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Hambletonian fair odds: Most likely winners are not best bets

By my estimation, anyone who opens the Hambletonian program for Saturday at The Meadowlands and looks at only the first two horses stands a decent chance of being right. They can be right without knowing anything. It’s a magic game, this gambling game.

No. 1 Celebrity Bambino attempts to tie a knot on the drought for trainer Ron Burke and driver Yannick Gingras. Both Hall of Fame inductees have yet to win harness racing’s classic event.

Burke came close, as close as anyone can be to winning the race by winning in 2017. Well, until his pupil What The Hill became the only first-place finisher to get disqualified in the race’s history. That disqualification also yanked a Hambletonian victory from David Miller, another Hall of Famer who has yet to win this race. In yet another twist of fate, Miller acquired the drive on the other elimination winner, another Burke trainee in Point Of Perfect.

All that is to say if Burke trains the winner, the race will be a win not only for him but for the driver too.

Now that we’ve got that winding Cinderella’s tale out of the way, Celebrity Bambino certainly can be the reversal of fortune for Burke and Gingras. But honestly, they likely landed the worst post draw they could get by securing the elimination-winner’s insurance for posts 1 through 5.

He’s inside of stronger speed from his stablemate No. 5 Point Of Perfect, who has the perfect post to grab the point, as well as other possible speed in No. 7 Southwind Coors, No. 6 Up Your Deo and No. 8 French Wine.

This race could be over in the first turn. For a million dollars, I would be shocked if they aligned with Point Of Perfect on the lead and Celebrity Bambino in the pocket. Such an elementary breakdown of movement off the gate would transcend farce if that’s how this race structured to the first quarter.

At the same time, chaos around the first turn can seal Celebrity Bambino’s fate. Although he has the speed to try to protect position from the pylons, others trying their luck off the wings can put Celebrity Bambino into a spot where he’s third, fourth or fifth, guaranteeing him to have to come first over or even second over, where he’ll have to pray the strong closing kicks of his competitors don’t come into play on this day.

No. 2 Oh Well can show much more than he had in his elimination. Tim Tetrick nursed the Marcus Melander trainee off the pylons moving to three-quarters and only went to the crop when Oh Well got lazy straightening. His hanging tendency in the stretch is legitimately his biggest obstacle this season and could be the factor that determines his success Saturday.

Yet, with this post draw he stands the chance to try to work a trip following Celebrity Bambino, which can hurt Celebrity Bambino’s chances of winning while improving Oh Well’s since he’s shown himself to be strong off a helmet based on his 2-year-old campaign.

Everything else is chaos theory. If things do not come up Milhouse for Celebrity Bambino or Oh Well, anyone can win. Osceola spit lightning out of a bottle to grab third off a hot pace in his elimination. Up Your Deo can uncork a sub-26 second final quarter on his best day. Southwind Coors has the heart of Stonehenge and will keep grinding and grinding until the pulp meets the rind. French Wine is well-bred and good at keeping tabs. No. 9 Ghostly Casper has a wicked late kick and can power over the top if moved at the right time by multiple-Hambletonian winner Brian Sears. And then No. 10 Tactical Approach also can close quickly if the circumstances allow.

I guess No. 4 Winner’s Bet also can win here, but I just worry two weeks off Lasix won’t do his lungs much good.

I’ve covered the Hambletonian for 13 years. Sure, I wasn’t around for Muscle Hill or Muscles Yankee, but I was here for Muscle Massive. Every year, the Hambletonian had definitive A-tier horses with Bs and Cs praying for happenstance to go their way.

Maybe 2011 with Broad Bahn and 2012 with Market Share are the exception, but this undoubtedly is the most wide-open Hambletonian of my time in this sport. And if we get the right odds, this Hambletonian stands to be the best betting opportunity the race has ever offered.


Coverage at
Horse Racing Nation of the Hambletonian and the Hambletonian Oaks is made possible via a sponsorship by The Meadowlands.

The post Hambletonian fair odds: Most likely winners are not best bets appeared first on RT News Today.



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