Good Wednesday morning. This is Eleni Courea, writing Playbook for the rest of the week.

DRIVING THE DAY

SMALL BOATS VS. HACKED VOTES: Home Office Minister Robert Jenrick is touring morning broadcast studios to tout his deal with Turkey to crack down on people smugglers.

But he will inevitably be asked about … a cyberattack on the Electoral Commission which has compromised the data of tens of millions of U.K. voters and sparked concerns of electoral interference. The hack — which was discovered 10 months ago and is being investigated by GCHQ — makes the front of several papers.

Whodunnit? Russia is the prime suspect among former intelligence chiefs (if not current ones). The Times’ Matt Dathan reports that GCHQ has found evidence of Russian activity during its investigation, but none yet of Kremlin involvement. Former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove tells the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith that Russia is “at the top of the suspects list by a mile.” Tory MP and cybersecurity APPG Chair Simon Fell tells the Mail that while it could also be China, Iran or North Korea, “it is Russia that has a history of interference in elections.”  

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The astonishing details: The breach went unnoticed for over a year … the hackers got access to Electoral Commission emails … and given they may have obtained the name and address of almost every voter, it’s likely one of the largest cybersecurity breaches in U.K. history (as the FT points out on p1).

In response: A government official said ministers had been kept updated about GCHQ’s investigation and that the National Crime and Security Center was working closely with the Electoral Commission. As it happens Deputy PM Oliver Dowden — who as Cabinet Office minister has oversight over security and published the national risk register last week — is running the government while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is away.

It’s not always hackers: The names and ranks of every single police officer in Northern Ireland were published on the internet by mistake after the PSNI botched a response to a freedom of information request. The Mail splash runs it alongside the Electoral Commission story as “two data breaches that just defy belief.”

Also hitting the airwaves this morning: Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, who has the 8.10 a.m. slot on the Today program and has written for the Mirror.

What Labour wants to talk about: Its plan to create a “charging commission” in September chaired by Vera Baird to look at increasing the number of crimes that are solved. The BBC has a write-up. Labour is pointing to Home Office data which show 2.4 million cases were dropped because of evidential difficulties in the last year. The Mirror’s John Stevens has spotted a contract where ministers commissioned research into the types of criminals voters think it’s worth keeping locked up.

GOING SWIMMINGLY: All this distracts somewhat from No. 10’s Small Boats Week. The agreement with Turkey today is the main story on this week’s Downing Street grid, according to a government official. Jenrick said it would involve “intensively sharing intelligence, people and technology to disrupt and dismantle people smuggling gangs” — here’s the Times write-up, which says a returns agreement is also on the cards.

Barging about: My colleagues Annabelle Dickson and Esther Webber have a piece out today about why the Tories are so keen to talk about the Bibby Stockholm and tackling undocumented migration — despite the government overseeing a shambolic asylum processing system.

The actual main story has been: Tory Deputy Chair Lee Anderson telling asylum seekers to “f*ck off back to France” if they don’t want to stay on a barge.

Another one worth asking Jenrick about: Why the Home Office has spent more than £1,500 covering up a cartoon mural painted to welcome children to the Manston refugee camp in Kent, according to figures obtained by the Guardian’s Rajeev Syal. The i’s Arj Singh first revealed claims that Jenrick asked for the mural to be painted over.

Today in lefty lawyers: The Mail runs quotes from several Tory MPs attacking the Law Society for attacking ministers for attacking so-called crooked law firms. The Guardian runs a piece from a lawyer who said she has had to review her security after she was named in a Tory media briefing and sent an “ominous” email.

Watch this space: The uptick in aggressive government comms in recent weeks gives us a flavor of what the Tory general election campaign will be like. A Sunak ally tells the FT: “Rishi is frustrated that Starmer gets away with too much. We’re going to be prosecuting” — get it? — “Labour’s policy positions. They’ve got a lot of explaining to do.”

To preempt that: Labour leader Keir Starmer is going to make clear he is against the formation of “ultra low emission zones” in cities other than London, the FT reports, after that scheme caused Labour major headaches in the Uxbrige by-election. The Sun runs a day-two story on the Tories calling on Labour to deselect its “eco-zombie” candidate … and the Countryside Alliance has warned that the move to net zero will have a “disproportionate impact” on rural areas.

So far: Tory attacks don’t appear to have made any difference to the party’s standing among voters. A poll of 11,000 people carried out by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus and covered by Channel 4 found Labour would win a whopping 460 seats were an election held now — and that the Tories would be reduced to 90 seats.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Tumbleweed.

GROWING SLOWLY: The U.K. faces five years of lost economic growth and won’t see inflation return to the 2 percent target before 2028, according to a report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Here’s the BBC write-up.

GROWING QUICKLY: The Taxpayers’ Alliance has done some data crunching on civil service numbers which splashes the Telegraph and gets good coverage in the Times and Mail. The analysis — based on Cabinet Office stats — suggests that the number of officials earning more than £100,000 has nearly doubled, and that the annual salary bill has grown by 60 percent. An ally of Cabinet Office Minister Jeremy Quin told Playbook: “The quickest way to a smaller civil service is a more productive one. That’s what we are focused on and have set out.”

IN POOR HEALTH: The Lib Dems have FOI-obtained data suggesting that the cost of repairs to NHS hospitals in England now tops £10 billion, with more than 100 chemical leaks reported in the last year. The Mail has a write-up. Junior doctors are striking again at the end of the week.

BLAIR’S BACKERS: The Tony Blair Institute is being bankrolled by U.S. billionaire and Oracle founder Larry Ellison, the Times’ Oli Wright reports after digging through its accounts.

If you read one thing this week: Make it Tom McTague’s engrossing account for Unherd of how — by creating and expanding the TBI — Blair has been behaving like he never stopped being prime minister.

SANCTIONS STRENGTHENED: The U.K. has announced its largest-ever crackdown on countries aiding Russia following an appeal from Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska on Independent TV. The Indy splashes on it.

WATER WORKS: The Guardian splashes on a lawsuit against water companies over failing to reveal the true scale of raw sewage discharges, which could mean the public receiving hundreds of millions in compensation.

POSTCARD FROM DUDLEY

PLAYBOOK ON TOUR: “Better to get hurt by the TRUTH than comforted with a lie,” bellows John Donovan’s pallet-sized motivational poster (Dan Bloom writes). “I love them,” grins the trucking boss, 56. Other motivational placards are everywhere, next to signs about mental health. Every driver gets a phone call from HQ once a week. “It’s a lonely job. It’s very isolating.”

Meet the boss: I’m in the Dudley warehouse of JJX Logistics, which Donovan founded in 1997. On shelves five-high to the roof, he gestures at stairlifts, sheet steel from China, flat roofs from Norway, 10-liter canisters of French vape concentrate. They’re “cheesecake” and “fruit flowers” flavored — the smell wafts unpleasantly. “These are the enemy,” he carries on. “Here, in these boxes, these are speed cameras.”

HARD TIMES: Donavan, in hi-viz and snazzy bright formal shoes (there’s a family event later) has needed motivational slogans lately. “I nearly lost the business in COVID. We had three weeks’ wages left,” he says. Now “we’re in a fantastic place, never better.” But he isn’t rushing to thank the government. He is still grappling with Brexit admin, rising interest rates, a world where men don’t want to drive HGVs, and a push to net zero that leaves him feeling alienated.

Brexit blues: Two-thirds of Dudley voted Leave, but not Donovan. It’s “caused a hell of a lot of problems,” he says. JJX sends Wolverhampton-made airplane wing parts to Airbus in Hamburg. He’s hired extra staff who deal with “14, 15 pieces of paper” for each shipment.

Driven away: Long-distance drivers are a “dying breed,” General Manager Mark Cleaton, 56, chimes in. JJX has 13 vans and 20 HGVs, but only three drivers are under 40. “They’re away all week … You can’t sleep because you’re always worried somebody’s going to get in the back of the trailer. Is someone going to steal my fuel?” He laments the closing of a loophole that had let more people use cheap “red diesel.” Road diesel is more valuable to nick.

GREEN SHOOTS: Over strong instant coffee in the meeting room — it has square canvases of trucks, toy HGVs and a “keep calm, drink coffee” coaster — Donovan chews over the net zero push that will make his business unrecognizable. Zero-emissions trucks “are getting better,” he says.

But but but … “We’ve just bought our first electric van, but it’s only good for 90 miles and it’s flat — eight hours to charge it back up,” says Donovan. His workers drive for 10 hours straight, followed by an 11-hour break. “It’s gonna make the drivers’ day a lot longer, isn’t it? The infrastructure is nowhere near — one of my drivers was in a scuffle Friday night at Beaconsfield services [for a charger].”

No truck with that: New HGVs under 26 tons must be zero-emission from 2035. But JJX isn’t buying any soon. “You’re losing a six-ton payload,” says Cleaton.” It’s got six tons where the batteries are, so your revenue’s down straight away. Plus they’re, what, 100 grand dearer than a normal truck?” Government officials stress their focus isn’t just on electric, it’s hydrogen too, and technology is advancing all the time.

Hidden costs: Last week the firm paid tax on two trucks. The HGV levy — suspended during COVID — returned on August 1, so each one cost £1,350 in levy and tax. And I’ve barely sat down before they complain about the capital. “There’s about £2,500 of equipment fitted to the truck just so we can go into London,” to protect cyclists and pedestrians, says Cleaton. 

Target missed: You might think Cleaton — who has never voted — is the ideal person to get fired up about Just Stop Oil. But he says measuredly: “I’m not saying what they’re doing is wrong, because if there’s a problem you need to fix it, don’t you? Otherwise it’s all gonna end. But you ain’t gonna do it in five minutes. You’ve got to put the infrastructure in first.”

SEAT RECAP: Home to an open-air market for nine centuries and the 428-million-year-old fossilized Dudley Bug. Rishi Sunak launched his campaign for May’s local elections — in which Dudley Tories bucked the trend, strengthening their hold on the council — at the Black Country Living Museum. Dudley South (with JJX) was Labour under Blair but now has a 15,565 Tory majority. Labour-then-independent MP Ian Austin clung to Dudley North (town center) until Tory Marco Longhi swept in by 11,533 votes in 2019. 

WILL IT SWITCH? The key, Brexiteer Longhi tells me, is to control immigration. “We’ve just started to turn that tanker, but probably too slowly for the next election,” he admits. (When pressed, he then insists he can keep his seat. The Labour vote is apathetic, he says, and Sunak is showing “some very good signs of promise.”)

An MP’s lot: Over the phone, Longhi tells me he’s “still waiting to see the government actually invest” in Dudley. “I’ve seen areas that have been granted millions through leveling up for pathways through forested areas. I’ve got a town that is very much on its knees.”

Message to Sunak: Longhi, who was a big Boris Johnson supporter, warns: “What I’m hearing on the doorstep is — ‘give us a reason to vote Conservative … We are absolutely not ready to vote Labour yet. But what we won’t do any more is vote Conservative if you just carry on promising things and not delivering.’”

JURY’S OUT: Back at JJX, Donovan tells me he’s always voted Tory, like his parents. He won’t vote Labour — “I don’t like that Keir … I reckon he’s just full of promises that don’t get delivered.” But he might not bother at all next year. 

Why not? “I’m sick to death of all the bollocks, to be honest with you Dan. What that Johnson done for us through COVID, it was amazing … but they went and let themselves down in other areas.” He’s not fussed by Partygate — “everybody done it” — but ticks off police, firefighters, nurses whose pay is “piss poor.” He even veers into a jibe at Matt Hancock. (Can that man get no rest?)

STRIKINGLY … Donovan lives a 25-minute drive from Dudley town center — but he hasn’t been there in two years. “Dudley’s got no money, and look at the state of the roads. Potholes f*cking everywhere,” he says.

Indeed: I treat myself to a trip to the Living Museum, a pristine, jolly Ye Olde recreation of a town that is basically a theme park. It’s a rather different image to the Market Place and its discount stores, hollowed out (locals tell me) by the big shopping center in Brierley Hill. One of the few brands there is Wilko, on the brink of collapse.

The future: Jasroop Singh, 20, has recently started selling perfume at Dudley Market. He’s upbeat, and the rates are cheap. But “it’s a bit too quiet,” he tells me. He makes more money flogging his wares on TikTok.

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BEYOND THE M25

YOUSAF’S CONFESSION: Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf has admitted he thought his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon had resigned because of the police investigation into the SNP’s finances. Speaking at a recording of Matt Forde’s podcast at the Edinburgh Fridge he said “we all had that thought” — the Herald has the story.

By-election stations: SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is heading to Cambuslang today to campaign ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, expected in October.

KHAN CASE: Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has been barred from holding public office for five years by the country’s electoral authorities three days after being sentenced to three years in prison for corruption — the BBC has a write-up.

RON’S GONE WRONG: Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis replaced his Campaign Manager Generra Peck in the third major reshuffling of his operations — my POLITICO colleagues have more.

CHINA DEFLATES: Chinese consumer prices slipped into deflation last month for the first time in more than two years. The Guardian has a write-up.

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MEDIA ROUND

Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick broadcast round: GB News (6.45 a.m.) … Times Radio (7 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … TalkTV (9.10 a.m.).

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper broadcast round: Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … Sky News (7.45 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).

Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper broadcast round: GMB (6.40 a.m.) … GB News (7.05 a.m.) … LBC News (7.40 a.m.) … Sky News (8.20 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: U.K. Director of More in Common Luke Tryl (7.05 a.m.) … Former Met Police Specialist Operations Commander Roy Ramm (8.20 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Labour MP Chris Bryant (8.30 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: RMT General-Secretary Mick Lynch (9.40 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Crossbench peer Norman Warner (7.20 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Bad cop politics — Why Britain wants to shout about its offshore asylum ship.

Daily Express: Britain strikes deal in war on people smugglers.

Daily Mail: Two data breaches that just defy belief.

Daily Mirror: In loving memory.

Daily Star: They didn’t see that coming!

Financial Times: Universal and Google in talks over licensing AI-made music.

i: Weight-loss jab can cut risk of heart problems.

Metro: Cyber raid on 50 million voters.

The Daily Telegraph: Pay freeze “loophole” doubles £100,000 mandarins.

The Guardian: Water companies face £800 million legal action over raw sewage allegations.

The Independent: Britain imposes toughest sanctions on Putin allies.

The Times: Weight-loss drug can cut heart attacks and strokes.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: A rare bright day. Sunny intervals and 24C highs.

SPOTTED: Acting PM Oliver Dowden hosted a No. 10 reception to mark 10 years since same-sex marriage. Former Prime Minister David Cameron gave “a warm and heartfelt” speech, according to one person in the room — which would make it the latest in a series. As Cameron apparently joked at a LGBT+ Conservatives event, “gay marriage has now had more birthdays than a senior member of the royal family.”

Scoop: Another attendee told Playbook that Cameron indicated support for allowing individual churches to opt to marry same-sex couples (which goes beyond what the Church of England has agreed to do.) According to the same mole, the former PM recounted a moment when he was heading out of Downing Street and one of the security guards told him: “Prime minister, I don’t normally talk about politics, but this week you did something that will mean I’ll be able to marry the person who I’ve loved for 20 years.”

Spotted at the reception were … No. 10’s Ameet Jogia … the Cabinet Office’s Lucy Noakes … Tory MP Mark Fletcher  … FTI Consulting’s Jack Powell and Timothy Gardiner, Institute of Economic Affairs’ Matthew Lesh … former SpAd Charlie Rowley … the News Media Association’s Owen Meredith … LGBT+ Conservatives’ Ben Hood … CCHQ’s Robbie Caprari-Sharpe … Borkowski PR’s James Andrews … Hogan Lovells’ Daniel Shapland … and Kirkland & Ellis’ Philipp Kurek.

LAST ORDERS: Today is the deadline to register to attend the Liberal Democrats’ Autumn Conference in Bournemouth. Details here.

HUGE CONGRATS: Tory MP Tracey Crouch climbed Mount Kilimanjaro as part of an all-female team in aid of Breast Cancer Kent. She wrote on Instagram that “there were moments on the journey that broke me physically and mentally but equally there were times when I laughed so hard I hurt and others where I stood still high above the clouds reflecting on the awesome beauty of my surroundings.”

Also congrats: The SNP’s Stewart McDonald went on his first outdoor run in a while, which made him think “we may have another by-election.” Don’t give up.

BLAST FROM THE PAST: This set of 1929 cigarette cards of notable MPs including Winston Churchill and David Lloyd George found by KCL’s Nigel Fletcher.

NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: Events at the Edinburgh Fringe today include LBC’s Iain Dale interviewing former Lib Dem leader Vince Cable at 1 p.m. … and Dale and former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith both interviewing activist and campaigner Peter Tatchell at 4 p.m.

On the radio: Labour peer Valerie Amos is the latest guest on Radio 4’s Reflections, speaking to James Naughtie about her political career from 9 a.m. … and Journalist Duncan Weldon’s Radio 4 program about the economic impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine is repeated at 11 a.m.

JOB AD: The House of Commons is hiring a publishing manager for Hansard.

ICYMI: Defra published a video of Larry the No. 10 cat to mark International Cat Day on Tuesday (and to remind cat owners that they need to microchip their pets).

BIRTHDAYS: Shadow Leveling-Up Secretary Lisa Nandy … Conservative MP Stephen McPartland … SNP President Michael Russell turns 70 … Sky News’ Chief Political Correspondent Jon Craig … British Deputy Head of Mission in Brazil Melanie Hopkins … Former Falkland Islands Chief Executive Barry Rowland … Former New Zealand PM John Key … BBC World Affairs Editor John Simpson.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Jack Lahart and Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producers Dato Parulava and Seb Starcevic.

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