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Betting the Haskell Stakes: Mage Not Favored

The 2023 Haskell Stakes is the highlight on today’s Race card at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Kentucky Derby winner Mage will be in the field…but is not the favorite.

The Haskell is on NBC at 5P ET. John Furlong takes a look at the card.

UNITED NATIONS STAKES

RACE 11, MONMOUTH PARK
SATURDAY JULY 22, POST TIME 5:06PM ET

Let’s start with the morning-line favorite, #9 Red Knight. He is trained by Mike Maker, who often excels in these long-distance turf races, and this is the only horse in the field that already has a Grade 1 win in North America. But I have some concerns. This 9-year-old gelding is a deep closer, and I am just not sure there is enough early pace in this race to set up his late kick. Plus, the Monmouth turf course does not favor deep closers as much as many other turf courses do. Also – Red Knight has never run at Monmouth before.

I am much more interested #3 Catnip. First, he is proven over this Monmouth turf course- each of his last two wins have come at this track. Secondly, he has tactical speed in a race that lacks any sort of early pace – I am expecting him to sit 2nd or 3rd in the early stages of the race and get the first run on the closers. And finally, I do not think we have seen the best of him yet – he has never run at this 1 3/8-mile distance before, but based on his pedigree, he should excel at this marathon turf distance.

To be honest, I think Catnip is the most likely winner of this race – and since he is not going to be the favorite, that means he is going to be a massive overlay. This is the perfect situation to make a big win bet.

THE PLAY:
WIN: #3 CATNIP, AT 5/2 OR HIGHER

HASKELL STAKES

RACE 12, MONMOUTH PARK
SATURDAY JULY 22, POST TIME 5:45PM ET

This is a fantastic edition of the Haskell, and it is headlined by #8 Arabian Knight. I know he has not raced since January, but this horse is really, really talented. He has blown the doors off of some decent competition in each of his 2 career starts, and it is hard to find any faults with him. And Bob Baffert, who has won this race a record nine times, would not ship him across the country if he was not ready to fire off the layoff.

Arabian Knight is the most likely winner. But there are some other really good horses in this race. And maybe I am getting too cute here, but I think I think there is one horse that has as similar a ceiling as Arabian Knight#7 Extra Anejo.

Extra Anejo missed the Triple Crown after he suffered an injury in December, but this horse has always been held in high esteem by his connections. Just like Arabian Knight, he broke his maiden in dominant fashion, winning by 9½ lengths without being asked. Arabian Knight is a special talent, but I think Extra Anejo is the only horse in this field who has a ceiling as high as Arabian Knight – and he will be at least 3x the price. I am going to play the seven to win and play the eight over the seven in a cold exacta.

THE PLAY:
WIN: #7 EXTRA ANEJO, at 9/2 or higher
EXACTA: 8/7 and 7/8

Enjoy the races this afternoon on NBC and Peacock and enjoy the sweat.

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