Craig Moffett, the founder of Moffett Nathanson, states in a note on Monday that this year’s iPhone promotions are the most lucrative to date. The three major Carriers are providing free iPhone 15 Pro devices or up to $1,000 off, although the specific discounts offered vary depending on the provider and whether the customer is new or on a premium rate plan.
Moffett believes that while the promotions from the leading Wireless carriers are notably aggressive, they are not significantly different from last year’s offerings.
Moffett Nathanson currently rates the three major wireless carriers, but it’s important to note that their outlook focuses solely on market performance rather than individual consumer preferences. Their price targets for each carrier are as follows: AT&T (T) with a target of $17, Verizon (VZ) with a target of $40, and T-Mobile (TMUS) with a target of $172. On Monday, AT&T’s stock dropped by 1% to $15.08, Verizon’s stock fell by 0.8% to $33.53, and T-Mobile’s stock decreased by 0.8% to $140.81.
By utilizing data from Navi, a mobile phone price data firm, Moffett highlights that the average promotional values remain consistent with last year’s figures. However, one noteworthy difference is that AT&T is currently offering higher overall promotional values for both new customers and existing customers upgrading their devices compared to last year. On the other hand, Verizon has increased promotional values for customers switching over to their service but has decreased them for upgraders.
The Wireless Industry’s Promotion Wars
By Connor Smith
The wireless industry’s promotional tactics have long been a cause for concern, with critics arguing that excessive promotion highlights a slowing growth rate within the industry. However, some recent developments offer a glimmer of hope.
T-Mobile, for instance, is currently offering promotional values for switchers and upgraders that are 9% lower than last year. This is noteworthy because it indicates the company’s confidence and momentum in attracting new customers without resorting to excessive giveaways. In contrast, AT&T seems to be going in the opposite direction by offering an 8% higher level of promotionality.
Cable companies with wireless business ventures, such as Charter (CHTR) and Comcast’s (CMCSA) Xfinity Mobile, are also joining in on the promotional frenzy. However, their deals are not as competitive as those offered by the big three carriers. MoffettNathanson rates Charter at Outperform with a $665 price target and Comcast at Outperform with a $47 price target.
Despite the cable companies’ attempts to lure customers away from Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, Moffett argues that their promotional discounts still pale in comparison. Nevertheless, the cable companies are expected to capture some market share, which could reduce the number of new customers available for the big three carriers.
In the midst of all this, Apple remains relatively unfazed. Citi Research analyst Michael Rollins believes that the ongoing promotions will not disrupt the traditional iPhone launch season or significantly impact the market. As a result, Apple’s stock saw a 1.7% increase, reaching $177.97 on Monday.
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