Mar 28, 2023; Miami, Florida, US; Holger Rune (DEN) serves against Taylor Fritz (USA) (not pictured) on day nine of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

• Holger Rune is a -126 favorite over Daniil Medvedev in their ATP Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinal match on Friday, April 14
• Sixth-seeded Rune won his Round of 16 match by walkover against Matteo Berrettini
• This will be the first tournament meeting between these two players

Holger Rune reached the ATP Monte Carlos Masters quarterfinal without the need to hit a ball, but Daniil Medvedev wasn’t so fortunate. The Russian player needed to survive a rugged Round of 16 three-set tong war against longtime rival Alexander Zverev. Read on for our Medvedev vs Rune prediction here.

Oddsmakers are going with the rested Rune to overcome Medvedev in this matchup. He’s set as the -126 betting pick in the Medvedev vs Rune odds to win their quarterfinal match set for Friday, April 14 with a 7:40 am ET scheduled start. This will be the first meeting between Medvedev and Rune.

Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune Odds

Rune is a slight favorite. You can play underdog Medvedev at a +104 betting line in the Monte Carlo Masters odds. The spread is +1.5 for Medvedev and -1.5 for Rune. The over/under on the match total is set at 22.5 games.

Medvedev vs Rune odds as of April 13 are at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Medvedev Survives Fight to Finish With Zverev

World #5 Medvedev recovered from dropping the first set to continue his mastery over world #16 Zverev via a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(9-7) three-set victory. The #3 seed in Monte Carlo, Medvedev has now beaten #13 seed Zverev in seven of their last eight matches. He’s also taken four straight Masters 1000 matches from his German rival.

Medvedev survived eight double faults, four more than committed by Zverev. He held a 72-63% edge on first-service points and a 47-44% advantage on second-service points. Medvedev won 55% of receiving points, compared to just 44% for Zverev.

Daniil Medvedev. Thriving in the CHAOS

With Zverev serving for the match twice and holding two match points, @DaniilMedwed eventually comes through 3-6 7-5 7-6(7)!#RolexMonteCarloMasters pic.twitter.com/JGl1PqAWFH

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 13, 2023

Zverev and Medvedev were meeting for the 14th time in ATP tournament play and the for the seventh time in an ATP Masters 1000 event. It was also the third time in four matches that they’ve required three sets to determine the winner. Amazingly, though, this was their first meeting on a clay surface since both were in the junior ranks.

Medvedev will be playing in his first ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal since 2019.

New Territory for Rune

Though he enjoyed a strong clay-court season in 2022, Rune hadn’t found much success at Monte Carlo prior to this tournament. It was the first time he’s ever reached the Round of 16. He’s the first Dane to ever advance to the Monte Carlo quarterfinals in the Open Era, and the first Danish player to feature in a clay-court ATP Masters 1000 level since that format began in 1990.

1 – @holgerrune2003 is the first player from Denmark to reach the QFs at Monte Carlo in the Open Era, and the first Dane to reach a clay-court QF at ATP Masters 1000 level since the format was introduced in 1990. Pioneer.#RolexMonteCarloMasters | @atptour @ATPMediaInfo pic.twitter.com/cuJkkKh6vL

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) April 13, 2023

Thanks to an abdominal injury to opponent Matteo Berrettini that forced the Italian player to withdraw, Rune is a first-time quarterfinalist without the need to be scoring a point. He’s 19-18 all-time in matches played on clay court surfaces.

In the Round of 32, world #9 Rune was ousting Austria’s Dominic Thiem. A 2017-18 French Open finalist, Thiem was offering little in the way of resistance. He went down in straight sets to his Danish opponent 6-2, 6-4.

Just 19 years of age, Rune’s feats of clay last year included his first-ever ATP title on the surface at Munich and a quarterfinal appearance at Roland Garros.  Were he to reach the semifinals at Monte Carlo, Rune would climb to #7 in the ATP world rankings, a personal best for him and the highest ranking ever for a Danish player.

Rune vs Zverev Prediction

Rune is a strong baseline player who tends to play his best tennis on faster surfaces. But he’s also been very fortunate so far in this tournament. Berrettini was unable to play, while former world #3 Thiem is still rebounding from wrist surgery and clearly isn’t at the top of his game.

Medvedev vs Rune Head-to-Head

Medvedev delivers an overpowering serve and backs it up with an outstanding defensive game. He also utilizes his length thanks to his 6-foot-6 frame to get to balls that other players might not.

It’s a combination of skills that will prove too much for Rune to overcome. But it will still take Medvedev three sets to get the job done, so play the over on total games in our Medvedev vs Rune prediction.

Rune vs Medvedev Pick: Over 22.5 games (-112)

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