This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 PGA Championship. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

The second major of the golf season is officially upon us as the world’s best venture just outside of Rochester, NY to play the 2023 PGA Championship. Oak Hill Country Club, host in 2013, will see its first major action since a major overhaul in 2019. Will the golf course put players in their place? Will LIV golfers match their impressive showing at Augusta National in April? With a bounty of storylines, there is a lot to cover this week. Straps yourselves in as we begin our preview with this week’s golf betting odds.

2023 PGA Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 15th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The PGA Championship:

• 2022 – Justin Thomas (-5)
• 2021 – Phil Mickelson (-6)
• 2020 – Collin Morikawa (-13)
• 2019 – Brooks Koepka (-8)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2017 – Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2016 – Jimmy Walker (-14)
• 2015 – Jason Day (-20)

The LIV players will rejoin their PGA brethren for the PGA Championship this week. Jon Daly and Tiger Woods will be sorely missed, but like The Masters, this field will provide ample talent for a hopefully excited weekend at Oak Hill. 156 players will tee it up with top 70 and ties making the cut.

The Top 100 golfers in the world qualify for the field while the PGA can invite others. Cameron Tringale, #102 in the world is not in the field, while Joel Dahmen was invited. Dahmen could be an invite off of the steam he gained from his appearance in Full Swing. In total, though, 18 LIV players will play in the event. The added boost from the LIV Tour made The Masters more intriguing as Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, and Brooks Koepka all made runs at the green jacket before being held off by Jon Rahm.

Jason Dufner — in the field — won the event in 2013 when Oak Hill last hosted. Since that event, the course has undergone a full makeover which we need to address. While the course is long for a Par 70, the changes to its layout could make some of the statistics from this victory not as noteworthy.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler headline the field while Rory McIlroy slips a bit down the betting board perhaps due to his recent woes in bigger events. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele have crept up a bit because of recent form while sports betting sites will not give you a discount on either Brooks Koepka or Dustin Johnson. DJ is coming off of a playoff victory over Branden Grace and Cameron Smith at LIV Tulsa. Are we getting a discount on Cam Smith?

Let’s take a look at Oak Hill and some relevant statistics before highlight a few golfers to keep an eye on ahead of our picks.

2023 PGA Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Oak Hill CC
• Date: May 18 – 21
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,394
• Greens: Bentgrass

In 2019, Oak Hill Country Club was restored to bring back some of the zest of its original carnation. Let’s start with the good news for players. Fairways were widened, a touch. Thousands of trees have been removed.

Now, the bad news. The course has been lengthened. Designers found additional yardage for tee boxes stretching Oak Hill out to a formidable 7,400-yard Par 70. Further, all of the greens were redone. They are relatively small for the size of the course and completely bentgrass. With a course that will demand accuracy and length, smaller greens will likely mean less greens in regulation. With the weather forecasted ahead of the tournament being pretty cold — especially in the morning — we can anticipate the course will be even longer.

How about some details? Well, the two Par 5’s span over 600 yards. Given the temperature, we shouldn’t be surprised if players layup to their favorite wedge zone to try and throw a dart for birdie. While there are some shorter Par 4’s on the course, a handful are still above 460 yards with one exceeding 500. There are two Par 3’s that will play north of 230 yards. The course will be long. So, will bomb and gouge be the play?

While the rough is longer and the fariways are a bit wider, the removal of several trees means the course should be open enough for players of length to take big swings and just gouge it out of rough if they miss the fairway. Of the players that play on the PGA Tour, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young lead the field in driving distance over the last 36 rounds. Min Woo Lee is in the top 10.

Strokes gained form tee-to-green seems to be a strong statistic to consider this week given the uncertainty of what sight lines players will have from the thick rough. Players who can position themselves off the tee to dial it in on approach should succeed. Rory McIlroy sits inside the top ten for this category, as well, while Scottie Scheffler leads over his last 36 rounds.

So, what happens if players inevitably miss greens? The course seems to be set up in the cold to not favor a wildly-low scoring affair. With a windier day forecasted for Friday and some potential rain over the weekend, players will need to scramble for pars around the smaller bentgrass greens. Justin Thomas has been playing very well tee-to-green but has not been able to putt enough to land his first victory of the season. However, Thomas sits in the top ten in SG: ARG and showed the type of gumption requisite to survive a tough course at least year’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills. Thomas gained 6.3 strokes putting at least year’s championship. If he replicates that type of performance at Oak Hill, he will be very tough to beat.

As for LIV, determining how impactful form on that tour is for these major fields is difficult given this being only the second opportunity to do so. For me, talent trumps all. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are more than battle tested and should fit the beefy version of Oak Hill with no issue. Cameron Smith is not the most accurate driver of the golf ball but we have seen what his capabilities are with regard to scrambling around the green when pressure is ratcheted up to the maximum. Coming off of a good tournament in Tulsa, the price on Smith might be good enough to consider for an outright bet.

So, in summary, Oak Hill’s renovation has lengthened the course out to meet the demands of the current professional golfing landscape. Fairways were widened some and several trees were removed. However, the greens are all new and small enough to demand a strong short game. With the weather being cold and potentially windy, the winner of this year’s PGA Championship is going to have to make big putts down the stretch.

As for statistics, we will emphasize tee-to-green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting on Bentgrass, SG: ARG, and of course, SG: Approach. Given the new length, many players should find themselves in the 175-yard bucket. We will add that category for proximity, as well to check in on recent form.

Let’s take a peek at a few golfers to consider this week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Justin Thomas +2200

For the reasons mentioned above and his history at PGA Championship setups, I think we need to consider Justin Thomas as a potential outright winner at Oak Hill. His tee-to-green game has been remarkable while he continues to display a penchant for getting up and down around the greens. The only question is, can he make enough putts?

Who knows, frankly? However, if he does make enough putts as we’ve seen in the past, Thomas will be in the mix on Sunday. His performance down the stretch — albeit aided by a Mito Pereira miscue — was remarkable. When Thomas is within a few shots on Sunday, the iron game will provide plenty of opportunities. If the course plays hard, we’ve seen Thomas muck it up and survive in great fields.

His best number at the time of this writing is a 30/1 at Pointsbet. This feels a bit absurd despite the field strength. If you are interested, pull the trigger.

Cameron Young +3500

Full disclosure, I have a Cameron Young future bet for this tournament that was placed after a glorious session at the no-limit hold’em table months ago. At the time, my interest in Cam Young was predicated on his length, his play in tougher fields, and his familiarity with Oak Hill. At the time, I also felt like Young was on the precipice of winning his first event.

Now, as we await our second major, the future bet does not feel as strong. You can find Young at 35/1 on PointsBet. If the bomb and gauge approach proves useful, our confidence in Young should sore. Only Rory McIlroy can compare off the tee and Young certainly possesses the length to reach greens out of the rough. The only concern is the short game. Given the weather conditions and the smaller greens, Young is going to have to dial it up on approach as he has not shown the metal to hang with the class of this field with regard to scrambling.

While this is not an impossibility, I feel far less confident in Young heading into the week than I did months ago. Depending on tee times, he makes for an interesting FRL bet on Day 1 if he can get out once the afternoon warms up a bit.

Tyrrell Hatton +4000

Hatton is coming off of back-to-back T5 finishes at the Wells Fargo and AT&T Byron Nelson. He enters this week 7th in T2G and 8th in ball striking off his last 36 rounds on the PGA Tour. Hatton has been knocking out the door this season with big finishes at the API and the Players to accompany his recent success.

His ball striking has been remarkably consistent and Hatton can putt. While he gets a bit explosive when things don’t necessarily go his way, we are not concerned with Hatton’s play in the toughest weather conditions. His win in the weather at the API years ago was incredible, representing the steady hand in the elements while golfers melted down. The putter seems to gain each week and should only serve as a weapon when he can dial in his approach.

Hatton feels like a great value at this price in a field with very little value because of the strength. If we are sliding down the board a bit at this event, Hatton seems to be on the verge of breaking out. If he is still available, Hatton will be a very sneaky OAD play with a big prize purse on the line. If you need to catch up, now is the time.

Joaquin Niemann +9000

We watched as the LIV Tour players performed well at Augusta this season. Niemann landed a T20 finish while other members of the tour made waves in the top 10. Niemann has always been a wonderful driver of the golf ball. His length and accuracy should serve well at Oak Hill.

Like Justin Thomas, Niemann checks pretty much all of our boxes except for putting. When Niemann won at the Genesis in 2022, decimating the field over four rounds, his ball striking was immaculate while his around-the-green game was superb. That level of performance at Oak Hill should put him in position to contend on Sunday.

At 90/1, we are able to wager a very minuscule amount for a nice payday. I think Niemann offers some value down the board as both an outright and a top finisher bet given these odds. He will surely be in consideration as I am finalizing my card.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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