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Caulfield

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The Caufield Cup Carnival continues on Wednesday where it is Coongy Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.

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Coongy Cup : View the Field and Odds for the Coongy Cup

Back Me

Not much of a 3YO Race but leaning towards 8 Ersa (Bet Now: $4.60) off the back of a nine length romp in a Ballarat maiden at this trip where she gave them an absolute spanking from the front, gave nothing else a look in and was eased down late. The run prior at Sandown, she was luckless and should have gone close to winning with clear air. Think with a positive ride, she’ll take running down.

Danger

2 Aztec State (Bet Now: $4.60) looks a gelding with a decent engine under the hood. Stablemate of Ersa that debuted over 1500m at Bendigo where the market wanted him with confidence late and despite being challenged in the straight, he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Improvement to come and the extra 100m should be fine. Leading contender.

Long Shot

Back to this level I find interesting with 7 Subrising (Bet Now: $10.00). She ran in the Edward Manifold at Flemington where not much went right for her…was she going to win? No, but I think she should have finished much closer. The run prior here in the Jim Moloney was a beauty and I reckon off that effort, she is certainly good enough to take this out.

Back Me

3 Ho Ho Khan (Bet Now: $23.00) is flying for Mitch Freedman. He comes through The Metropolitan where he tried to make a sustained run from near last and was entitled to knock up late but he kept finding the line and the run was very much full of merit behind Just Fine. Back to 2000m should be fine and now fifth up from a spell, he’s hard fit and ready to go.

Danger

13 Foujita San (Bet Now: $5.50) has finally found winning form and he can go on with it for Team Hawkes. He found a very thin race at Sandown just under a fortnight back and despite a few nervous moments late in the piece, he surged hard under Oliver to finish best for a deserving win. He’ll be strong at the end and off a win, his confidence should be up.

Long Shot

4 Steinem (Bet Now: $6.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. Maher/Eustace trained mare that resumed in the Stocks at The Valley where she was run off her legs and while she was never threatening Amelia’s Jewel, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind the star mare. Much better set up this time around so she can run an improved race.

Back Me

There have been a host of 2YO trials/jumpouts to start the season…nothing has caught my eye more so than 4 Coleman (Bet Now: $2.60), on debut for Matt Laurie. His trial/jumpout work, especially his jumpout at Sandown, was just so good to the eye. $550,000 purchase, I am confident he will win this and stamp himself as an early contender for the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast. Keen on his prospects.

Danger

8 Arabian Summer (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a pretty sharp filly for Team McEvoy. Daughter of Too Darn Hot that jumped out down the straight at Flemington and she was one of the more impressive performers in terms of the juveniles. Evident she is still raw and new to the caper, but it’s clear she has an engine under the hood and stable is in form. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

Giving respect to 3 Alaa Plenty (Bet Now: $20.00) for Moody/Coleman. Son of Shalaa that comes here well educated to my eye. He trialled at Cranbourne and moved well to my eye behind Eject before a jumpout at Pakenham when placing and went nicely. Not a lot of confidence with these early 2YO races but I’ll be giving good respect to the stable.

Back Me

7 Insulation (Bet Now: $2.25) seems the most obvious for Moody/Coleman. This gelding is a few weeks between runs since racing at this trip at Flemington where he was back off the speed and held up at times but got out early enough to finish the race off. Just couldn’t quite get there when second to Fearentless. Tends to race well with the extra time between runs and he strikes a very winnable race.

Danger

3 Pesto (Bet Now: $6.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This gelding has had two runs back from a spell, both in Sydney. Did more than enough fresh at Randwick behind Strait Acer before racing a fortnight back at Rosehill and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Pierossa, who was bursting to win a race. Getting towards peak fitness and Visors first time, there is intent.

Long Shot

5 Wahine Toa (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Maher/Eustace mare that is capable with her best. She resumed over 2000m here several weeks back where she just looked in need of the run and that’s how it eventuated behind impressive winner, First Immortal. Proven 2400m+ horse at metro level, she has more upside than most and has the Maher/Eustace polish.

Back Me

7 Shock ‘Em Ova (Bet Now: $2.40) is on the short side but that said, I do think he has a bit on this lot. Alex Rae trained gelding that ran over the mile here a few weeks ago where he looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments in the straight, he surged hard late to win and win well. Getting towards peak fitness and up to 2000m, he’ll take beating against these.

Danger

4 Hennessy Lad (Bet Now: $5.50) is bred to appreciate the trip and has solid form lines around him. He was on speed throughout last time over 1800m at Sandown and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off and tired late behind Foujita San. I think with a more conservative steer, 2000m will be okay and the depth here, as a whole, is thin.

Long Shot

10 First Light (Bet Now: $19.00) is knocking on the door tow in for Chris Waller. Whether it is here, not sure, but he draws soft. Seemed to have every chance at The Valley last time, looking the winner on the turn but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Asgoodassobergets. Think that form is solid enough for a race like this and has the Waller polish.

Back Me

3 Fetch (Bet Now: $12.00) is worth an each way speck for mine. O’Dea/Hoysted camp haven’t quite set the world on fire in Melbourne this Spring like they did 12 months ago but this mare should be suited compared to first up where she resumed in a 955m race at The Valley and just didn’t seem 100% happy with that set up behind Shirshov. 1100m, bigger track, run under the belt, she can run a much improved race.

Danger

2 Dancing Alone (Bet Now: $3.40) is a progressive mare for Bryce Heys that comes here off the back of a sharp win down the straight at Flemington where she led throughout under a perfect front running steer from Blake Shinn, with the mare giving nothing else a look in, winning well. Harder here, but hard to knock the way she’s going and rates as one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

14 Luna Cat (Bet Now: $15.00) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it. Team Hayes trained mare that looked a big price when racing at the midweeks at Sandown when on speed throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten, but she found under pressure to fend them off and get the job done. Tricky gate, but off a win, she commands respect.

Back Me

4 Polanco (Bet Now: $9.00) will land on speed and prove hard to run down. He comes back to 1400m after racing over the mile here last time when landing on speed and doing work but credit to him, he kept finding and only got the staggers late behind Shock Em Ova. That form, I think, will read strong for this, and I reckon back to 1400m is a big tick. Hard to run down I’d suggest.

Danger

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 12 Fearless Writer (Bet Now: $6.00). This mare resumed over 1200m at Mornington where she looked like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out but she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Extreme Step. 1/1 second up, maps soft, Blinkers first time, there is plenty on paper to suggest there will be intent.

Long Shot

7 Big Brew (Bet Now: $8.50) is knocking on the door to win for Team Hope. Few weeks between runs since racing in the Shock Em Ova race mentioned above where he got back to near last in the run and spotted them way too much head start but didn’t mind the he finished off late to run a narrow second. He’ll likely be spotting them a start but should be quite strong at the end.

Back Me

Fitter I like 13 Dashing (Bet Now: $5.00). Aaron Purcell trained four year old that resumed over 1400m at Sandown where he kept finding the line from off the speed but just couldn’t quite get the win when second to Rheinberg. Staying at 1400m I hate but has a good racing style a stack of upside to come. He rates highly.

Danger

11 Jennilala (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality mare for Maher/Eustace that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the Autumn when a narrow second in the SA Oaks at Group l level, so we know she has the class/quality to run well here and if connections have eyes on Stakes races, you’d like to think she will go close in a race like this. Jumpout work has been encouraging, watch the market.

Long Shot

1 Maotai (Bet Now: $7.00) is dangerous if they let him roll on speed. For some reason, they keep riding him with cover and the horse hates it. He gets his head up, pulling and reefing…it’s ugly viewing, which was the case at The Valley. Love him up in trip and hopefully Pinn is allowed to take the handbrake off, let him run and give them something to chase.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Shock Em Ova

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Coleman

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Polanco

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 7

Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 14

Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 12, 13

Leg Four: 1, 7, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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