Aug 29, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Taylor Fritz of the United States celebrates after winning a point against Brandon Holt of the United States on day one of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

• An All-American semifinal pits Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz at the Mexican Open Friday (9 pm ET)
• Taylor Fritz is at an all-time ranking high this week and is favored in the Paul vs Fritz odds
• Scroll down as we break down our top Paul vs Fritz prediction

Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz is sort of the all-American version of the Dubai semifinal between Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev – two similarly-aged players, who have known each other since they were kids, with one having an earlier breakthrough than the other. Who’s the best bet for our Paul vs Fritz prediction? Read on to find out.

Paul vs Fritz Odds

The Paul vs Fritz odds make Fritz the favorite at -194 and Fritz the underdog at +160. The total sets in the match are set 23.5 for this Mexican Open semifinal. Odds as of March 3 at FanDuel.

Fritz Slays North America to Reach Semis

The top North American players – most of them, these days, of similar young age – were in Acapulco this week. And Taylor Fritz has seen plenty of them.

First, he got by their tennis father, 37-year-old John Isner, in a three-setter in which the 6-10 Isner had only nine aces. For him, that’s a shockingly low total. And it speaks more to the extreme slowness of the court in Acapulco than it does to a poor serving day on his part.

After that, he got past former junior rival Denis Shapovalov, a Canadian who is struggling in 2023 but managed to eke his way through the first round, only to be defeated in straight sets by Fritz.

And in Thursday’s quarterfinal, he also won in straight sets – 6-3, 6-4 over another top American in Frances Tiafoe.

Now, he gets yet another contemporary in Tommy Paul.

Paul vs Fritz Head-to-Head

Both from the 1997 crop, Paul and Fritz come from opposite ends of the country and different circumstances (Fritz a child of privilege in southern California, Paul raised by a single mother on the East Coast). But as juniors, they were the best of their bunch.

Paul won a three-setter in the final of the junior French Open in 2015. A few months later, in the final of the US Open juniors, it was Fritz who prevailed in three sets.

Those results mirror what would likely happen even today, with Fritz stronger on a faster hard court and Paul, the better on the slower red clay.

That’s the biggest reason why Fritz is the favorite to take the Paul vs Fritz matchup on Friday.

Paul the Australian Open Semifinalist

But it was Paul who had the big Grand Slam result this year, reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open in January.

He was but a ship passing in the night at the tournament in Delray Beach, Fla. two weeks later, still not recovered from his efforts Down Under.

But if he has impressed in Acapulco this week, Paul also has had a much easier draw: Emilio Gomez of Ecuador, a retirement by opponent Michael Mmoh in the second round, and a 59-minute, 6-2, 6-2 victory over American Mackenzie McDonald in the quarterfinals.

He also took advantage of the late withdrawal by world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, who was his likely quarterfinal opponent.

Paul vs Fritz Match History

The variable in Acapulco that might work in Paul’s favor is the slowness of the court.

It means long rallies, in many cases. And that’s much more up Paul’s alley than Fritz’s. He’s also the more compact of the two, less likely to be affected by the extreme humidity.

Paul vs Fritz Prediction

Fritz is the bigger server by far. But the court speed will emphasize Paul’s ability to get there and put a good swing on the return. But he’s not faced a serve of that quality this week; every opponent Fritz has faced is arguably a better player than Paul.

So Paul will have to step it up. His quickness on court will help. We don’t think he can win, but he may well make it a contest in our Paul vs Fritz prediction.

Paul vs Fritz Picks: Fritz in Three Sets (+260)

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