With the Kogi 2023 governorship election exactly three months away, the jostle for Governor Yahaya Bello’s seat has gathered steam. Unfolding intrigues are bound to hold residents spell-bound till the end.

Mr. Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress, ADC; Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC; Muritala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Congress, SDP; Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; Olayinka Braimoh of the Action Alliance, AA; and Usman Jibrin of Accord are some of the candidates who are already caught in the web of intrigues and politicking for the Kogi top job.

There have been political scheming and manoeuvring with major political candidates across party and ethnic divides taking their game to the grassroots.

The question of ethnic divides along senatorial districts is still a serious issue. The rivalry between Governor Bello and the candidate of the social Democratic Congress, SDP, Muritala Ajaka has become intense.

Governor Bello is running the last lap of his second term. His choice of his kinsman from the same local government as APC candidate did not go down well with the other senatorial districts especially the Okun populated part of Kogi West who felt that their joint struggle and agitation for 25 years before events favoured the Egbira of the Central should have made the governor to select his successor from their Zone.

As it stands, unfolding events show that all the candidates will have to dig deep in their districts.

Kogi West

Contesting from the zone are Dino Melaye of the PDP, Leke Abejide of the ADC and Olayinka Braimoh of the AA.

The trio have answered relevant questions from stakeholders as to how they intend to emerge victorious in the race for Lugard House for the first time since the state’s creation.

Though the Kogi West Elders Council, which has been in the forefront of selecting a consensus candidate is yet to make its preferred candidate known, the visit of the highest social-cultural group, the Okun Development Association, ODA, to President Bola Tinubu, last Thursday, where the ADC candidate was picked out of the three to attend the meeting seems to suggest he is the preferred choice of the zone.

Leke Abejide has suddenly become the ‘Star Boy’ of the district. Many believed that his untainted image, good outing as a federal lawmaker and close knit relationship with President Tinubu, Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila and James Faleke, who have the ears of the President. are added advantages to his ambition.

Over the past months, the PDP house has continued to be in disarray with many strong bigwigs leaving the party. More worrisome is the fact that some of those who left the PDP are Melaye’s kinsmen.

Kogi State Commissioner for Information, Mr. Kingsley Fanwo, recently, threw a jab on the PDP candidate to cross over to the APC before the PDP house collapsed completely on him.

Kogi Central

The APC candidate, Usman Ododo, on the other hand, has an advantage over others because of the spread of the ruling party across the state. This is evident, going by the results polled during the last general elections where the party won all the Senate seats, six of the nine House of Representatives slots; and 22 of the 25 House of Assembly seats.

However, prevailing deep ethnic politics should be of great concern to the APC candidate as his zone has the least number of registered voters. Some observers were quick to note that the aggressive nature of the Egbira in not allowing any person speak about other candidates aside Ododo may also spur others to kick against him in their zones.

Eastern flank

The major concern for political actors in the zone is the fact that they parade the highest number of candidates. No fewer than14 of the 18 candidates are from the zone. Though the permutation of the area is in having the highest voting strength, the inability of their leaders to agree on a consensus candidate may spell doom for it in the election.

The SDP candidate, Muritala Ajaka, enjoys tremendous support from the youths of the zone but his open battle with Governor Bello, who he once shared a cordial relationship with is a major threat.

The two consultative outings of the SDP candidate to traditional rulers did not end properly. His first outing to the Ohimege of Koto ended in bad light when an encounter between him and the governor led to a shoot-out.

Bello later described Muri as an ‘Antelope trying to cross the pact of a Lion.”

Since the shoot-out, the SDP candidate has been off the radar of the state.

His Campaign office in Lokoja was razed twice by arsonists making some of his supporters worried that if he could not get headway with the first stage of consultation across the state, how would he stand the heat of campaign let alone winning the election.

Security concerns

Indeed, the concern of some stakeholders is centered on the issue of security. The burning of the SDP candidate’s campaign office in Lokoja twice within one month, the face-off between the governor and the SDP candidate, and other salient security threats, observers said indicate that the poll may be marred by violence as was witnessed in 2019.

They are urging the President Tinubu-led Federal Government to ensure that security personnel remain neutral and that the state is safe before, during and after the election.

Defections

There have been gales of defections and endorsements across the state since the primaries were concluded. The APC has gained more from defectors who flocked into its rank, followed by the ADC. The APC candidate has also enjoyed more endorsements than any other candidate. Last week, 300 former appointees of Governor Idris Wada pledged their support to Ododo, and five political parties collapsed their structure for him as well. In terms of defections, the PDP is the biggest loser so far. Many of its members have defected to the APC.

Zoning template

Stakeholders are also divided on the rationale and need for zoning of the governorship. Many are in favour of the West to produce the next governor because it has never done so in the history of the state but few argued that the Central should retain the seat for another 8 years to equal the 16 years reign of the Eastern flank.

Tinubu’s involvement

Last week, the President while hosting the Okun stakeholders promised to look at the agitation of the West to put an end to the political marginalization of the zone. President Tinubu who said he was privy to the sad development said he made an arrangement with the late Prince Abubakar Audu in 2015 to ensure power rotation to the West but Audu’s death at the edge of victory robbed the zone of the actualization, as Governor Bello inherited his votes. He said regardless of the gentleman agreement he had then, the zone must put its house in order as politics is a game of numbers.

Drama

The joke of the campaign is however on the Action Democratic Party, ADP.

Penultimate week, the crises in the ADP worsened when the party and its governorship candidate collapsed their structures in support of different candidates. Whilehile the party executives led by the state chairman, Prince Yahaya Mamma, collapsed the party’s structure and joined four other parties to endorse Ododo of the APC, at the NUJ press Centre; the ADP flagbearer, Mr. Julius Elukpo, on his part, stepped down for Ajaka of the SDP.

As it stands now, it is difficult to tell where the pendulum of victory will swing to but the trio of Ododo (APC), Abejide (ADC) and Ajaka (SDP) are the leading candidates of their respective zones.

The post Kogi 2023: Rising stakes, hurdles before 18 candidates first appeared on Opinion Nigeria.