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The 2023 MLB season draws nearer each day. Now just five weeks from Opening Day, sportsbooks have posted all of the usual MLB futures. The general tenor around the Cleveland Guardians’ odds is positive. They have the highest win total in the A.L. Central and are the +135 favorites to win a second straight division title.

But where the team’s prospects are looking up from the perspective of oddsmakers, the player futures for Cleveland’s biggest stars have actually trended down compared to years past. Star pitcher Shane Bieber, who had been a top-two preseason Cy Young favorite each of the past two seasons, finds himself only tied for fifth in the opening Cy Young odds.

2023 A.L. Cy Young Odds

Two-time winner and newcomer to the American League, Jacob deGrom of the Texas Rangers will start the season as the outright A.L. Cy Young favorite at +500. Gerrit Cole, who has finished runner-up twice and in the top five of the vote five separate times, opens as the second-favorite to claim his first award at +600. The top-five is rounded out by young Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays (+900), last year’s runner-up Dylan Cease of the White Sox (+900), and newest Yankee Carlos Rodon, who is tied with Bieber at +1000.

Bieber coming off (mildly) encouraging season

The fact that oddsmakers don’t hold Bieber in as high regard as they did at this time last year is understandable. The 27-year-old has not been able to reproduce the form that won him the 2020 award in unanimous fashion. During his Cy Young-winning campaign, Bieber had a sparkling 1.69 ERA, 14.2 K/9, and a 2.07 FIP, all of which led the majors.

In an injury-shortened 2021, his ERA ballooned to 3.17. He was still fanning batters at an impressive rate (12.5 K/9) but his control had abandoned him. His BB/9 rose from 2.4 to 3.1 and his WHIP inflated to 1.210 from 0.866. Last year, Bieber put a good deal more focus on control, but with mixed results; his average fastball velocity, which was 94 MPH back in 2020, fell to 91, and his ability to generate strikeouts suffered greatly. His K/9 rate fell to just 8.9, the lowest of his career.

Bieber’s BB/9, however, reduced to 0.8, the best mark of his career. In terms of run prevention, the new approach was an improvement over 2021; his ERA improved to 2.88 and his FIP to 2.87 (from 3.03). But those numbers are still several blocks away from his Cy Young form, and it’s clear that oddsmakers believe he has a lower ceiling.

Jacob deGrom injury concerns continue

Based purely on potential, there is little doubt that deGrom deserves to be the favorite. Back in 2021, deGrom was putting together arguably the best season by a pitcher in MLB history before a forearm injury derailed everything. Through the first half, the former Met had a 1.08 ERA, 0.554 WHIP, 14.3 K/9, and an absolutely ludicrous 13.27-to-1 K/BB ratio. But he was placed on the IR in July and would go on to miss the next calendar year due to the arm injury. When he returned in mid-2022, he wasn’t quite as dominant as he had been in 2021, but he wasn’t far off. While his ERA rose to 3.08, his K/BB ratio was still a preposterous 12.75-to-1 and his FIP (which aims to take luck out of the ERA equation) was still an immaculate 2.13. The stuff was still there.

The Rangers saw enough to sign the 34-year-old to a massive five-year, $185 million contract. But just last week, deGrom was already missing-in-action from spring training due to “tightness” in his side.

DeGrom has managed just 156.1 innings combined over the past two seasons. From 2017 to 2019, he reached at least 200 innings each year, winning the National League Cy Young in 2018 and 2019.

Excepting the shortened 2020 season, the fewest innings pitched by a Cy Young-winner over the past 20 years was 167 by Corbin Burnes in 2021.

DeGrom’s Rangers open the season with an interleague series at home against the reigning NL-champion Philadelphia Phillies on March 30th. The Guardians start the year with a three-game set in Seattle against the Mariners.

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