One of the big talking points of the NBA offseason is projecting which players are poised for exceptional or disappointing seasons. Who could break out with career-best seasons? Which players are past their prime and could be on the decline?

With the NBA regular season tipping off on October 24, it’s time to call our shots.

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering various NBA player stats odds for the 2023-24 season. This includes anything from the points-per-game leader for the 2023-24 season to player-specific props — such as if a player will Average 24.0 points per game (PPG) or 8.0 assists per game (APG).

Let’s dig into the lines for player stats for the 2023-24 campaign, focusing today on five point total bets.

Tyler Herro to Average 20+ Points Per Game (-105)

Tyler Herro has averaged more than 20.0 points per game (PPG) in two consecutive seasons. After Herro suffered a hand fracture during the 2023 playoffs, there could be some concern about his role on the Miami Heat. They managed to make the NBA Finals without Herro, and he appeared in various trade rumors in the offseason yet again.

However, Herro’s role has steadily increased throughout his career in South Beach. After serving in a reserve role for three consecutive seasons, the former Kentucky guard was elevated to a starting role last year. Herro started in every appearance in the 2022-23 season, which was 67 regular-season games. Plus, he started in his sole playoff game before sustaining his hand injury.

Miami has steadily increased Herro’s minutes per game. Of course, it rose once again after earning a starting spot. Herro averaged 34.9 minutes per game, which was the highest mark on the team, compared to his 32.6 minutes per game in the 2021-22 season. He has also led the team in Usage Rate in back-to-back seasons; his latest mark was 26.3%.

There’s little reason to believe his role will decrease this year. Plus, the Heat lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in free agency, providing a need for more backcourt scoring. Herro could help replace Strus and Vincent with even more production.

Herro still holds a prominent role in Miami. I like the fifth-year guard to reach the 20.0-point mark for the third consecutive season.

Darius Garland to Average 22+ Points Per Game (+115)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the NBA’s feel-good stories over the previous two seasons. After finishing 22-50 in the 2020-21 season, the Cavs jumped to 44-38 in 2021-22. Cleveland enjoyed another leap after landing Donovan Mitchell via trade, finishing with a 51-31 record while earning the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The 2022-23 season ended in disappointment as the Cavaliers fell in five games against the New York Knicks in the first round of the postseason. Mitchell turned in a disappointing performance, but Darius Garland was one of the few bright spots of the series.

Game 3 was a nightmare for Garland, as he shot 4 of 21 (19.0%) from the field while totaling only 10 points. However, he had solid numbers with good efficiency in the other four contests. In fact, Garland averaged 23.3 PPG with a 52.5 field goal percentage (FG%) while shooting a lethal 45.8% on three-pointers over the other four contests.

So how does Garland’s playoff performance pertain to his 2023-24 stat totals? It further proves Garland could be ready for an increased role, meaning another leap could be imminent. He has averaged 21.7 PPG and 21.6 PPG in his previous two seasons. Reaching 22.0 PPG is not an unreasonable goal. If anything, it could be expected.

Garland shot a career-best 41.0% from beyond the arc last season — the first time he reached 40.0% on three-pointers. His usage rate fell from 27.9% to 26.8% due to the addition of Mitchell. The Cavs could look to increase Garland’s usage rate, especially after he posted career-best shooting splits.

I’m also stuck on Garland finishing eighth in FiveThirtyEight’s offensive RAPTOR in the 2021-22 season. Cleveland should look to use the one-time All-Star as much as possible.

Karl-Anthony Towns to Average 22+ Points Per Game (-110)

Let’s address the curious case of Karl-Anthony Towns. The Minnesota Timberwolves‘ star center played a career-low 29 games last season due a calf injury.

Towns never quite got back to his usual self, as he averaged 20.8 PPG and 8.1 rebounds per game (RPG). This was the lowest rebound average of his career, and 20.8 PPG was the second-lowest scoring mark of Towns’ career.

Will he bounce back in the upcoming season?

I still believe in Towns. Before the 2022-23 season, he averaged at least 24.4 PPG for four consecutive seasons. Despite the injury last year, the 6-foot-11 forward still had the second-highest usage rate on the team at 25.5% — behind Anthony Edwards (30.1%).

Of course, Edwards is the biggest threat to Towns’ production. The 22-year-old guard earned his first All-Star appearance last season while averaging a career-high 24.6 PPG. Edwards could certainly be the focal point of the franchise going forward.

However, the Timberwolves clearly have the need for another high-volume scorer. Mike Conley has averaged fewer than 15.0 PPG in back-to-back seasons, Jaden McDaniels has yet to average at least 10 shot attempts per game, and Rudy Gobert has a career-high scoring average of 15.9 PPG.

Towns will likely have a prominent role, and I like his chances of reaching at least 22.0 PPG.

Jordan Poole to Average 24+ Points Per Game (-145)

Jordan Poole was shipped to the Washington Wizards as the Golden State Warriors landed Chris Paul via trade. Poole has steadily increased his scoring average since his rookie season in 2019-20. After serving in a reserve role for one of the Association’s best teams, Poole could be a part of the NBA’s worst team in the 2023-24 season. According to FanDuel’s NBA win total odds, Washington had a projected win total of only 23.5.

The Wizards also traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason. Beal led Washington with a 30.0% usage rate last season while Porzingis was third at 28.0%. The Wiz are looking to replace two high-volume scorers. Poole looks to be the answer.

He was second on the Warriors with a 29.5% usage rate. Poole also averaged 30.0 minutes per game, which should increase with a starting role in Washington. The 24-year-old guard’s game continues to develop, and now he’s with a team with plenty of scoring opportunities.

After averaging a career-high 20.4 PPG last season, Poole can increase his point total once again, and it could be a big jump.

Paolo Bancheo to Average 24+ Points Per Game (+185)

I saved the boldest pick for last.

Paolo Banchero shined in his first season of professional basketball, winning Rookie of the Year while averaging 20.0 PPG and 6.9 RPG. Banchero also had a 27.9% usage rate — the highest rate for a Rookie-of-the-Year winner since Luka Doncic in the 2018-19 season.

The Orlando Magic are finally headed in a promising direction with an emerging core, spearheaded by the reigning Rookie of the Year. I’m expecting another leap for Banchero. While the former Duke star shined as a rookie, there were still clear flaws in his game.

For example, Banchero lacked exceptional efficiency, shooting 42.7% from the field and 29.8% on 3-pointers. As a prospect, there were concerns surrounding the 6-foot-10 forward’s ability to consistently hit the three-ball. Banchero is likely capable of boosting his FG%, though, which should lead to an improvement in his scoring average.

Orlando could focus on providing Banchero with more ideal shot attempts. In his rookie season, he shot 35.1% on pull-up shots per game, compared to 48.4% on field goal attempts when he dribbled four to six times. Banchero is usually at his best when creating his own shot. The Magic could look to capitalize on this strength.

Ultimately, Banchero’s role should only increase after an impressive rookie season. Plus, Orlando’s new additions should not be a big threat to Banchero’s shot attempts. For example, Anthony Black‘s role will likely focus on being a playmaker and producing on the defensive end.

I like Banchero’s chances of reaching at least 24.0 PPG, and the +185 line only sweetens the deal.

Do you think you know which NBA players are poised for an impressive 2023-24 season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA player stats odds market to bet season-long player stats with America’s Number One Sportsbook. Be sure to check out other basketball betting options, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.