College football expert betting picks for Week 8

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

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(odds as of October 20, 10:35 a.m. PT)

Rutgers trailed 24-6 at home last weekend vs. Michigan State heading into the fourth quarter. Then, the Sparty special teams let them right back in the game. First, there was an illegal formation by the Michigan State punt team followed by a fumbled snap by the punter for a Rutgers touchdown. After Rutgers had cut the deficit to 24-21, Michigan State failed to field the ensuing kickoff leading to the winning score for the Scarlet Knights.

Now Rutgers, at 5-2 and one victory away from bowl eligibility, goes on the road to face Indiana, who has lost its last two games by a combined 72 points.

Rutgers played a fairly easy schedule to get to 5-2. The record of its combined opponents is 22-22. Indiana’s schedule has been tougher having to play Ohio State, Louisville, Michigan, and an overall slate of opponents with a record of 25-15 (which includes an 0-6 FCS Indiana State club).

Indiana had a bye week before last to make some changes offensively under new OC Rod Carey, who replaced the fired Walt Bell. It did not go well as they were pounded 52-7 at Michigan. At least this week, the Hoosiers have an opponent that is within their weight class.

The Hoosiers rank 118 in Total Offense, but Rutgers is not much better at 108.

This week is also Rutgers’ eighth consecutive game before its bye next week. The Scarlet Knights have all the pressure in this spot to wrap up bowl eligibility.

Bet: Indiana +6 (to +4)

Navy has lost three straight games in the series against Air Force but did cover as two-TD underdogs in a 13-10 defeat at Colorado Springs last year.

This game should be competitive, considering these teams run the same triple-option offense and are highly familiar with each other. Air Force is 6-0 while Navy is just 3-3, but the Falcons have faced one of the nation’s easiest schedules playing FCS Robert Morris, first-year FBS Sam Houston State, Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State, and Wyoming, its only opponent with a winning record.

Both clubs come into this game with issues at QB. For Air Force, Zach Larrier left last week’s 34-27 victory vs. Wyoming with a knee injury and is out indefinitely. Senior backup Jensen Jones was barely beaten out for the starting job in fall camp, but he also has one career passing attempt in a college game. Navy also has a QB quandary of its own with Blake Horvath out with a thumb injury and Tai Lavatai leaving last week’s game at Charlotte with a rib injury. Freshman Braxton Woodson did enough in relief to earn a 14-0 win for the Midshipmen, so it will either be him or former QB now RB Xavier Arline (who made four starts last season), or perhaps both.

With this game being played at a slower pace and a consistently running clock, it will be difficult for either team to pull too far ahead.

Bet: Navy +10.5 (to +10)

Michigan is 7-0 and has won its games by margins of 27, 28, 25, 24, 38, 42, and 45. Granted, the Wolverines have done so against one of the easiest schedules in all of FBS, but there is no doubt that Michigan is a legitimate top-end team.

Meanwhile, 2-4 Michigan State has already seen its head coach get fired and will likely not go bowling. Last week, post-bye week, Michigan State showed that they will not mail in the season. They should have won at Rutgers, but special teams mistakes in the fourth quarter cost them, just like the game at Iowa. This week’s game vs. “big brother” is essentially Michigan State’s bowl game.

The Spartans’ defense has played better and upgraded at QB, with redshirt freshman Katin Houser starting over Noah Kim.

Michigan is playing its eighth consecutive game before its bye week, so it would not be a shock to see a lower energy level early, which allows Michigan State to get off to a good start that keeps them within the number.

Bet: Michigan State +24

USC’s dream of an undefeated season disappeared last weekend in a hurry as reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams threw three interceptions in the first half, and the Trojans, despite outgaining Notre Dame by over 50 yards, were thumped 48-20 courtesy of five turnovers and allowing six sacks.

Sometimes, teams can lose their following game on the very night they lose their first, but USC should not be in that spot here, considering they draw Utah this week. The Trojans were swept by the Utes last year, including in the Pac-12 Championship Game, where Kyle Whittingham’s bunch basically out-toughed Lincoln Riley’s club. USC was also out-toughed last week in South Bend. The Trojans have a reputation as a finesse team, not a team that cannot win a physical battle. Well, what better spot to disprove that observation than here against Utah?

Utah is 5-1 doing what Utah does, which is to play good, tough defense (No. 9 nationally in Total Defense) and to run the ball. They have had to do that more so here in 2023, as the Utes rank 122 out of 130 FBS teams in Passing Offense. Utah’s All-Pac 12 QB Cameron Rising has yet to play in 2023, still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in last year’s Rose Bowl. It has been a week-to-week question of when he will return. Even if he returns this week, Rising will be very rusty even against a much-maligned USC defense that held Notre Dame to just 251 yards last week, including 126 yards from QB Sam Hartman.

The question remains of how long Utah’s fierce defense can hold up against one of the best offenses in the nation. The Utes will not be able to trade score for score with USC. The Trojans should bounce back in a big way here.

Bet: USC -7