The second Premier Lacrosse League semifinals matchup features the No.2-seed Cannons taking on the No.3-seed Waterdogs in what could end up being the best game of the postseason so far. When these two teams last met, the Cannons secured a 12-8 victory. Both teams tied their season-low in total goals in what was an unusually slow-paced game. Let’s take a look at where the betting edges sit on Sunday.

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Waterdogs LC (-1.5) vs. Cannons LC

Odds via BetMGM.

The Waterdogs enter as 1.5-point favorites and the total is as high as 26.5. While the total isn’t unusually high for either team, it is high when considering how these teams played when they last met. Both teams have utilized the “concede and defend” approach at the faceoff this season, with Waterdogs opting to have do-it-all midfielder Zach Currier take the faceoff. The result was the Waterdogs winning almost every faceoff, but not generating many quality shots off the faceoff. 

I expect Waterdogs to potentially change up their strategy. We could see both teams choose to faceoff with a long-poles — which should lead to a ton of messy scrums. With both teams equipped to defend transition opportunities off the faceoff, I expect to see fewer transition goals and for Cannons and Waterdogs to value their 52-second possessions, leading to another low-scoring game.

This matchup also features the top two defenses in terms of defensive efficiency. The Cannons and Waterdogs are only allowing goals on 24.3% and 25.2% of possessions, respectively. Both teams also rank at the top in offensive efficiency metrics, but I think the defenses will prevail given the faceoff strategy and goaltenders. Waterdogs starter Dillon Ward missed last game against the Cannons, but he’s made an average of 16 saves and allowed just 10.2 goals per game in his past six starts. On the other end, Colin Kirst has allowed just 11.1 goals per game and is stopping an average of 13.6 shots in his nine starts.

Anticipate both goalies to play well Sunday and bet this game to stay under 26.5 points at -105 on BetMGM.

As far as player props go, I’ll be betting Marcus Holman to stay under 4.5 points. Even though we’re not getting -105 odds, like we did last week, -138 is still a great price to bet Holman to stay under 4.5 points. Holman has only had five or more points in four of 11 games this season, including his most recent game against Waterdogs. The Waterdogs actually did a decent job of limiting Holman last game, despite him recording four points. He had two goals on two shots on goal against backup Matt Deluca and both came in the first half, before Waterdogs opted to actively shut off Holman. Expect them to limit his touches as much as possible and dare the Cannons to beat them with their other personnel. Bet Holman to stay under 4.5 points at -138 on FanDuel.

I’ll also be betting Jack Hannah to stay under 2.5 points. Hannah isn’t afraid to shoot the ball and it’s often feast or famine. He’s had three games with four or more points and five games of two points or less — including just one goal in the most recent meeting between Cannons and Waterdogs. Hannah is fairly two-handed, but is a dominant righty. At a -110 price (BetMGM), there is value in betting Hannah to stay under 2.5 points.

Picks: Under 26.5 | Marcus Holman Under 4.5 Points | Jack Hannah Under 2.5 Points

Read my other PLL Semifinals betting preview here.

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