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3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 10/24/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire’s daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Kevon Looney Over 17.5 Pts + Reb (+102)

Draymond Green won’t play in the Golden State Warriors season opener after being ruled out due to an ankle sprain, meaning Kevon Looney should get the nod to start tonight.

Looney had decent enough numbers last year to make me interested in this prop, ending the season averaging 7.0 points and 9.3 Rebounds per game.

But in games without Green last season, Looney’s numbers increased to 7.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.

One of these games serves as an outlier, given that Looney only played five minutes (numberFire projects him to play 27.59 minutes tonight). If we take out this game, we can see that Looney averaged 8.1 points and 11.8 rebounds per game without Green on the court last season.

The fact that he’s going for 19.9 Pts + Reb without Green puts this prop in a great spot, but Looney’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns is also pretty intriguing.

Last season, the Suns gave up the 10th-most offensive rebounds to opponents.

Looney, meanwhile, averaged the sixth-most offensive rebounds, plus he scored 80.3% of his points in the paint. This leaves ample territory for Looney to grab some rebounds on offense and turn them into putbacks on the glass.

It’s no secret that Looney can be a monster on the boards. He was the only player to rank in the top-30 of rebounds per game last season while also averaging less than 24 minutes per game.

With Chris Paul added to the Warriors’ frontcourt, Looney could get more looks to score in the post. The Suns were a super foul-heavy team last season, ranking 5th-most in this regard, so Looney could get to the free-throw line a decent amount to help rack up some points. Either way, Looney’s rebounds should do most of the heavy-lifting for this prop, which I think is one of the better-valued plays on the board for tonight’s NBA slate.

LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)

LeBron James always seems to come out hot in his first game of the season — at least as the stat sheet is concerned.

He’s recorded a double-double in seven of his last eight season openers, averaging 25.5 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game in this span.

Though I believe James has mastered the art of stat-padding in big games, such as tonight’s Los Angeles Lakers matchup against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, I’m avoiding his +140 odds to record a double-double simply because of the lack of value.

Historically, both in season openers and across his career, if LeBron records a double-double, it will typically come at the hands of a points and rebounds combination. His odds to record 10 or more rebounds stand at +200, and his odds to record eight or more assists is at +185 — so the value lies in these props.

However, given that the Nuggets gave up the fewest rebounds last season, and Anthony Davis is still a living and breathing Laker, I’m a bit more hesitant that LeBron will secure ten boards — but I do think his chances to grab eight or more are solid.

Last season, LeBron averaged 8.3 RPG. This average fell to 7.3 RPG in three regular season games against the Nuggets, but he managed to average 9.5 RPG in last season’s playoff series against Denver.

This leaves LeBron with an average of 8.6 rebounds against this Nuggets team, and when paired with last season’s rebounds average and his propensity to show up big on the stat sheet in season openers, I’m siding with the over on this prop.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 10.5 Points (+104)

For a team that is led by Nikola Jokic and has the supporting lift of Jamal Murray, it may seem like an afterthought to side with an alternative Denver Nugget, but I like the value on the point total for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

He averaged 10.8 points for Denver last season, so the listed point total for this prop makes sense.

However, he averaged 11.8 points in four regular season games against the Lakers, and did particularly well in the Western Conference Finals against Los Angeles, putting up 14.8 points per game in this series.

Statistical evidence gives us a closer look at why KCP was successful in scoring against this team last season, and given that both teams remained fairly stagnant in the offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised if the following numbers held up this year.

The Lakers let up the most amount of field-goal attempts last season (more than ten additional FGA per game than the team ranked first in this category). More shot attempts means more point opportunities for all, including KCP.

Los Angeles also gave up 15.4 fast break points each game (27th in NBA), something that KCP is fairly good at capitalizing on — 21.4% of his points last season were scored on a fast break (15th).

It’s also nice knowing that KCP maintained a 42.3 3P% last season, which was the seventh-best in the league — 11 points is a fairly low bar to clear for someone who shoots that well beyond the arc, even if he is a bit of an afterthought on this Denver team.

If interested in any of these picks, or you have some favorite props of your own that you want to give a nod, I’d consider pairing the best of the bunch to use on FanDuel’s No Sweat Same Game Parlay that they are offering for tonight’s NBA season opener.


Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

The post 3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 10/24/23 appeared first on RT News Today.



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3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 10/24/23

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