Golf betting tips: Open de Espana

1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Joachim B. Hansen at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Daniel van Tonder at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 125/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Renato Paratore at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The shortest-priced favourite of the year across the main men’s tours? It can only mean one thing – Jon Rahm is back on home soil, bidding for a third victory in the Open de Espana and second at this week’s course, Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

Rahm won by five shots here in 2019, defying a surprising lack of course knowledge, and when he went out in 30 on day one of his hat-trick bid, bookmakers all but shut up shop. Second at halfway, he remained an odds-on chance until quickly playing his way out of contention on Saturday, blowing the tournament wide open in the process.

There were excuses. Rahm had arrived on the back of a break which followed a crushing singles defeat at the end of a draining Ryder Cup. He’d enjoyed a fantastic summer, but his exertions in winning the US Open soon after he’d been involved in a huge story in the Memorial Tournament eventually took their toll. By the time he got to Spain, it was always going to be a question of what more does he have to give.

Of course, he was bidding to match Seve’s trio of victories in this event and he’ll surely surpass it in time. That determination and what looks a shallower field make him look a stronger candidate towards the end of a quieter campaign, one he’d dearly love to end on a high having underwhelmed at times.

But he’s 9/4. It’s just too short to take seriously, and if you do think he looks unbeatable then my advice would be to sit this one out. I don’t, because this is golf, and because he’s plainly not been the best version of himself for most of 2022. That said, such is my respect for the favourite that I’m only willing to speculate at big prices.

That means no second chance for Adri Arnaus, who was a heartbreaking runner-up to Rafa Cabrera Bello in another Spanish-dominated renewal a year ago. Arnaus really ought to have won and deserves now to be higher up the market, having got the monkey off his back at PGA Catalunya. Yet having backed him at 50/1 in a weaker field recently, not even the dominance of Spaniards on home soil is enough to row in on a golfer not at his best at a third of those odds.

I do, however, think his skill set is the right one. Conquering the par-fives, typically through long drives and short approaches, has always been essential at Club de Campo. Cabrera Bello played them in an average of 4.25 strokes, Rahm in 4.00, and 2008 Madrid Masters winner Charl Schwartzel in a remarkable 3.75. Taking apart those three plus the driveable 18th is vital and big-hitting is the best place to start.

It’s also worth stressing that the advantage Spanish players enjoy is thoroughly logical. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that they’ve a generally terrible record in the Dunhill Links, where wooly hats and rain jackets were needed for much of last week. In Madrid, low winds and temperatures not far off 30C make for a stark contrast, and one players who learned their trade in short sleeves are bound to appreciate.

South Africans to shine in the Spanish sun

The same goes for South Africans, who also have a strong record in this part of the world, and WILCO NIENABER heads a group of three who have all the tools required for this challenge.

Nienaber has three top-10s from just eight starts in Spain including when sixth here last year, his single best performance of the DP World Tour season. It came despite a slow start – only one player in the eventual top 50 shot higher than his opening 71 – and by the end of the week he was flying.

Playing the par-fives in 11-under, only one more than Rahm had done as champion, he also bullied the 18th hole and rounds of 65 and 64 demonstrated just what this supreme hitter can do to a course like Club de Campo. It’s so much better for him than the Dunhill Links, where an eight at the Road Hole put paid to his chances on Thursday, and than Le Golf National, where he’s shackled off the tee.

Here, he can get back on the front foot and start gaining strokes with his awesome driving again and at 14th in par-five scoring for the season, we should get our share of eagle and birdie chances on the holes which will help determine who puts it up to Rahm.

Nienaber also has the focus and determination guaranteed by his position in golfing no man’s land – he’s still without full status on the DP World Tour and still needs another high finish this year if he’s to get it. Returning to a course where he flourished on debut, he’ll be a big factor here if enjoying one of his better weeks with the putter.

From a value perspective the best bet on the board is his compatriot DANIEL VAN TONDER, who stands out at three-figure prices.

As well as brute force, touch around the green has been vital here. Club de Campo’s greens are small and generally firm and in 2021, players who ranked first, tied second, tied second and fifth in scrambling all hit the frame, the eventual winner Cabrera Bello among them. In 2019, Rahm ranked third and Cabrera Bello first – they finished first and second.

Van Tonder, an awesome driver with serious power at his disposal, is also very sharp in the short-game department. We saw it when he chipped in en route to the SA Open title last year and it’s a part of his game that goes unnoticed, despite consistently good numbers. This year he ranks 25th in SG: around the green.

We didn’t get to see these skills put to use last year as he missed the cut, but that was the fourth of five in a row as he searched for his game. This time he’s shown much more, driving the ball superbly when 29th in Crans, flushing it during the first round of the BMW PGA, producing some of his best tee-to-green stats on record only to putt his way to an early exit in Paris, and then finishing 20th in the Dunhill Links.

Van Tonder’s record in Scotland prior to last week read MC-61-MC-MC-MC-MC, three of those via the Dunhill Links, so again it was an eye-catching display under less-than-ideal conditions. He’ll certainly be one who is glad to get back to sunnier climes and he does so with his long-game really beginning to purr, even if I do have my doubts as to the specific figures which ranked him the leading player from tee-to-green at St Andrews last week.

Notwithstanding issues with the numbers themselves, there’s no denying he hit it well yet again and with this being a perfect course for him, he’d be the player I’m most excited about across all tournaments this week. Hopefully he lives up to the hype.

Confidence in ZANDER LOMBARD is not so easy to come by given his volatile history, but he’s another from South Africa who out to relish this test.

Lombard has played plenty of good golf this year with three top-five finishes, the most recent of them back in August. He added 18th at HimmerLand, a fine effort given how poorly he putted, and was a solid 39th in Paris where we’d all probably expect him to come unstuck.

Last week’s missed cut might seem like a backwards step but I can’t stress enough how flimsy Dunhill Links form can be at the best of times. Cabrera Bello had shot 77 to depart early there before winning this and punters would’ve been far better off focusing on his previous two starts, which had shown promise. Rahm also missed the cut there in 2019 and with last Friday’s weather prompting even a Scotsman to say that it wasn’t really golf, I don’t think we should let it guide us.

Ignore it, and Lombard appears like someone ticking over nicely. When he came here last year that was far from the case yet he snapped a run of missed cuts at a course where he’d been seventh in 2019, his best performance of the season and one which also came after a promising run from summer through to autumn.

Lombard was best of the rest for much of that tournament, one dominated by Spanish players, and my view is that he returns with his game in far better shape than may first appear. Certainly, every department has been of a high standard at some stage during the last four weeks, so it’s just about putting it together.

You might say it was ever thus with Lombard and that’s true, but three-figure prices are well worth the associated risks.

Louis de Jager is another South African with a chance. His putting has improved lately, his long-game has been very solid for most of the year, he’s often played well in Spain and he’s certainly good enough to go close at this level, but I can’t say I found prices in the 66/1 region particularly exciting.

Pablo the pick of the home contingent?

As for the Spaniards, there are cases to be made for veterans Alvaro Quiros and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano at big prices, Santiago Tarrio could improve for a return home and Jorge Campillo has played a lot of good golf this year, but if there’s value in any of them it’s probably with Pablo Larrazabal.

A seven-time DP World Tour winner, two of them having come in the space of six weeks back in spring, he has nothing to fear from anyone bar the favourite if on a going week. The fact that among his victims over the years have been Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia suggests he’d fancy a pop at Rahm on Sunday, too.

The reason for the price is that he’s been a little out of sorts lately, but it’s only three starts since he was mid-pack at Wentworth and his Dunhill Links record is abysmal. In fact his results in those events read 35-MC last year so this year’s 32-MC (withdrew in Italy) represents an almost identical preparation, and he played nicely here for 20th.

In 2019, 33rd place was a marked improvement on missed cuts either side and having finally broken his duck on home soil in the ISPS Handa Championship, perhaps he can now do so in the event he covets most. It’s one he’s contended for to varying degrees five times down the years and while I’m not sure he’s a perfect course fit despite third place here in 2008, he’s not easy to overlook at 50/1.

Defending champion Cabrera Bello is also entitled to respect but I’ll stick to those at bigger prices, continuing with JOACHIM B. HANSEN.

The Dane has won in each of the last two seasons, both towards the end of the campaign, and his form here is excellent. In 2019 he arrived without having been playing well and took fourth place behind three Spanish players, then last year he produced four more strong rounds for 24th.

With that course record and his touch of class, I’m of the view he’d have to have shown nothing of late to justify prices touching 100/1, but that isn’t the case. Two starts ago, at another course he likes, Hansen finished 13th and it was only a few weeks before that he was 14th in the Alps. His Dunhill Links record on the other hand now reads 55-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC, so the way he played last week is all but meaningless.

Right now he’s driving it well and the putter has warmed up, but it’s the other two departments where he does have questions to answer. Approach play is where Hansen makes his money – his best is among the best on the circuit, when everything clicks. Around the green, on the other hand, he is very poor, and that always threatens to undermine anything good.

As far as the approaches are concerned we have seen flashes lately, notably in Switzerland but also Denmark thereafter. He was good in Paris for the most part, too, gaining strokes despite a couple of water balls, and a closing 66 there was Hansen at something like his best.

Having generally played well in Spain over the years and in fact won his first professional title here, this is one Dane who will be happy to leave behind the miserable Scottish weather we saw during the Dunhill Links, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he makes it three winning years in a row if that short-game holds up.

Encouragement there is hard to find but he did somehow lead the field in SG: around the green in this event last year. Should he hit the ball as well as he can we may not need anything like that sort of performance to get a run at the places at a price which does a disservice to his class.

Min Woo Lee made the shortlist on account of his blend of power and touch, but I’ll finish with RENATO PARATORE at a considerably bigger price.

Dynamite around the green, Paratore ranks fourth for the season and he’s 11th in putting, which makes his just about the best short-game in the field.

Off the tee is where he can come unstuck and his approach work can also leave plenty to be desired, but while in and out he’s driven the ball well on several occasions recently including at the Open de France two starts ago.

No doubt many will be put off by an ugly second-round 84 in the Dunhill Links but either side of it he played fine and it was after a third-round 79 in the same event last year that he came to Club de Campo and finished ninth thanks to a closing 65.

That was the start of an excellent three-week run here in Spain, where he first got his card when third at Qualifying School in 2014, and if he wants to keep it for 2023 he needs another strong finish to the campaign.

Seeing flatmate Guido Migliozzi win in Paris might spur him on a little and this course, where wayward shots can be overcome and where those with magic hands have so often contended, is far more suitable for him than anything he’s played recently.

With two wins at this level, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rasmus Hojgaard his chief victims, he’s another of those who has upside to go with the downside(s) and rates good value at 125/1 and upwards.

Posted at 1830 BST on 03/10/22

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