The Black Sea Grain Deal might be Russia's Trojan horse for Ukraine and its allies. The deal is due to expire on May 18th, and Russia appears keen to milk every concession possible before discussing a renewal. Russia has offered short-term extensions of the deal - a mere 60 days - to keep everyone busy, incentivised and away from looking for alternative routes. If Ukraine is threatened with import tariffs or Turkey weakened by internal woes, Russia is ratcheting up the pressure on Europe and Ukraine's allies to give into its demands. Cutting the dependency on a Russian-sponsored trade deal is the only way out.

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