actual future setbacks (God forbid) and Nigeria is not better off in 4 years’ time than when President Tinubu was handed the baton, no one should be surprised as to how these failures came about. Four events have for me, constitute these red flags.

First, the use of data and statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to indicate pyrrhic progress in the country’s macro-economic indices may imply that the government is towing the path of fool’s paradise, whereby favorable parameters are being used to define progressive indices or to downplay the gravity of a problem. While data does not lie, the parameters used to define data may be altered as wished. The NBS reported recently that the country’s unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The most astonishing context to this is that the previous report had put the unemployment rate at a massive 33%. At 33%, some experts also believe a minimal figure was quoted. The NBS said it ‘enhanced’ its methodology of collecting labour market data through the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS). This survey defined employed people as people who work at least 1 hour a week for pay or profit. That is quite a way to define employment! If the NBS makes use of similar ridiculous parameters to define other macro-economic indices like, say, food sufficiency, there won’t be any hungry Nigerians to report! This is a bad sign.

Second, if there ever is a relationship that is ‘overly cordial’, then the bromance between the Executive arm and current leadership of the country’s Legislative arm would qualify as one. You have to wonder what will happen to true oversight and checks and balances as is expected in a democracy. There is a thin line between the cooperation, cordiality and appropriate oversight amongst the 2 arms on the one hand, and then a choreographed extension of the Executive existing in the Legislature on the other hand. It is an open secret that the leadership of both chambers of the National Assembly emerged as a result of the endorsement of the Executive arm, despite the leadership positions being elective. It is difficult to see how the National Assembly won’t dance to the tune of the Asiwaju-led Executive. This is not a good sign.

Third, the number of cheers and jubilations that have greeted the appointment and confirmation of the President’s new cabinet members makes one wonder. With the current challenges at hand, and the enormity of the tasks facing the new ministers, one would expect that the least that should be on the appointees’ menus are celebrations. Rather, there should be reflections on the burden of being part of the decision makers of the most populous black nation, in arguably one of the most difficult times in the nation’s history. Even as it is evident that some of the appointees are present as a result of the contributions they made to the emergence of the President after the February 2023 polls, being rewarded with a cabinet slot is still a red flag if that is the main reasons why they occupy a cabinet seat!

Lastly, the protracted detention of the erstwhile chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) by the Department of State Services contains a familiar script used by previous administrations. I believe that one of the worst commissions anybody could aspire to head is the EFCC. It always does not end well for their chairmen. You cannot fight corruption without stepping on toes and attracting a few enemies while at it. The commission requires all the constitutional protection it can get. Moreover, the international community is watching this trend, which would have a ripple effect on the country’s corruption perception. Mr. Bawa may be guilty of the reasons why he remains in captivity. But is the continuous detention legal?

Aggregate the above red flags and you have what might potentially cause the current administration to nosedive if allowed to crystallize. As lovers of Nigeria, we cannot allow this to happen.

The post Four Red Flags Of The Tinubu Administration -By Sulaiman Aliyu first appeared on Opinion Nigeria.