We’re still about two months away from the World Series, but the betting futures market never sleeps and here in late August, it starts to get especially fun to start day dreaming about potential Fall Classic matchups. With this in mind, I’ve been wondering about some possible “dark horse” World Series contenders. 

That is: Which teams as of right now would be a surprise entrant in the postseason while still having a chance to go all the way? 

We’ve seen several in recent years. The Phillies won the NL pennant last season and absolutely would be considered a surprise pennant winner, though here today I’m only looking at teams that could win the World Series. The Braves won the World Series in 2021 despite having the worst record among the entire Playoff field. The Nationals in 2019 were definitely a dark horse. 

What about this time around? First, we’ll eliminate the elite teams, so I can’t name the Braves, Dodgers or Orioles, even though there’s a way to paint Baltimore as a surprise team in the big picture. The Astros as defending champs don’t count. As of Friday, the Rangers had similar odds to the Orioles and Astros, so they’re out. 

The Mariners and Rays are both sitting at +1400 and that seems like it isn’t far enough away to be part of this exercise. That means here are the remaining options from this list: 

• Blue Jays, +2000
• Phillies, +2200
• Twins, +3000
• Brewers, +3000
• Giants, +4000
• Cubs, +4000
• Diamondbacks, +7000
• Reds, +7000
• Marlins, +7500
• Padres, +8000
• Red Sox, +10000
• Guardians, +30000

The odds for the Angels, Yankees, Mets, Tigers and Nationals are much longer, but I don’t think any have a chance to make the playoffs. 

Here are the most intriguing options from the above list. 

Blue Jays, +2000

They are outside the playoff picture right now and have looked rather uninspiring for a while. In fact, they are only two games over .500 (52-50) since April 29! 

But. 

Let’s say the Blue Jays run out a playoff rotation of Kevin Gausman, Hyun Jin Ryu and two of Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi and all are throwing at their absolute best. Let’s say the offense, behind major talents in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and veterans with big upside like George Springer and Matt Chapman, sees everyone hitting the way they are capable. The bullpen is full of live arms, too. 

The Blue Jays have a very talented team that is absolutely capable of winning the World Series. They’ll need to find a way to play better baseball in order to make the playoffs, but if things click, they could win.

Verdict: I wouldn’t hate the decision to back the Blue Jays to win it all here. I’m not throwing money on it, but it’s a defensible play.

Phillies, +2200

I’ve mentioned it in power rankings before, but the Phillies are much better set up to be a playoff team than a regular-season team. They are top heavy, similar to the 2019 Nationals and, obviously, last year’s Phillies. 

They’ll need the best versions of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Then for the rotation they can pick two from Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez (assuming he’s back from his hamstring injury) and Michael Lorenzen. That leaves one from that group to join the bullpen — Suárez and Lorenzen have both been effective weapons in relief before — along with Christopher Sánchez. The bullpen was already deeper this time around, too, with Craig Kimbrel and Jeff Hoffman joining Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado. 

Offensively, add Trea Turner and a much better Nick Castellanos to last year’s group, and subtract Rhys Hoskins, to see what kind of upside there is. There have been underperforming players this season, but there’s immense power potential with this group. 

If they are firing on all cylinders at the right time again, they’ll be a ridiculously tough out. 

Verdict: I know it just almost happened last year, but here’s my play. I’ll take the Phillies. 

Twins, +3000

Let’s just get this out of the way. Yes, the Twins have lost 18 consecutive playoff games as a franchise. In terms of the impact on the field in 2023, considering they haven’t made a playoff game since 2020, it is absolutely zero. The 1984 Cubs had NOTHING to do with the 2016 Cubs, just as the 2010 Twins have nothing to do with the 2023 Twins. Put this losing streak nonsense out of your mind when handicapping games. 

Now, the Twins are likely to be either the worst playoff teams or one of the two worst along with the third NL wild-card winner. 

However, you can squint your way to a deep run here much like the Phillies made last year when they toppled the mighty Braves and someone else took care of the mighty Dodgers. With Sonny Gray, Pablo López and then two of Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda, the Twins will have a formidable playoff rotation. There are lockdown arms at the back of the bullpen. The offense hasn’t lived up to it at all this season, but there is a lot of talent in there. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton in particular could catch fire for a month. We’ve seen better from several others who shouldn’t be past their primes, too. 

Verdict: I’m not taking them, but this is another defensible play. I used the word “intriguing” above and they are definitely intriguing if we’re just talking about who could make a shocking run.

Brewers, +3000

Ride those arms. Brandon Woodruff has looked great since he’s been back. Can’t you just envision Corbin Burnes tearing through October with a historic playoff month? Freddy Peralta is inconsistent, but also incredibly talented. The Brewers could run through the month with a rotation that is fronted with three ace-caliber pitchers. Wade Miley is no slouch. The bullpen is stacked and Craig Counsell is a maestro at dealing with it. 

The offense is not very good, but they have some capable power hitters and Christian Yelich is having a bounce-back year. He’s capable of being one of those guys for a month where we’d talk about him “carrying” the offense. 

Verdict: Again, I’m not taking them but it’s a quality play if you believe. 

Padres, +8000

Actually, the Padres aren’t intriguing. I’m listing them here so I can discuss them from a betting perspective. There’s still enough talent here that if they somehow made the playoffs, they absolutely can win the World Series. In fact, if they make the playoffs, that’ll mean they put together an incredible hot streak down the stretch and then they’d be a major threat to win it all. Of course, anyone paying attention to this group all season should have the belief that there’s no chance of this happening. If you do still believe in this team and like to wager on futures, you likely already have a ticket or more on the Padres. There’s no reason to put more money on them now. 

Verdict: I do not endorse wagering on the Padres at this time. Not at all. 

Red Sox, +10000

It’s a tall order and that’s why the odds are long, but the Red Sox have put together a few stretches this season to make me feel like it isn’t out of the question. How about when they swept the Blue Jays in Toronto and then took two of three from the Rangers in Texas? They are 3-1 against the Braves and 7-3 against the Blue Jays.

The Red Sox have a high-powered offense and a bullpen capable of throwing well for a month. If they can get good versions of Brayan Bello, James Paxton and Chris Sale in the rotation come October, there could be a deep run. 

Verdict: I could see it. Worth a sprinkle if you agree.