Maryland vs. Michigan Odds

Maryland and Michigan will open up Big Ten play in Ann Arbor on New Year’s Day. This is a matchup that both teams will have circled in order to build momentum going into conference play.

Maryland is coming off back-to-back blowout wins against inferior Saint Peter’s and UMBC squads. These two wins snapped a three-game skid that saw the Terrapins lose to Wisconsin, Tennessee and UCLA all within an eight-day span.

Michigan will be chomping at the bit to get back out on its home floor after being upset by Central Michigan on Thursday, 63-61. The Wolverines shot an abysmal 6-of-22 from 3-point range and were out-rebounded, 44-32.

In order to avoid a three-game losing streak, Michigan will need to take care of business at home against a Maryland team eager to play spoiler.

Outside of its three-game losing streak in mid-December, Maryland had a successful non-conference. The Terrapins notched victories over Saint Louis, Miami and Illinois (all top-80 nationally).

As of late, Maryland has been led by senior Hakim Hart.

Hart’s play has seemingly had a direct correlation with the Terrapins’ results. During their three-game losing streak, Hart averaged just 7.3 points per game. In their two victories since, Hart averaged 17 points in both contests.

This is reflected in EvanMiya’s BPR rankings that has Hart as a full 0.5 points more valuable than any Maryland player.

On Sunday, Hart will be matched up with Michigan freshman Jett Howard, who has done a little bit of everything for the Wolverines this season. Howard has a block percentage of 3.2%, which is second on the team to only Hunter Dickinson.

Look for Howard to be able to frustrate Hart, who has been integral to Maryland’s success.

Another issue that Maryland must address is how to deal with Dickinson on the interior. The Terrapins will roll out 6-foot-8 senior Donta Scott and 6-foot-9 center Julian Reese in the frontcourt to combat Dickinson’s presence.

So far this season, both Scott and Reese have failed to show consistency down-low. Reese has been dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of Maryland’s Dec. 22 meeting with Saint Peter’s and was only able to put up seven points in his return against UMBC.

For Reese, the struggle has been his inability to defend without fouling, recording three fouls in his last five games. This is an issue that will be exposed by Dickinson, who is a master at getting to the free-throw line, drawing 4.9 fouls per game.

Overall, the free throw battle is another area in which I see Maryland struggling in this matchup. The Terrapins have relied heavily on their ability to get to the line, recording 20.3% of their points from the charity stripe (84th nationally).

Michigan has been excellent at defending without fouling this season, only allowing its opponents to score 17.5% of its points from the free-throw line.

Although Michigan has some clear advantages in this matchup, it isn’t easy to determine if the Wolverines will be up the task.

It’s too early in the season to call this matchup with Maryland a must-win for the Wolverines, but it sure does have that feel to it.

Michigan has not beaten an opponent inside the top 150 since its third game of the season in which it defeated Pitt, 91-60. Since then, Michigan has lost all of its marquee games against Arizona State, Virginia, Kentucky and North Carolina.

Where Michigan needs to see improvement is on the glass. The Wolverines rank 188th in offensive rebounding percentage defensively and 310th offensively. These extra possessions are crucial for a Michigan team that has lost four of its five games by four points or less.

In terms of rebounding, Maryland presents a great opportunity for the Wolverines to get back on track. The Terrapins rank outside the top 130 in offensive rebounding percentage on both ends of the floor.

For Michigan to come away with a win, it will need Dickinson to return to MVP form.

He’ll have the matchup to do so against a Maryland defense that allows 56.7% of its points inside the 3-point line (42nd-highest rate in the country).

Look for Dickinson to have success on the interior and create issues for a Maryland frontcourt that has been foul prone this season.

Maryland vs. Michigan Betting Pick

It’s not easy to back this Michigan team given the way it’s played against premier competition this season.

That being said, the Wolverines have lost four one-possession games that have them undervalued in the market.

In what is a crucial get-right game for the Wolverines, Michigan has the matchups necessary to come away with the win.

Additionally, I look for Maryland to continue its recent struggle against teams inside the top-70.

Give me the home underdog in what will be a close Big Ten battle.

Pick: Michigan +1 or Better

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