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NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 4-6

Another one-game betting card in the NBA on Thursday, but we have games on the board through Saturday, so we might as well rip through the next few days of games. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.

So far, I’m only invested in any plays that you see a unit distinction next to. Otherwise the play is something I’m leaning towards, and may add closer to game time. Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.



Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Thursday)

I linked the Warriors in a ML parlay with the Celtics from Wednesday night, keeping the play alive heading into Thursday. Boston’s home win in Game 2 now makes it 15 times in a row in the NBA that the home team has lost Game 1, but then gone on to bounce back and win Game 2. We’ll bank on the Warriors to extend that streak to 16. If you missed out on Wednesday’s play, you could look to play the Warriors on a double result to win Game 2 and the series (+185), which I think is very live.

Looney has been an animal on the glass this postseason. Looking at his last six games, he’s gone over 13.5 boards five times, and his lone under was 13 in a game against the Kings. He’s averaging 18.8 rebounds during that span, and four of those six games have seen Looney rip down 20 or more boards.

Looney snagged another 23 rebounds in Game 1 against the Lakers in 29 minutes, so the matchup doesn’t seem to phase him. I’m a little weary of the juice on this one, but it’s an over or pass. Some other plus money plays you could look to would be O4.5 1Q rebounds (+115) or an ALT of 15+ (+110).

Davis was terrific in Game 1, pouring in 30 points on an efficient 11-of-19 shooting in 44 minutes. It’s the third time AD has gone for 30 or more this postseason, and he followed the first two up with duds — 12 and 16 points. He’s now stayed under this number in four of seven postseason games, and I’d expect some adjustments to be made to limit Davis from the Golden State game plan.


Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (Friday)

The Celtics found their groove in Game 2, and wound up blowing out the 76ers in Joel Embiid’s return. They did so even with a complete no-show from Jayson Tatum, finishing with a 7-7-3 line and 1-for-7 shooting in just 19 minutes (due to foul trouble).

While I don’t expect Boston to play to its ceiling and Philly to play to its floor again, I do think the price on this game is short. The Celtics were short favorites in the only game played in Philly this season with both teams at full strength — you may recall they won on a Jayson Tatum 3-pointer for the win in a Saturday night primetime game. Pricing this game the same would infer that both teams are at full strength one again, and that’s clearly not the case.

Joel Embiid was a fraction of himself in his Game 2 return, and while some improvement is to be expected, it would be unrealistic to think he’ll be anywhere near 100%. The Celtics have been a tremendous road team this season, and have arguably been better on the road in the postseason going back to last year’s NBA Finals run.

I think this number is probably a few points short on the C’s, so I’ll take a rare buy-low opportunity of them.


Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (Friday)

The Nuggets won both games in Denver by double digits, and while the series now shifts to Phoenix with the Suns desperate for a win, they have a big problem. Chris Paul’s groin injury is serious, and he’s going to miss at least the next few games of this series (from what I hear it’ll ultimately be much more long-term if the Suns did find a way to extend the series).

While a lot of faith will continue to be put in the hands of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, who are both tremendous players, the rest of the roster just isn’t good enough — and that was when Paul was healthy and playing big minutes.

Paul’s minutes will have to be filled by some combination of Cam Payne, Damion Lee, Torey Craig and Josh Okogie. That’s not going to fly against this cohesive Denver starting five, that also as a massive depth advantage. Historically speaking, Game 3 is a Suns spot, but in this scenario it’s Nuggets or pass.

I think if I put a play in on Denver, this will be my route, rather than points in Game 3. I’m pretty confident that Denver can steal one of these road games now that Paul’s absence will cause such depth issues for the Suns. I don’t know which game it’ll be, but if the Nuggets can go back to Denver up 3-1, they’ll be sizable favorites in Game 5. By playing the series line, we don’t have to pick which game Denver wins, just get one and give us that +105 price tag on the Game 5 moneyline. You’d also be able to hedge at that stage if you prefered.

When Paul is out of the lineup, Payne generally steps up. He played 15 games without Paul this season, averaging 7.1 assists in over 30 minutes. The issue is, I don’t think they can trust Payne with that large of a role in this series. I think the minutes will be split up, and the ball will be more in Booker’s hands.

Booker averaged 6.5 assists in 14 games played without CP this season, and his overall assist numbers have spiked when Durant is in the lineup. Booker has averaged 7.5 assists in the early going in this series, and should see a nice pump with CP now completely out of the rotation. Strong lean to the over here, with Booker essentially being featured as the point guard.


New York Knicks at Miami Heat (Saturday)

The Heat looked like the No. 1 seed that they were in the east last season when they knocked out the Bucks in five games, and they’ve continued to look the part on the road in the second round. Miami stole Game 1 in New York, but the storyline was Jimmy Butler’s ankle injury.

Butler predictably missed Game 2, as the injury looked pretty bad, but the schedule also dictated rest — Game 2 was Tuesday, and Game 3 isn’t until Saturday. The Miami role players are tough as nails, as they were in the game until the final seconds of what was a must-win game for the Knicks on their home floor.

I fully expect Butler to return on Saturday after nearly a week off, which will move this line in favor of the Heat. It may still all be a mirage, but the Heat offense has been scorching hot in the postseason. The Knicks are in trouble down in Miami.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.


The post NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 4-6 appeared first on Canadian News Today.



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