UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for July 1 with Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 1	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Sean Strickland -170 vs Abus Magomedov +150
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -135 / Under +105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Our big play last week was on Taira, and that fight got cancelled so it ended up not being a very fun weekend. Hopefully, all the fights stays as scheduled so we can get back to cashing our big plays.

All official plays can be found here:

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Alexandr Romanov -140 v Blagoy Ivanov +115

Who knows what Alexandr Romanov will show up this week, and that pretty much will determine the outcome of the fight.

Romanov did a great job beating up bad competition, but he took a controversial loss against Marcin Tybura, and then showed up completely out of shape against Volkov and Volkov made quick work of him.

Romanov takes guys to the ground, and ground and pounds or submits, but if he doesn’t finish the fight early he has no cardio, and he’s a sitting duck. Ivanov has lost five fights as a pro, but three are in his last four fights and his best days are behind him.

He is just going to have to survive the first round by staying on the feet or if it goes to the ground, somehow avoid getting finished.

That’s going to be tough as he’s smaller than Romanov, but if he survives he can win rounds two and three. There’s no way I can bet on this fight as we’ll have to wait and see how Romanov looks at weighins.

Ivana Petrovic -225 v Luana Carolina +185

Petrovic will make her UFC debut, and you can expect her try and push Carolina against he fence, work the clinch to transition into takedowns where she will work for the rest of the round on the ground.

That’s her style, and if she has success at that strategy she’ll win. I’m not high on Carolina, I don’t think she has a great skill set, but she’ll try and keep this on the feet and win a striking battle. So who will be able to implement their strategy?

I think Petrovic will. Carolina has sloppy footwork, and a bad center of gravity that someone like Petrovic can take advantage of.

Carolina’s striking is better than Petrovic’s, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop Petrovic from coming forward and getting the takedowns. This fight could be pretty boring, but I like Petrovic to win.

Guram Kutateladze -550 v Elves Brenner +400

I don’t need to go into a lot of detail into this fight. Guram should have Brenner covered everywhere in this fight.

He beat Gamrot in his UFC debut, and then lost a split decision to Damir Ismagulov in a battle of two elite guys who have very similar styles. Brenner is a good fighter, but he’s just not as polished and as crisp as Guram.

He leaves himself open on the feet to strikes and takedowns, and Guram doesn’t need a big opening to pounce.

Brenner throws solid strikes, especially leg kicks, but Guram won’t let him land many of those with returning big counters or takedowns. Guram wins this, and I think it’s a pretty dominating performance coming off a loss.

Karol Rosa -165 v Yana Santos +135

Neither of these fighters are very impressive to me, and I don’t think I want to bet anything on an outright winner in this fight. I would definitely take this fight to go the distance or to start round 2 or 3 as I don’t see either of them finishing the other.

Santos has lost two in a row (and got finished and dominated in those two fights), and Rosa got beat up by Norma Dumont in her last fight, and barely beat Lina Lansberg in the fight before that.

I guess taking a flyer on Santos might be worth a look as I think her striking is a bit better, but the danger for Santos is that she got taken down easily against Holly Holm, and Rosa might try and go that route. I don’t have a great feel for this fight, except for the over.

Joanderson Brito v Westin Wilson

I don’t have lines for this right now, but Wilson is a last second replacement to face Brito, and Brito will run through him.

Wilson has fought nobody of any merit, and he likes getting takedowns and finishing on the ground, but he won’t get close to taking Brito down.

Brito can knock him out on the feet or take his back and submit him, but the only way to play this fight is to take the under or Brito ITD. Brito is an animal and won’t take this fight lightly, he’ll get a quick finish similar to his last two fights.

Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 v Kevin Lee +190

Kevin Lee might look a bit stronger than Rinat, but I like the path Rinat is on right now and I think he gets the win over Lee.

Lee is not very active as his last fight was in March of 2022 where he beat Diego Sanchez in Eagle FC, and before that he lost to Daniel Rodriguez in 2021, and I’m not sure how he can go from losing to Daniel Rodriguez and beating Diego Sanchez by decision to beating Rinat who has won 16 in a row.

Rinat made his UFC debut in spectacular fashion by dominating Bryan Battle, who I’m a fan of. He used striking and wrestling to win every round, and I think he’s a bit better than Kevin Lee everywhere.

I really don’t like the lack of activity from Kevin Lee, and if he’s a half step slow Rinat will have him on the ground in no time as he does a great job using his strikes to set up the takedown. The price is pretty fair here, but I think Rinat is a solid parlay piece.

Nurselton Ruziboiev -165 v Brunno Ferreira +140

Ferreira shocked the UFC world by flatlining Gregory Rodriguez in his UFC debut that he made on short notice. It showed his one shot knockout power, and in my opinion, as lethal as his one shot power is it’s about all he has.

He’s not well rounded, and he’s going to face a fighter who is well rounded, and he presents loads of problems. He’s 28 years old, and 34-8 in his pro career, and he’s 6’4” and incredibly he weighs 173 pounds.

He can take guys down, and loves submitting guys on the ground. He has very skinny legs so Ferreira would be wise to try and work leg kicks, but Ruziboiev does a great job and using jabs and kicks to keep the distance.

Ferreira is going to have to get inside of Ruziboiev to land his kill shot, and if he does he can certainly get the KO, but if Ruziboiev gets him on the ground, a submission will be likely.

The last seven fights of Nurselton have ended in the first round, and eight out of ten fights for Ferreira have ended in the first round so taking an under would be wise. As for who wins the fight? Slight lean to Ruziboiev, but with Ferreira’s power I wouldn’t rule out a win for The Hulk.

Ismail Bonfim -285 v Benoit Saint-Denis +240

I’m high on Bonfim, but not -285 high against Saint-Denis. Saint-Denis lost his UFC debut to Zaleski by decision, but responded by beating Niklas Stolze by getting takedowns and eventually getting the finish.

He then knocked out Gabriel Miranda, who probably isn’t UFC caliber so he’s done what he should do the last two fights, but Bonfim is a different animal.

Bonfim has really quick strikes, and he can wrestle and takedown if the opportunity presents itself, but Terrance McKinney was able to take him down last fight before Bonfim reversed.

This is a really close fight, but I give the striking advantage to Bonfim and the wrestling/grappling is a toss up. I lean Bonfim to win, but the odds stop me from betting this fight. (If you haven’t seen Bonfim’s knockout of Terrance McKinney, it’s incredible)

Melissa Gatto -165 v Ariane Lipski +140

Lipski is 2-3 in her last five fights, with all three losses coming by knockout. She beat Mandy Bohm (who is terrible) and JJ Aldrich in her last fight, and I thought her performance against Aldrich was an improvement, but I just don’t know what she does well.

She has no finishes in 11 UFC fights, and I doubt she gets one here so she’ll have to win by decision and to do that she’ll have to stay on the feet and out point Gatto while keeping a good distance between her and Gatto, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Gatto lost her last fight to Tracy Cortez as Cortez got takedowns and won on the ground, but Cortez is strong and good on the ground, and Lipski is nowhere near the strong or active in the wrestling game.

I see Gatto making this a dirty boxing fight that takes place on the ground or against the fence, and even though -165 might seem like a steep price, I think Gatto takes away Lipski’s space on the feet.

Michael Morales -200 v Max Griffin +170

Morales will try and keep this on the feet and look for his knockout shot, and he’ll certainly be faster than Max Griffin, but Griffin will try and make this a physical fight against the fence or on the ground.

In Morales’s last fight we saw Morales get taken down by Adam Fugitt in the first round, but Morales was able to get out of it, and stuffed Fugitt a couple more times as the fight went on and he’ll need to do that against Griffin.

Morales is a fantastic striker, and will absolutely land big shots on the feet, and we know his offense will be on point, but Griffin is no slouch in the striking department, and has fought way better competition.

This is a nice step up in competition for Morales, but I think this fight is going to show us the new up and comer being better than the aging veteran. Griffin is 37 years old, and his best years are behind him, and while he’ll be a good test for Morales I don’t think he can avoid the strikes all fight long.

Damir Ismagulov -145 v Grant Dawson +125

This is going to be an incredible fight as both guys can jump up a lot in the rankings with a win. Ismagulov is the favorite, but I like the underdog here.

Both guys like to wrestle, and get things on the mat, but I thought Tsarukyan exposed Damir a bit last fight as he was able to control Damir en route to victory.

Damir was coming off a razor close split decision win against Guram Kuteladze where Guram landed a ton of leg kicks doing a lot of damage, and there was a big time call by ref Herb Dean in the third when Guram hit a knee to the chest, but Dean ruled it a knee to the head and it could’ve changed the scorecards as Guram lost the last round 2-1 on the scorecards.

I think Damir has the advantage on the feet, but what I like about Dawson is how good his body triangle is on the ground, and how he just doesn’t let guys up once he gets it to the ground, and Damir losing to Tsarukyan was a red flag to me on how Arman was able to control him.

Dawson also turned down a fight against Arman Tsarukyan, but accepted this fight so I think he sees that he might have the advantage on the ground.

Dawson hasn’t fought anyone with the skillset of Damir, but he gave Mark Madsen (decorated wrestler) his first loss in the UFC by dominating the wrestler and getting the submission finish. I like Dawson to pull the upset.

UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction

Sean Strickland -170 v Abus Magomedov

After numerous cancelled fights to make his UFC debut, he finally had a fight last October and he made quick work of Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds.

It’s hard to take much away from that performance, but he’s the real deal and the fact that his next fight is against Sean Strickland says a lot about what the UFC thinks of him.

His only loss since 2015 was to Louis Taylor five years ago, who was an incredible fighter, and he retired after that fight. It was a flash KO 30 seconds into the fight, but other than that Magomedov has run through most opponents, but Sadibou Sy and Gasan Umaltov took him to decision in the PFL, and that has to be the plan for Strickland.

Strickland will want to make this a boxing match for five rounds and if it does go the distance, Strickland will probably wear Abus down and piece him up on the feet.

Strickland will have to deal with the long legged kicks of Magmedov, but he just won in convincing fashion against Nassourdine Imavov in January and he just knows how to win these standup battles that go deep into the fight.

He lost to Cannonier by a really close split decision, but he’s beaten Imavov, Hermansson, Jotko and he destroyed Uriah Hall over five rounds. If Magomedov is going to win, he’s going to have to do what Alex Pereira did and that’s blitz and get the KO early.

Can he do that? Yes. Is it likely? No. Pereira is a different beast, and I think Strickland survives the early strikes and wears him down en route to another boxing clinic.

UFC Fight Night Video/Audio Preview by Andy Lang!

Join Andy Lang and Nathan Boyer as they run through the entire UFC Fight Night card for this Saturday giving their betting predictions and picks around each fight! How do they see the main event of Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov playing out? Listen now!

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