Good Thursday morning. This is Eleni Courea.

DRIVING THE DAY

SCOOP — UK PLANS ENERGY SUMMIT: The U.K. is planning to host an international summit on energy security in the spring of 2024, Energy Secretary Grant Shapps tells my colleague Charlie Cooper.

It’s for security, stupid: In comments that seem primarily directed at his own party, Shapps stressed that there can be no “global security unless the world hits its climate targets” and if “millions of people are having to uproot because of weather patterns.”

On the RSVP list: Shapps wants to invite oil-producing Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — and potentially China (he says the summit should be “inclusive in nature”). It will be timed to coincide with the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with no invite extended to Moscow.

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Notably: Two unconnected Government officials tell Playbook there has been some talk of Shapps traveling to China this year, potentially as part of the U.K.-China energy dialogue (a regular set of talks between the British energy sec and their Chinese counterpart). Shapps said there were “no plans in place currently” but did not rule out a trip. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly’s planned visit to Beijing was pulled in July after the Chinese foreign minister disappeared.

Back at home: Shapps will review potential changes to the energy price cap to try to restore some competition to the sector, Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan reports.

FILLING THE VOID: Downing Street appears to have run out of announcements for its Small Boats Week, so Tories are making news of their own.

Today’s question: Will the Conservative Party pledge to quit the European Convention on Human Rights in its manifesto? At least eight Cabinet ministers are prepared to, according to the Telegraph splash (Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick set the ball rolling in his broadcast round). The BBC’s Nick Eardley spoke to senior Tories who said their party was likely to campaign to quit the ECHR if deportations to Rwanda continued to be blocked.

Not enthused: Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Attorney General Victoria Prentis, who both pointedly said this year that the government was committed to staying in the ECHR.

On the other hand: The Times’ Matt Dathan reports the “New Conservatives” group of MPs elected since the Brexit referendum is planning a campaign to make this a central issue of the manifesto. He also hears ministers are looking at a halfway option of changing the Human Rights Act to stipulate that the government can stop complying with the ECHR on immigration. But in his analysis, Dathan points out that unless deportation flights begin, the government is running out of things it can do.  

Never mind the barges: A majority of the public think housing asylum seekers on barges won’t have any deterrent effect, according to polling for the Times. Meanwhile the i’s Arj Singh reports that some of the tents the Home Office has bought for asylum seekers could be put up at the RAF Wethersfield in Essex.  

EYES EMOJI: Shapps tweeted pictures of himself Wednesday night in a bullet-proof vest surrounded by policemen and dogs. For a moment you might have thought he was the home secretary. A Tory wag quipped: “I think this is what’s called an audition.”

Incidentally also posing with police officers: Transport Secretary Mark Harper. It’s always Crime Week really.

Move along now: Met Police Commissioner Mark Rowley has told ministers to get a move on with legislation to give police chiefs the power to dismiss rogue officers. He tells the Times’ Fiona Hamilton: “I’ve got a big mission to sort out here and I’m in a hurry to get on with it, and it’s frustrating when that’s held up … There will be hundreds of officers who would have been sacked by officer-chaired panels but are still serving across the country.” It splashes the paper. Rowley has a Times op-ed too.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS WORRIED ABOUT: NHS England is publishing its latest stats on waiting lists and times at 9.30 a.m. The fourth of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five pledges is to cut NHS waiting lists.

ONE THING THAT’S GOING WELL: Banks are starting to offer cheaper mortgages, which splashes the Mail.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Tumbleweed.

FINALLY ON THE HORIZON? The Times’ Oli Wright reports that sign-off of an agreement for the U.K. to rejoin the EU’s Horizon research funding program could happen in September. A senior government source tells him Sunak is keen for a deal to avoid this becoming a political dividing line with Labour.

In other news: Just three people have applied for a Global Talent visa — the post-Brexit immigration route designed for prestigious prize-winners — since it launched two years ago, Sophie Inge reports for Research Professional News.

WHAT THE TORIES WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Tory MP Danny Kruger has written to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey about “eco-zombie” Labour candidate Alastair Strathern, who works there. Kruger asks Bailey (who may have bigger things to worry about) a series of HR-style questions about whether Strathern was at a demonstration “in the middle of the working day.” The Sun has the story.

What the Tories don’t want to talk about: The Guardian’s Aletha Adu and Rowena Mason have dug up past comments by Welsh Secretary David TC Davies about Traveller communities.

WHAT LABOUR WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The Ministry of Defense gave nearly £600,000 to P&O Ferries for passenger tickets and shipping military equipment to Europe despite condemning the firm for sacking 800 seafarers — the Mirror’s Ben Glaze has the scoop. The sum was revealed in an answer to a parliamentary question.

What Labour doesn’t want to talk about: Diane Abbott’s hastily deleted tweet responding to the news that 41 migrants had died in a shipwreck off the coast of Italy. The Express has a write-up.

WHAT THE LIB DEMS WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Water firms in England and Wales are covering up how much sewage is being pumped into rivers, lakes and coastlines, according to the Lib Dems — the BBC has a write-up. Water U.K. called the claim “fabricated and completely false.”

CYBERSECURITY CRISIS: Chinese dissidents and human rights activists living in the U.K. are concerned about the implications of the hacking of the electoral register, the Times’ Matt Dathan reports … while the government still isn’t sure who was behind the attack.

Meanwhile: After the names and ranks of PSNI officers who work with MI5 were accidentally published online in Tuesday’s “monumental” security breach, on Wednesday the PSNI revealed there had been a second data breach concerning the theft of documents and a laptop.

CHINA RESTRICTIONS: The government is weighing up how to respond to U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to begin restricting U.S. investment in China’s tech sector, the FT reports. Government will consult U.K. business and finance before deciding whether to follow suit.

CLUBBING TOGETHER: The Carlton Club has raised £250,000 for Tory MPs and their associations a few years after it received over £843,000 in COVID government grants, the Mirror’s John Stevens reports after digging through the accounts.

YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU: The military is considering raising the age cap on service personnel and hiring more neurodivergent people, Defense Minister Andrew Murrison has told the FT’s Lucy Fisher. Because of the tight labor market the army is finding it difficult to recruit.

BLOB WARS: Kenan Malik, an academic who once described Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s views on immigration as “odious,” has been invited to give a talk to civil servants about race, the Telegraph’s Steven Edginton reports. Malik hit back online after the paper dug up his comments.

BLOB WARS II: Cabinet Office Minister Jeremy Quin is leading an efficiency review amid concern about the increase in highly paid civil servants, the Telegraph reports.

TORY LONDON PROBE: Tory Chair Greg Hands has launched a review into the London Conservatives after their shambolic contest to pick a mayoral candidate, LBC’s Henry Riley reports. “Greg Hands has been getting it in the neck for allowing this to happen, and as a reaction has commissioned a review,” a source in the party tells him. The review is being carried out by Boris Johnson-ally Eddie Lister.

COALITION RELUCTANCE: The Lib Dems would be “very reluctant” to enter a coalition with Labour because of their past experience of being “heavily outnumbered,” former leader Vince Cable told LBC presenter Iain Dale’s Edinburgh Fringe show — the Scotsman has a write-up. Cable caused waves earlier this year when he said talks about a post-election deal between Labour and the Lib Dems would undeniably be happening.

POSTCARD FROM NUNEATON

GOOD MORNING: Folders litter the office floor of Sarah Shilton’s prefab nursery (Dan Bloom writes). “Excuse the mess!” Understandable, I reply. There are a lot of toddlers about. “No, no,” she says. “This is the staff.”

Child’s play: Links Daycare is crammed between back gardens and a primary school on the edge of Nuneaton. Shilton, who turns 56 today, is wide-eyed, on the edge of her seat, with a dyed-blonde pixie cut and a purple polo. She spends weekends finding wooden toys in charity shops. “My garage at home is full of stuff,” she says. “I bought a proper teapot for £2!” A wandering toddler taps the glass.

Times have changed … in her 23 years in charge, some for the better. “Gone are the days where people would say ‘oh, they’re just naughty,’” she says. “Behind every behavior is a reason.” But COVID lockdowns left a surge of “attachment anxiety.” One boy leaving for school aged 4 still has the skills of a 16-month-old. “It’s the sharing, mixing with other children,” she says. Some struggle with speech.

Material world: That’s worsened, her theory goes, as parents are pushed back to work earlier. “We all live in a rat race,” she sighs. “I think COVID helped us to slow down … now everyone’s forgotten.” That strain means “I’ve become a doctor. I’ve become a nurse. A marriage guidance counselor. A shoulder to cry on. A financial adviser.”

But Shilton’s biggest bugbear … is how others — including the government — “stereotype” her profession. She has a degree. Her job is about child psychology. Call us “nursery education,” not “childcare,” she says. “We’re not glorified babysitters.” 

AT THIS POINT: We have to move to the staff room — it seats two. The broadband engineers are in. There’s noise everywhere. Children screaming and laughing on one side; drilling on the other.

UP ON STAGE: Childcare — sorry, nursery education — is being eyed hungrily by both Labour and the Conservatives for votes. March’s budget “rabbit” was a huge expansion of state-funded places, with 15 hours a week for 9-month-olds kicking in (probably) just before the 2024 election. But Shilton says this puts the focus too much on parents getting into work, and not enough on the child’s needs. And that’s before you get to the funding …

School math: The hourly funding for “free” hours is going up by 33p in September for 3- and 4-year-olds, and £1.95 for 2-year-olds. But that’s a national average. Shilton gets less. Warwickshire Council (which says it is bound by government formulas) will give her £7.81 for 2-year-olds — 81p more than what she charges privately — but only £5.01 for older kids, £1.49 less. Other areas still haven’t been told their rates, as formulas for September aren’t published yet.

Paperwork mountain: Children receiving the pupil premium get a 62p-an-hour top-up, but most at Links don’t qualify. Partly, claims Shilton, because parents have to tell Links their National Insurance number and about any benefits … then the nursery has to fill it all in on a government portal.

Ratioed: Shilton scoffs at a much-discussed reform — starting next month — to let staff look after five 3-year-olds at a time instead of four. “I’m not interested.” It’s about safety and quality, she says. “You can be sitting trying to do a lovely interaction with a child. And behind you, you could have a child that’s climbing up the furniture. You’ve got to get them down.”

So why bother? This is all rather negative, I say. She insists she’d never do anything else. “I love it,” she says, suddenly a little misty-eyed. “I get so much satisfaction. I will take them off their parents crying, screaming, hitting me. They will leave us a year later, walk out that door shouting ‘bye Sarah, love you,’ hop off to school, and I’m like, ‘wow. We’ve done the job.’” Her frustration, she says, is that it’s not better. She feels abandoned by politicians. “They need to ask. They need to listen.”

After all this … you may be unsurprised to hear Shilton is a lifelong Labour voter, and won’t go blue. But she, like others I’ve spoken to, can’t tell me she’d elect Keir Starmer’s party tomorrow. “It will depend on Labour, Lib [Dems],” she says, “on looking really at their early years ethos, which I haven’t done — I’m that busy with life and trying to cope.” 

SEAT RECAP: Limber up, geeks! The bellwether since 1983, whose declaration was the moment David Cameron knew he’d won in 2015, will be unchanged in the boundary review. The former colliery town — Terry Wogan once mocked the ring road for going through the center — voted two-thirds for Brexit. Tory Marcus Jones now has a 13,144 majority, the biggest of any Nuneaton MP since 1997.

WALKABOUT: Jones takes me into town. As deputy chief whip, he’s made an exception to his no-press rule to talk Nuneaton. It’s market day. Sunny. Bustling. A stall selling biscuits blasts out Purple Rain. Randomly, it reminds me of where I spent my teenage years in Ashford, Kent — the chain stores, the Gurkha restaurants, the pedestrianized center, even the close ring road. Unremarkable but pleasant. 

Door-knocking: Jones, in a black tie from a constituent’s funeral in the morning, is hailed down everywhere. One man is so effusive, the MP has to assure me he’s not a plant. Jones gestures at demolition signs on the low-rise former Debenhams, which is due to be redeveloped into a library. A Hilton is being built. The former Conservative Club has a lovely sprung dance floor. He rattles off new developments and the “excellent” local hospital.

But but but … He also talks of delivery vans scuttling around the new-build estates. “It’s a massive challenge,” he says. “People are voting on their keyboard.”

Or put another way: When I tell Links I’m heading into town, Shilton quite literally bursts out laughing. “Good luck with that!” Riversley Park is nice, she says, eventually.

ON THE DOORSTEP: “Clearly people are feeling bruised and frustrated,” Jones admits, hurriedly ensuring he mentions Sunak’s five pledges too. There’s “a lot more to do to make the public more comfortable” on energy bills and petrol prices. But “there’s no love for Keir Starmer,” he adds. “It’s a case of the Conservative vote holding back at the moment, rather than people switching across to Labour.”

Bellwether forever: In just over (or under) a year, wary eyes will turn back to Nuneaton. It’s in the middle of the country, and in the middle of many demographics, says Jones — so much so, his colleagues still watch this place to see signs of what’s coming elsewhere. Remember that at 2 a.m. on election night.

BEYOND THE M25

ANOTHER COUNCIL IN CRISIS: Kirklees council in West Yorkshire said it was close to going bust unless a £47 million funding gap could be closed — the Guardian has more.

DRAKEFORD TO DEPART: Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford will leave the Senedd at the next election, having served as first minister since 2018 and been an MS in 2011. Sky News has a write-up.

BUSSED IN: Shadow Transport Secretary Louise Haigh is in Glasgow with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. She is attacking the SNP’s record on bus services.

ANOTHER TRAGEDY IN THE MED: Forty-one migrants are thought to have died in a shipwreck off the Italian island of Lampedusa. POLITICO’s Elena Giordano has more.

X FINED OVER TRUMP WARRANT: Elon Musk’s X, formerly Twitter, was fined $350,000 after missing a deadline to comply with a search warrant for former U.S. President Donald Trump’s account on the platform, as part of the U.S. Department of Justice’s January 6 investigation. POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney has more.

HAITI CRISIS: An American nurse and her child who were kidnapped in Haiti nearly two weeks ago were freed on Wednesday — the BBC has more. The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince was shut earlier this week as the security situation continues to deteriorate in the country.

SUMMIT ON NIGER: West African leaders will attend a summit in Nigerian capital Abuja about the situation in Niger — Reuters has more. The U.S. said it was concerned about the health and safety of Niger’s elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has spent more than two weeks under house arrest — the BBC has further details.

ECUADOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLAIN: Fernando Villavicencio, a candidate for president, was shot and killed at a campaign event in Quito, Ecuador on Wednesday, as political violence escalates ahead of the country’s election on August 20. More from AP.

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MEDIA ROUND

Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury James Murray broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … TalkTV (8.35 a.m.) … LBC News (8.50 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: DUP Commons Chief Whip Sammy Wilson (7.20 a.m.) … Former NHS Trust Chairman Roy Lilley (9.45 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Tory MP John Redwood (7.05 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio: Chair of the Police Federation Steve Hartshorn (8.10 a.m.).

Also on GB News Breakfast: Former MEP Patrick O’Flynn (7.25 a.m.) … Broadcaster Nigel Farage (8 a.m.).

Good Morning Britain: Labour MP Chris Bryant (7.25 a.m.).

Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former Targeting and Analysis Manager of the Labour Party Kevin Cunningham (8.05 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: No global security without net zero, Grant Shapps warns Tories.

Daily Express: Threat to quit rights treaty if Rwanda blocked again.

Daily Mail: Have we finally turned corner on mortgage misery?

Daily Mirror: ITV hit by more bully claims.

Daily Star: On the job.

Financial Times: Chinese tech giants in race for $5 billion of Nvidia chips to drive AI ambitions.

i: New talks on tented camp for migrants in Essex — amid Tory splits on crackdown.

Metro: BBC comic is charged with sex offences.

The Daily Telegraph: Cabinet call on PM to ditch ECHR.

The Guardian: Cost of living crisis forces student “COVID generation” to live at home.

The Independent: The even nastier party.

The Sun: Shame of thrones.

The Times: Met chief — Give us the power to sack rogues.

**Reach beyond the headlines with Power Play, POLITCO’s brand-new global podcast bringing you compelling discussions with international power players, hosted by award-winning broadcaster Anne McElvoy. Episodes of the must-listen podcast will drop this September – click here to be notified.** 

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Spectator: Country strife — William Moore on the covert campaign against field sports.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: An actually glorious summer’s day. Sunny with 26C highs.

LOBBY JOB: The Sun is hiring an experienced and proactive political correspondent in the run-up to the election after Natasha Clark was poached by LBC as its next political editor. The deadline for applications in August 27.

SPINNING WITH SUNAK: In this week’s Spectator, Katy Balls recalls the morning when she found herself next to Rishi Sunak at a spin class in Notting Hill. Fingers crossed for Taylor Swift next time.

CONGRATS: Former PLP Secretary Keir Cozens spent so much time with Labour MPs he decided he might as well become one. He has been selected as the party’s candidate in Great Yarmouth (h/t Michael Crick). Well wishes were pouring in from Labour folk on Twitter/X last night.

NEW GIG: Rory Gribbell leaves his political role to take up a civil service policy position in the DfE.

GET WELL SOON: BBC Scotland’s Political Editor Glenn Campbell will undergo surgery after being diagnosed with a brain tumor. He said he was “optimistic as it is possible to be.” Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross were among those wishing him a speedy recovery.

MORE WOOTTON CLAIMS: In the latest in a series of articles, Byline Times reports that GB News presenter Dan Wootton allegedly met young male reality TV stars through his work as a showbusiness journalist before privately propositioning them to do photo shoots at his home for “underwear brands” in what has been labeled an “abhorrent abuse of power.”

NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: Celebrate two years since hit musical Jersey Boys returned to the West End, at 2.30 p.m. and 7.30 p.m. in the Trafalgar Theatre — just 10 minutes away from the parliamentary estate.

Fringe benefits: Events at the Edinburgh Fringe today include SNP MP Joanna Cherry speaking at an “In Conversation” event from midday … LBC’s Iain Dale interviews former Scottish first minister and forthcoming author Nicola Sturgeon at 1 p.m. … and Dale and former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith both interview Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford at 4 p.m.

On the airwaves: Times Radio’s Patrick Maguire and historian Phil Tinline discuss why August isn’t silly season, looking back at big political moments of summers past on the Red Box podcast … Ian Wylie’s Radio 4 series Inside Pages, where he meets local reporters covering areas which don’t often receive national attention, is repeated from 9.30 a.m., starting with Caerphilly in south Wales … David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what’s behind the Niger coup and latest military unrest in Radio 4’s The Briefing Room at 8 p.m.

Recess reading: “The Forgers: The Forgotten Story of the Holocaust’s Most Audacious Rescue Operation” by historian Roger Moorhouse is published by Bodley Head.

Summer quiz: Can you name the runner-up in past Labour deputy leadership elections picked by John Rentoul?

NOW READ: The FT’s Robert Shrimsley on how Labour is motivated by the fear of losing — and why this is a boon to the Tories.

BIRTHDAYS: Deputy Commons Speaker Rosie Winterton … Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray … Former Universities Minister Sam Gyimah … Former Ynys Môn MP Albert Owen … Former Coatbridge MP Hugh Gaffney turns 60 … Leveling-Up SpAd Sophia True … Crossbench peer Elizabeth Butler-Sloss turns 90 … Lib Dem peer Rosalind Scott … former Japanese Ambassador to the U.K. Koji Tsuruoka.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Jack Lahart and Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producers Giulia Poloni and Seb Starcevic.

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