Golf betting tips: US Open final round

4pts Rory McIlroy to win the US Open at 9/4 (General)

2pts Sebastian Munoz & Tommy Fleetwood at 21/10 (General)

1pt Ben Carr & Yuto Katsuragawa at 5/1 (SpreadEx, 9/2 general)

1pt Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay & Viktor Hovland at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Betway)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Golf needed a fabulous US Open and, despite grumblings over scoring in a record-breaking renewal, it has one. What more could we really ask for than Rickie Fowler and Rory Mcilroy, the game’s most popular duo, topping the betting heading into the final round? If that’s not enough then greed really has taken over.

Technically, Saturday saw Los Angeles Country Club play a little bit easier than it had on Friday, but remember we were now left with only those who made the cut. As a collective they played the North Course to an average of 71.85, still lower than some would like, but it was clear to those watching either live or on repeat that it was a constant test.

Come the end of it, we were left with something close to as-you-were: Rickie Fowler now joined in the lead by Wyndham Clark after a two-shot swing at the final hole, Rory Mcilroy still favourite, and Scottie Scheffler still threatening after late fireworks saw him play holes 17 and 18 in a combined three-under par.

One of this quartet should win the tournament, with history and their collective strength all against the likes of Harris English, Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson. English still counts according to the stats, 48 of the last 49 winners having been within four shots as he is, but ahead of him are two of the sport’s hottest players, plus two of its very best.

Followers of Monday’s pre-tournament preview have had a great run out of Fowler and my feelings haven’t changed. The case revolved around the strength of his form and in fact an identical one could’ve been made for Clark. Winning was always the question mark and so it remains, both entering new territory from the final group.

Fowler has a dozen top-10s at this level including second at Augusta and in the Open, but always he was playing catch-up. His best chance came in the 2014 PGA Championship when, as had been the case a month earlier in Liverpool, it was McIlroy who proved just too good, but this time he is the one out in front.

Nine years have since passed but my verdict is that history will in a sense repeat, and that RORY MCILROY will win the US Open. Certainly, at the prices he’s the one to be on from the sort of stalking position he so enjoys and one he has in fact never had in a major championship.

For so long, the fault with McIlroy was that he was not close enough to win, each of his four majors so far having come from the front. Even at Augusta in 2018, it’s easy to forget that this squandered opportunity in fact saw him begin the final round three behind Patrick Reed. It remains his best chance there since he shot a final-round 80 in 2011.

In the Open, it took until last July to really begin round four back where he wants to be and while a closing 70 for many will serve as evidence that he just doesn’t have ‘it’ anymore, I think it might prove to be the missing piece of the jigsaw. We often talk about players needing a taste of contention before converting a chance, and it’s possible McIlroy just needed to re-learn that skill.

At the sort of course he so enjoys, one which is tough but offers birdie chances, he’s been a picture of control all week and if that continues he is going to be very hard to beat, especially having survived a poor putting day to remain right on the heels of the leaders.

I also like his draw. McIlroy beat Scottie Scheffler to the TOUR Championship last August and beat him again in the consolation at the WGC-Match Play in March. Both will know what’s expected of them today but the two-shot advantage held by McIlroy may prove too big a gap for even Scheffler to bridge.

None of this is to say I expect the leaders to implode, but Clark started to hit some very poor approaches in round three and it feels unreasonable to expect him to exude the same poise we saw at Quail Hollow. As for Fowler, it was always a big ask to end a four-year winless run at the very highest level and in a US Open, too.

My final point on McIlroy is that I do believe Brooks Koepka’s PGA win could play a part in finally solving this complicated puzzle. That was the day Koepka took over as the undisputed best of this generation in the eyes of many and again, Koepka had needed to fail at Augusta before he triumphed at Oak Hill.

McIlroy failed at St Andrews, where he was long odds-on during the final round, and if he can carve out a similar position by again bossing the front-nine, I don’t think he’ll make the same mistake twice.

For those who prefer Scheffler, which many will, I’d advise seeking out the best of the top American prices. He’s 7/2 there currently, which isn’t far off his outright odds, and you won’t have to worry about McIlroy. Anyone who believes the final group will be overwhelmed should very much consider backing both options.

Best two-ball bets for the final round

Another long night awaits and I’ll begin it by supporting a player we successfully opposed yesterday, BEN CARR, who looks a value underdog to beat David Puig (1656 BST).

Carr is an amateur and we still don’t know much about him, but his long-game was fully five strokes better than Puig’s in the third round as the big-hitting Spaniard sprayed it everywhere only to rank sixth in putting.

That alone is enough to convince me to take the outsider, especially as Carr finished strongly, with odds of 13/10 probably overstating a gap which may not even exist.

Carr is up against it to steal top amateur honours but Gordon Sargent will be feeling the heat having struggled badly, producing some of the worst ball-striking numbers in the field.

Sargent’s immense power brings that kind of volatility and I want to take him on with YUTO KATSURAGAWA, undoubtedly less promising but a good deal more steady and, crucially, not really faced with any distractions here (1740).

With Sargent facing three genuine threats in that top amateur battle it’s not hard to envisage things spiralling out of control should he stumble early, and we’re getting 6/4 about the Japanese whose long-game was far superior yesterday.

Sam Bennett’s goatee wasn’t the only thing that disappeared overnight into Saturday, his iron play having become shambolic, and Jordan Smith’s fairways-and-greens game might just win their two-ball by default, albeit Smith is odds-on and doesn’t make a great deal of appeal against a promising American.

Instead my bankers for the evening are SEBASTIAN MUNOZ (1807) and TOMMY FLEETWOOD (1851), who can be backed in a double at just upwards of 2/1.

Munoz ranks second in strokes-gained approach and was peppering pins again on his way to a frustrating 72, which was on course to be a fair bit better until a double-bogey at the 17th.

He’s been hitting it well for months now and more of the same can see him account for Nick Hardy, who went backwards over the weekend in last year’s US Open and may well continue to do so.

Fleetwood is known for his flying finishes, two of which have produced major top-fives recently, and firming conditions will suit him more than Sam Stevens. Stevens did us a favour against an amateur yesterday but is around 20 spots below Fleetwood in the tee-to-green stats, lacks the Englishman’s experience, and should be vulnerable.

Austin Eckroat to beat Andrew Putnam made some appeal based on their contrasting putting stats but the simple fact is that Putnam is one of the most skilled putters on the PGA Tour, so we shouldn’t bank on a narrowing of that wide gap tonight.

Finally then I’ll sign off with a small-stakes treble on MATT FITZPATRICK (2057), PATRICK CANTLAY (2108) and VIKTOR HOVLAND (2119).

Fitzpatrick plays with Collin Morikawa, who has outperformed him on the greens so far, and it’s the reigning champion I prefer. He’s produced several good final rounds under difficult conditions in 2023 and can sign off his US Open year in style, as Francesco Molinari did his Claret Jug tour at Portrush.

Cantlay is in with Padraig Harrington, a player I gave strong mention to earlier in the week, but Harrington said pre-tournament that keeping pace with the youngsters over 72 holes is the problem. He also talked about how his low ball-flight could be an issue when things firm up and Cantlay closed with a 66 at Oak Hill last month.

It was there that Hovland collected yet more precious experience before going on to tough it out at the Memorial on a brutal final day. He can complete the treble against Min Woo Lee, who is still figuring all this out and unfortunately may continue to slide down the leaderboard.

Posted at 1215 BST on 18/06/23

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