TikTok is in a form of limbo. 

The Biden administration has threatened to ban the favored video app in the USA due to safety issues with its Chinese language homeowners. However there’s no deadline for the White House to decide, and Congress may need to have a say within the matter. 

The uncertainty has left the app’s tens of millions of customers and its critics with an open query: What’s going to occur to TikTok? 

There are a handful of prospects, and whereas the timeline is unclear, right here’s a information to 6 believable paths ahead. 

State of affairs 1: Congress dooms TikTok 

Then-President Donald Trump tried to ban TikTok in 2020 and failed largely as a result of courts dominated he didn’t have the authorized authority. Now, Congress is pondering of giving that energy to President Joe Biden. 

A bipartisan group of senators launched a invoice final month that might give the U.S. commerce secretary broad energy to control or ban expertise from six international locations together with China. They’re calling it the Limiting the Emergence of Safety Threats That Threat Data and Communications Expertise Act, or RESTRICT Act. 

There are many questions on how a TikTok ban may work, however the RESTRICT Act is sweeping in its language, saying the commerce secretary “shall take motion” to mitigate sure dangers. The invoice additionally doesn’t go away a lot wiggle room for deliberation, saying the secretary shouldn’t take greater than 180 days to find out if one thing is an “unacceptable threat.” 

In defending this path ahead, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., one of many sponsors, mentioned comparable legal guidelines are proliferating globally. 

“Nations throughout the globe have made steps to mitigate international tech. The U.S. isn’t the one nation performing on this,” he tweeted Thursday. 

The invoice is a good distance from changing into regulation, nevertheless it already has the backing of 1 / 4 of the Senate. On this state of affairs, if the Home and Senate cross it, a ban might turn into a actuality lower than a 12 months after Congress acts. 

State of affairs 2: Congress doesn’t act, however Biden bans it anyway

Not each senator is dashing to endorse a TikTok ban. Final month, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., blocked an try and fast-track the RESTRICT Act, citing free expression. 

“Have religion that our want for freedom is robust sufficient to outlive a couple of dance movies,” Paul mentioned. 

If Congress doesn’t cross the invoice, the Biden administration might nonetheless attempt to limit or ban TikTok utilizing its present authorized authority. A federal authorities board generally known as the Committee on Overseas Funding in the USA has already privately demanded that TikTok’s Chinese language homeowners promote their stakes within the app, The Wall Street Journal has reported, citing nameless sources whom it described as individuals acquainted with the matter. NBC Information has not confirmed that reporting.

The subsequent step, on this state of affairs, may be an government order from Biden echoing what Trump issued in 2020. State governors have already been taking place that path. 

However this path entails plenty of authorized and political threat for the White House. It could doubtless must defend the ban in court docket — one thing Trump tried and didn’t do in 2020 — and it wouldn’t have the political cowl of performing in live performance with Congress. 

State of affairs 3: Biden does one thing small, or nothing in any respect

The concept of a TikTok ban has been floating round since earlier than Biden took workplace greater than two years in the past, and he hasn’t accomplished it. So, one state of affairs is that he by no means does. 

The administration and TikTok have been locked in negotiations for years over a possible written settlement that might lay out sure steps for TikTok to observe to assist safe the information of People and forestall the movement of Chinese language propaganda. It may very well be that these talks lead to one thing that satisfies Biden. 

Or it may very well be that different components of the U.S.-China relationship — the way forward for Taiwan or the competitors for synthetic intelligence — take priority, and the specter of TikTok fades. 

TikTok has been bolstering its defenses in hopes of reaching a deal. TikTok creators have visited Washington, D.C.; TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew has testified earlier than Congress; and TikTok has pushed an endeavor that it calls Challenge Texas — working with Austin-based Oracle to retailer People’ knowledge on U.S. soil. 

State of affairs 4: Judges shield TikTok 

The courts got here to TikTok’s rescue in 2020 when the Trump administration tried to limit the app, as two federal judges in separate lawsuits mentioned the administration had doubtless overstepped its authorized authority and blocked the restrictions. 

Decide Wendy Beetlestone, an Obama appointee in Philadelphia, sided with TikTok users who had been involved about free expression, whereas Decide Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee in Washington, D.C., based his ruling on federal regulatory regulation in a swimsuit that TikTok itself filed. 

Related issues would doubtless be at challenge once more if TikTok or its customers had been to sue, both after a White House transfer or forward of time as a way to pre-empt it. 

“Banning TikTok would violate the First Modification,” Jenna Leventoff, senior coverage counsel on the American Civil Liberties Union, mentioned in an announcement final month. “The federal government can’t impose any such complete ban except it’s vital to forestall extraordinarily severe, speedy hurt to nationwide safety.” 

TikTok’s success in court docket isn’t assured, but when it might at the least delay any restrictions, that might be some form of win.

And if TikTok or its customers needed to take that path once more, they’ll have much more authorized muscle the second time round: TikTok has been on a hiring spree for legal professionals prior to now three years and has plans to rent many extra legal professionals, Bloomberg Law reported final month, citing eight current hires and extra open positions listed on a TikTok jobs board. 

State of affairs 5: ByteDance sells it 

A by-product of TikTok’s U.S. enterprise from its Chinese language mum or dad firm, ByteDance, would in some methods be the simplest path to take. It could keep away from the messy political and authorized fights over a ban, and customers won’t discover a distinction. 

And ByteDance is already owned largely by outsiders. Greater than 60% of shares are within the fingers of “Western funding corporations” akin to Sequoia Capital, Constancy and BlackRock, in line with congressional testimony final 12 months from Vanessa Pappas, TikTok’s chief working officer. Founders and workers personal “a lot of the relaxation,” she mentioned. G42, an funding agency from the United Arab Emirates, purchased shares last month, Bloomberg Information reported, citing individuals with data of the deal. 

China hopes to dam this path. Beijing has mentioned it might “resolutely oppose” a sale, arguing it might harm buyers and damage confidence for others investing in the USA. China additionally imposed export restrictions in 2020 that might complicate the switch of TikTok’s algorithms, though how the foundations may apply isn’t clear, in line with CNBC. 

TikTok’s management considers a sale a final resort, Bloomberg News reported last month, citing individuals acquainted with the matter. Its U.S. enterprise might pursue both an preliminary public providing as a standalone firm or a sale to a big tech agency akin to Microsoft at a valuation of maybe $40 billion to $50 billion, the information service mentioned. 

State of affairs 6: Congress passes a privateness regulation for all apps

As privateness advocates are all the time fast to notice, the U.S. doesn’t have a nationwide regulation for privateness on the web as some other countries do. One state of affairs is that Congress passes one within the close to future, presumably taking a few of the warmth off TikTok. 

It’s not solely far-fetched. Negotiators within the Senate have bargained for years on a potential bipartisan knowledge privateness regulation, and so they appeared to get close to a breakthrough final summer season earlier than splintering over how such a regulation could be enforced. 

India McKinney, director of federal affairs on the Digital Frontier Basis, a privateness advocacy group primarily based in San Francisco, mentioned a privateness regulation wouldn’t have the constitutional points {that a} ban may. 

“If the federal government is definitely involved with the quantity of knowledge that international firms like TikTok are accumulating on People after which utilizing it for no matter, then what they really actually need to do is have a complete knowledge privateness rule as a result of that’s what will stop the gathering of the knowledge within the first place,” McKinney mentioned in an interview. 

It’s not clear whether or not such a regulation would fulfill safety issues about TikTok, and it doesn’t preclude simultaneous actions like a TikTok ban, however supporters of the concept say it might put TikTok on comparable footing to rivals akin to Instagram, YouTube and Snapchat.