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An Analysis of Paolo Banchero Through His First NBA Regular Season Week

ORLANDO – Just three games in and already Paolo Banchero, the NBA’s No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, has made national headlines. 

In the Orlando Magic’s opener at Detroit, the 6-foot-10, 255-pounder out of Duke became just the 10th player in NBA history to record at least 25 points, five rebounds and five assists in their professional debut. Danny Finn, Frank Selvy, Maurice Stokes, Elgin Baylor, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ron Anderson, Willie Anderson, Grant Hill, and LeBron James were the others to accomplish this.

By scoring 23 points on Saturday in the Magic’s home opener against the Celtics, he joined Elvin Hayes, Oscar Robertson, and Walt Bellamy as the only players in league history to score 20-plus in their first three NBA games. Banchero is the first teenager to do it.

So, what’s working for the 19-year-old; what needs work; and what’s still unknown? 

The main reason Banchero has been able to hit or eclipse the 20-point mark each game he has played so far is because he’s getting to the free throw line, which we expected he’d do at a high rate. He’s already taken 26 foul shots, currently fifth-most in the league behind Ja Morant’s 32, DeMar DeRozan’s 29, and 27 by both Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid. Banchero has made 21 of his 26 tries from the stripe.

What he hasn’t done much of yet, however, is finish through contact. He’s converted just twice so far when fouled in the act of shooting. One of those instances was when he put Cory Joseph on a poster. 

Passive he is not. Banchero has already attempted 55 floor shots, eighth-most in the league. He’s quite creative, too. The mix of power and finesse in his offensive package is unique for someone his size. 

The Average Shot Distance through three games for him, per Second Spectrum tracking data, is 11.9 feet. Among players who have attempted at least 40 shots, that’s the fifth closest to the basket. Fellow rookie Jaden Ivey ranks No. 1 in this category among qualified players with an average shot distance of 10.3 feet; Embiid, Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the only others ahead of the Magic forward. 

Emphasized quite a bit in summer league, and then again during the preseason, passing is one of Banchero’s main strengths. So far, his teammates have made 53 percent of the shots they’ve taken when the pass was delivered to them by Banchero. 

Some listed defense as a weakness of his while in college. While there’s plenty for him to get better at on the defensive end, Banchero, without question, is not a defensive liability, as some thought he might be at this level.

Opponents are shooting 41 percent from the field when he’s been the closest defender, per Second Spectrum. In the game in Atlanta, Trae Young missed all three of his shots when Banchero was the contester. He took a charge on Jayson Tatum in the game against Boston. 

While his final box score stats have been impressive, Banchero’s shooting percentages are quite low. He’s shooting 41.8 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range (3-of-13). He’s made just one of his 10 pullup jumpers, and he’s knocked down just four of the 12 shots he’s taken in isolation situations. 

As is the case with anyone with high offensive upside, Banchero’s grand success hinges on his shooting percentages. If he’s at least semi efficient outside the paint, there’s no doubt that he’s going to ultimately be one of the league’s premier scorers. For now, opponents are going to sag off him and dare him to shoot from deeper ranges – which is exactly what the Celtics did on Saturday. 

If he does indeed become a more dependable perimeter jump shooter, Banchero will be a nightmare for opponents to deal with for a long, long time. 

Throughout the summer, training camp, the preseason, and now in the early portion of the regular season, Magic coaches and teammates have marveled at Banchero’s maturity, poise, aggressiveness, and confidence. Not only is he super talented, but he also works extremely hard, is unselfish, and has a winning mindset.

“The thing about Paolo is that he’s just going to play the right way,” Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley said. “I don’t know that you put an expectation on him for whatever he’s going to be. Obviously, there’s going to be that (publicity and exposure) for the number one pick. But the way in which he plays just speaks for itself.  He’s going to always try do the right thing. Whatever happens within the game, it’s just him trying to do the right thing. That’s just his talent level kind of just takes it there.”

It hasn’t taken long for Banchero to learn that it’s the little things in close games that often decide the outcome. Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner repeatedly talked about that during their rookie campaigns last season, and now Banchero is recognizing that as well.

“Free throws, turnovers, fouls – all those things,” he said. “You can play your heart out for three games, but if you don’t do the little things, you’re not going to come out with a win.”

The post An Analysis of Paolo Banchero Through His First NBA Regular Season Week appeared first on NY Times News Today.



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