The Miami Heat just keep doing this. Three straight series they’ve come in as NBA odds underdogs, and in three straight series now, they’ve snatched Game 1 on the road from the supposedly superior opponent before they knew what hit them. 

It was a collective masterclass by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and all the Heat role players that now has the Boston Celtics on their heels early in the series. Game 2 on Friday, May 19 quickly becomes a must-win for Boston, who will be hoping not only to win, but to do so convincingly to regain control of the series they were so heavily favored to win.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 2 of Heat vs. Celtics believe Jaylen Brown’s shaky handle could continue to cost him dearly against Miami’s ball pressure.

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 best odds

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 picks and predictions

Jaylen Brown is a bonafide All-NBA talent. Outside of passing, there’s little he can’t do at an All-Star level on a basketball court. He’s an incredible driver, shooter, defender, and finisher — he checks just about every box of the prototypical big NBA wing.

Except for one crucial blemish: Brown has a notoriously poor handle for a player of his caliber. That looseness with the ball, combined with his lack of passing acumen, does put a rather firm limit on his ceiling and is why he’s so perfectly suited as the second-best player on an NBA team rather than the top dog.

Even then, his weak handle isn’t too much of a problem in the regular season. He still scored 117.3 points per possession this season, 67th percentile among all wings per Cleaning the Glass, despite the turnovers. 

But it’s a more pronounced problem in the playoffs. His turnover rate, already 11.9% in the regular season (36th percentile for his position) consistently rises in the postseason. Last playoffs, it jumped all the way 13.7%, which put Brown in the bottom 15th percentile of all wings, a true black eye on an otherwise dominant playoff run.

But this year it’s all the way up to an alarming 15.1% and, after conceding a back-breaking six turnovers in Game 1 against the Miami Heat, it’s only rising. 

While Brown has a size mismatch against most of the Heat players who are regularly guarding him, he’s still routinely wilted against their ball pressure. In the seven-game series against the Heat in last year’s Conference Finals, Brown averaged 3.3 turnovers per game and had four or more in four of the seven games (including a high of seven turnovers in Game 3). 

The Heat do an incredible job of bothering Brown on drives, stunting towards him, and getting a hand in without fouling. Having Bam Adebayo on the backline, one of the most mobile big men in the NBA, allows the Heat to play aggressively, knowing that Bam can cover a lot of ground to cover for them.

Brown is also dealing with a significant hand injury that he suffered just before the playoffs began. He cut his hand on a broken glass vase (or so he claims) and required five stitches. That wound has clearly not been able to heal during the crucible of playoff basketball, as it opened up and was gushing blood in Game 1. It got to the point where the athletic trainers were having difficulty getting it to stop long enough to get Brown back into the game.

Brown is a supreme talent, but one with a more glaring Achilles heel than most, and the Heat are some of the best at hitting an opponent at their weakest point. I’m expecting Brown to continue to cough it up during Game 2.  

My best bet: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 turnovers (-160)  

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 same-game parlay

This parlay is born out of a few crucial things learned from watching Game 1. First and foremost, Jimmy Butler looks more like the Milwaukee Bucks series version of himself than the New York Knicks series version. A full four days of rest seems to have allowed Jimmy’s ankle to fully heal, and he looked like an unstoppable offensive force on his way to 35 points on 25 shots. 

Second was the failure of Boston’s two-big lineup of Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Bam abused Williams in space and playing two bigs allowed Miami to play Kevin Love without serious penalty, which helped the Heat’s spacing and transition attack. Joe Mazzulla has made no secret of the fact that he favors smaller lineups, so with the results of Game 1 in hand I’m guessing we’ll see fewer minutes of Williams and Horford together which means more minutes (and thus shots) for Derrick White in Game 2.

Lastly, when the favorite loses Game 1 at home, they have now gone on to win Game 2 in 17 straight. The average margin of victory in those Game 2s is also well into double digits. That includes both Game 2s Miami lost to the Bucks and Knicks before ultimately winning the series. I’m too impressed by this Heat team to take the Celtics at -9, instead, I’ll settle for taking the Boston moneyline and using it to juice the overall value of this play.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 spread and Over/Under analysis

There has been significant movement and variation in the spread for Game 2. The Heat opened between 4.5 and as much as 9.5-point dogs, which rose as high as 11.5 points before settling in at between 9 and 9.5 at most books. It’s a massive line, and one well warranted by trends, if not the results of Game 1.

While historic trends strongly favor a bounce-back performance from the Celtics it’s certainly not a given. All the reasons to doubt Boston and back Miami were on full display in Game 1, including the Heat making all the effort plays, Bam dominating against Williams, and the coaching advantage being firmly in favor of the Heat. Still, the Celtics are a robust 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss.

Following a high-scoring Game 1, the total for Friday’s game opened at 214.5 and has moved to 215.5. That’s a 4-point bump from where the total landed for Game 1, which was 27.5 points shy of the actual final total. That huge total was largely a product of the Heat’s incredible 3-point shooting. They went 16-31 from behind the arc, outscoring the Celtics by 18 points from the 3-point line.

Miami getting up as many threes as it did and limiting Boston to just 10 is the real story. The Heat might not get that hot from behind the arc again, but if they can keep Boston from getting to their own preferred attack, they can make what should be a Game 2 blowout uncomfortably close for the Celtics and also push this towards the Under.

If there’s a reason to think the Heat offense is not sustainable at this level other than the simple fact that they shot 51.6% from deep, it’s the way they generated their shots. The Heat did a lot of isolation and self-creation, particularly in their 46-point third quarter that ultimately decided the game. They ended up with just 20 assists to 46 made shots — that’s impressive work for a team not exactly overloaded with shot creation outside of Butler.

The Celtics can also lock in a lot more than they did in Game 1. They committed all kinds of obvious errors, including just leaving shooters open on the strong side one pass away on multiple occasions. The Over has cashed in nine of Miami’s last 10 games, and 20 of their last 27 overall, and I’d lean that way again tonight.

Heat vs Celtics betting trend to know

Over is 20-7 in Heat’s last 27 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 game info

Heat vs Celtics Game 2 key injuries

Pages related to this topic