The short-lived armed rebellion by the Wagner Group, a private militia group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, could weaken Russia's military leadership and provide an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to launch a successful counteroffensive, according to analysts. The Wagner Group had been Russia's most effective unit in Ukraine and its disbandment could impact Russia's military performance on the battlefield. However, the Institute for the Study of War said the Wagner Group's rebellion had not substantially impacted Russia's ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine, with fighting along the entire frontline continuing as usual.

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