Nikola Jokic, the anti-hero sports superstar who opened the past two seasons as reigning MVP, will begin the 2023-24 season as an NBA champion and reigning Finals MVP. So, where does he sit in the futures market in terms of awards and statistical over/unders? Today, we will analyze the Joker’s MVP odds as well as his SuperDraft season-long player props.

The whole world knows what hoops heads have known for many years: Nikola Jokic is a dominant NBA force with as much across-the-board talent as the game of basketball has ever seen. No 7-footer has ever scored, rebounded, and assisted in droves as effortlessly and efficiently as the Joker. He’s a cheat code. 

He’s also a hell of a lot of fun to bet on, as the world also learned last season. “Nikola Jokic triple-double” became a massively popular playoff prop, almost as popular as Christian McCaffrey ‘anytime touchdown’ props have become in the NFL. We also advised bettors to back Jokic to win Finals MVP, which actually yielded more value and a higher payout than the Nuggets’ odds to win it all. That worked well for us, and we’re confident our MVP bets and Jokic season-long prop wagers will work well for us, too. 

So, jump into the futures market with us and let’s ride! Below, we will take a look at Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds, as well as his three top SuperDraft player props — average points, rebounds, and assists per game — and explain which way we’re leaning on each bet.

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Nikola Jokic NBA MVP odds 2023-24

Odds from BetMGM

We don’t love Jokic as the odds-on favorite to win MVP, simply because voters proved last season that they were fatigued with the thought of him winning the award a third time. He came a mere 0.2 assists per game from averaging a triple-double as a 7-foot center while maintaining shooting splits of 63/38/82. That’s historically dominant, and yet he lost MVP to Joel Embiid because JoJo’s a better defender and won the scoring title. 

Joker doesn’t care about MVP — he basically said it straight up last season. He barely seemed interested in the Nuggets’ team celebrations after winning the championship! On top of that, so much has to go right for him to take down a third MVP and enter a very rarefied air in NBA history. With so many superstars and so much parity in the Association today, we simply can’t advise betting on the favorite with odds shorter than +500. We love Joker — we just don’t love the odds ahead of an 82-game season. 

Best Nikola Jokic prop bets 2023-24

Props available on SuperDraft

UNDER 25.6 average points per game

This seems like a pretty accurate projection on SuperDraft’s part, but we’re still going UNDER. Jokic just finished the 2022-23 season averaging 24.5 points — 1.1 points per game under this total — and the Nuggets won the whole damn thing. Now that Jamal Murray has taken a massive step up and has as much confidence as ever, do we expect his usage to go down? Do we expect Michael Porter Jr. to suddenly take fewer shots, or either of Aaron Gordon/Christian Braun to step back into the bushes like the Homer Simpson meme? 

No — these guys will all be expected to hold their own and contribute offensively, especially now that Mike Malone’s squad has found a recipe for success. Why overwork the Joker and rely heavily upon his scoring 30-40 points per night like the 76ers do with Joel Embiid? That formula doesn’t work. Squads need balanced scoring attacks and strong team basketball on both ends of the floor to win in the Association. 

In case nobody noticed, Jokic doesn’t give a damn about the MVP trophy. He has two already, and he would probably trade both for a second championship. Denver has maximized success using Joker as a scorer when needed and a playmaker and facilitator when defenses blitz him. He will have to attract more defensive attention than ever this season, with the whole league trying to stop him and beat the champs. To us, that translates to fewer points per game. To the UNDER we go!

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UNDER 11.9 average rebounds per game

This one serves as the hardest of Jokic’s three props to predict, as he just finished the 2022-23 campaign with 11.8 rebounds per game. He averaged a whopping 13.8 boards per game in the latter of his back-to-back MVP campaigns, but he finished with 10.8 RPG or fewer in each of his first six seasons in the NBA.

This number might have been lower if not for his insane Finals run, when he mounted respective series per-game rebounding averages of 12.4, 13.2, 14.5, and 14.0. Who can blame SuperDraft for setting the bar up to 12 boards per game after that run of gargantuan glasswork? Still, betting on a player with as much offensive responsibility as Jokic to average 12 rebounds across an entire season seems like a fool’s errand.

Domantas Sabonis led the entire league with 12.3 rebounds per game last season, but he didn’t even finish with 20 points per game. Plus, the four core rotation members around him are poor rebounders. Jokic has strong boardsmen in Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., and we don’t expect Joker to need to average a dozen a game. Bet the UNDER or fade this one entirely.

OVER 9.2 average assists per game

Here’s where we do like the OVER. Jokic has blossomed into one of the best passers in the game over the past couple of years, and the offensive players around him have also emerged into confident scorers. This all bodes well for the two-time MVP, as he seems to prefer playmaking to shotmaking. Like we’ve seen with LeBron James in his late 30s, dishing out 10-15 dimes is a lot easier on the body than scoring 30-40 points. 

We’re projected Jamal Murray to earn his first All-Star nod this season, and we also like Michael Porter Jr. to take a step forward offensively. With Murray, MPJ, and even Christian Braun all very capable secondary and tertiary scorers, Gordon a high-percentage threat near the basket, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the recently-signed Justin Holiday strong floor-spacers, the Nuggets have set Jokic up well for another successful season on the assists front.