Tennis betting tips: Adelaide International 1

1pt e.w. Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Adelaide International at 7/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Adelaide International at 40/1 (BetVictor)

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Adelaide International 1

• Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)

Novak Djokovic is back in Australia this week – and not in a detention centre.

After the chaos of 12 months ago which saw his legion of fans streaming court hearings rather than tennis matches, the Serb gets the chance to cement his position as Australian Open title favourite with his first outing of the season in Adelaide.

He may only be ranked fifth at present but by finishing his truncated 2022 campaign by winning the ATP Finals, Djokovic sent out a message that he remains the player to beat heading into 2023.

When he did play last season he was hard to defeat, losing only seven times and just twice after the claycourt season.

For me, he’s clearly the most likely winner in the opening week of the new campaign but you have to question whether there’s any value in his 7/5 price (some firms are odds-on).

Djokovic has already spoken about how “the goal is to peak in Melbourne” (for the Australian Open), while his outings at the recent World Tennis League exhibition event in Dubai were hardly impressive – he lost to Alex Zverev before struggling past Sebastian Ofner.

While it would be daft to read too much into such matches, they do add to a list of potential concerns.

In addition, Djokovic has made changes to his backroom team in recent weeks, notably replacing his long-time physio.

Perhaps the biggest issue will be the quality of the field.

There are eight of the world’s top 20 in attendance this week with Denis Shapovalov, who ended 2022 strongly, and Daniil Medvedev both possible opponents before the final.

I won’t be surprised if the top seed wins here but there are always doubts in the first week of the season and the price, for me, doesn’t offer value.

Perhaps I should take Djokovic on in the top half.

I’d probably opt to do so with Shapovalov, who I was impressed with towards the end of 2022.

I picked him out in my preview of the 2023 season as a whole earlier this month and will be keen to see how he goes this week at 33/1.

Felix to hit the ground running

However, my betting approach is going to be to try to find the finalist from the other side of the draw and the man who looks worth siding with is FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.

Like Shapovalov, FAA was a real eyecatcher in the autumn as he stormed to three successive titles and won 16 matches on the spin.

His serve was a key factor in that run as he regularly offered up few chances on it – even during his unsuccessful ATP Finals campaign, he held serve throughout his victory over Rafael Nadal.

The slick Greenset courts of Australia should aid that shot this week as Auger-Aliassime returns to a venue where he made the semi-finals three years ago.

When the tournament was moved to Melbourne (for Covid reasons) in 2021, he started his season by reaching the final – I always feel it’s good to be backing players who have shown that ability to hit the ground running at the start of the year.

This bottom section definitely looks the weaker half, albeit there are still good players to overcome.

Holger Rune is FAA’s slated quarter-final foe, while Andrey Rublev or Jannik Sinner may await in the last four.

Still, I think that’s a winnable half for Auger-Aliassime, who has talked about how is aiming to “ride that wave” of success for as long as possible.

“Things have been working really well in the last few months for me, so hopefully that keeps going. I’m confident with the way I’ve been training, with the way I’ve prepared,” he said on Saturday.

“My body’s feeling good. My mind also. I’m confident that I can keep on playing some good tennis.”

At a best price 7/1, I’ll back Auger-Aliassime each way.

Agut feeling

For a longer shot, I also like the look of ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT.

Few players have a better track record than the Spaniard for starting the season fast.

He won in the opening week of the season in 2019 (Doha) and 2017 (Chennai), while in the past three years he’s begun the year at the ATP Cup and racked up an 11-3 win-loss record.

Overall, four of his 11 ATP titles have come in the month of January, while he’s also made two other finals.

Admittedly RBA faces a tough start against Rublev but he’s actually 3-1 up against the Russian on hardcourts.

OK, Bautista Agut may not have had a vintage 2022 but he still won two titles and I see the fact that he’s made changes to his coaching team in the close season as a positive thing – Felix Mantilla comes in for Tomas Carbonell with Daniel Gimeno Traver remaining.

Even at 34, Bautista Agut is clearly still looking to improve and while it may be a big ask for him to make the final this week, it’s far from impossible.

I’ll try a small-stakes punt at 40/1.

It’s worth noting that the tournament begins on Sunday (0330 GMT) although there are only two low-key, main-draw matches on the opening day.

Tata Open Maharashtra

• Pune, India (outdoor hard)

Will appear here…

Published at 1340 GMT on 31/12/22

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