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By JOHN JOHNSTON

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SNEAK PEEK

— Influence looks at what the CBI’s rolling implosion means for businesses hoping to get a hearing in SW1 — and asks what might come next.

— All the goss from Rishi Sunak’s Business Connect conference.

— Bosses expect a Labour government, new polling shows — and they’re surprisingly chill about it.

LOBBYING WESTMINSTER

IT’S REALLY BAD: Look, it’s a simple analysis, but there is really no other way to describe what’s happening at the CBI. As Britain’s biggest Business lobby group reels from serious allegations of misconduct and abuse, Influence spoke to former members and industry experts about what on earth comes next.

Reminder: In an open letter in the wake of further damning Guardian reporting, CBI President Brian McBride admitted the group’s future is hanging in the balance, saying senior management had been “complacent” and that while they hoped they could rebuild trust, he conceded: “Whether that is possible, I simply don’t know.”

Newly appointed: Director general Rain Newton-Smith also commented after taking over the job on Wednesday, and in a series of tweets she praised the courage of the women who had come forward and said she was “profoundly sorry” for letting them down.

She added: “We know there is so much to do to win back the trust of our members, our colleagues and wider society. But I believe in the work of the CBI & our people, and I am determined to rebuild and reimagine our organisation to be regain that trust.”

Dam Broken: The comments — and interim internal review — came after the steady stream of members either suspending or withdrawing their membership turned into a flood over the last week. Major industry players including John Lewis, Vodafone and Natwest have all joined the exodus.

Life support: An insider at one firm which withdrew its membership as the scandal picked up pace told Influence it was “crystal clear” from even the initial reports that the group was now “fighting for its life.”

They added: “Those reports made it obvious that this goes beyond any single individual, and that the CBI has deep-seated cultural and governance problems.”

Risky business: “We felt very early on that there was a reputational risk for us if we continued our membership, but we also believed we had a moral obligation to distance ourselves,” the same person said.

Fact of life: Despite a major CBI dust-up with ministers at the height of Britain’s Brexit battles, the business insider said membership remained a “fact of life” for many firms. But they said most members now need to have “serious discussions” about their continued relationship with the lobby giant.

No answers: “The big question that we asked ourselves was: ‘How do they recover from this? What does the CBI look like in 12 months’ time?’ We couldn’t answer that, so at that point the writing was on the wall.”

On ice: Influence understands that some members, such as Shell, are waiting for the outcome of the internal investigation before making a final decision about the future of their CBI membership. Shell paused its engagement with the group before the CBI announced its own freeze on political engagement and events while it deals with the crisis.

Ouch: The government and opposition have already iced engagement with the group. But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt put the boot in further on Monday, saying: “There’s no point engaging with the CBI when their own members have deserted them in droves.”

Hunt added: “We would like to be able to engage with business through a representative body when we can, but we’re not stopping. We’re perfectly capable of engaging business without those [bodies]. And that’s what we’ll continue to do.”

SPEAKING OF WHICH: Public affairs firm, WPI Strategy, spies an opening. It’s launching BizUK, a new project to promote business interests in the run-up to the next election — but insists it’s not trying to park tanks on the CBI lawn.

Out the traps: Speaking to Influence, WPI director Nick Faith (ex of Policy Exchange) said news of the group had leaked slightly earlier than planned, but he hopes to get around 50-60 firms signed up ahead of a late summer launch.

Groundwork: Faith says WPI already sought buy-in from key decision makers in Whitehall and Westminster before approaching prospective firms who might wish to join, and reckons there’s appetite out there.

Face-to-face: “The first thing we did before we set this up was have some conversations with figures within government and the Labour Party,” he tells us. “We set out what we were thinking of doing and asked them whether this was an initiative they’d want to engage on, to which the answer was very clearly yes.”

He added: “We wouldn’t be embarking on this venture unless we’d had those encouraging noises that emanated from both the main political parties.”

But but but: Faith is quick to bat away suggestions the new group is seeking to replace the CBI.

Laser focus: “We are being really specific. We are not taking broad views of taxation, we are not taking broad views on regulation or the U.K. relationship with the EU,” he said. “That is more what a big body like the CBI do, that is not in any way what we are focussed on.” Instead, BizUK is planning to focus on four key areas on which he believes the group can have impact as party manifestos are being drawn up.

Hammering the point home: The WPI director also praises the work of other trade groups, pointing to start-up lobby COADEC’s work around the Silicon Valley Bank, the FSB’s work with small businesses and the regional hubs run by the British Chambers of Commerce.

Not our bag: “Anyone who thinks we have the capability, the resource or will to want to replicate the CBI are very much mistaken,” Faith added. “What happens to them we will wait and see, but there are other business groups that do a very good job, and we want to work for them. We are not trying to make a play in that space, we wouldn’t want to.”

Time-limited: The group will, he says, shut up shop after 12 months — as Faith can’t see the need to extend its work beyond the current electoral cycle.

Speed freaks: “We need to act at speed… we feel our size will give us the ability to be agile in a way the CBI has struggled with, if I am being brutally honest. It’s a very different model. The question on whether it has legs beyond an electoral cycle, well that is very much not the intention.”

QUICK HITS

BUSINESS CONNECT: Rishi Sunak’s flagship business conference got underway on Monday, with the PM, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch all trying to shore up relationships with industry.

Heal the rift: Sunak used the event to try and repair the damage done by Boris Johnson’s “f**k business” comments and Liz Truss’s … well everything. But an upbeat PM told the 200 senior execs he’d “got their back” and that his party was “unashamedly pro-business.”

You heard it here first: Influence’s reporting last week on the poor organization of the conference seemed to be borne out on Monday after complaints some invites had only been sent out on Friday — hardly the best move when attempting to attract time-strapped CEOs from major firms.

And: Journalists also struggled to get access, with several major outlets either not getting invited until the last minute, not receiving invitations at all, or being told that only business correspondents were allowed to attend.

Not that that stopped: Reporting on the awkward exchange between Sunak and Burberry chair Gerry Murphy, who first praised the PM for engaging with business — before going in studs up about the “spectacular own goal” of removing VAT refunds in 2020.

A brow-beaten Sunak: Refused to engage directly with the point but said he’d “take away” the comments.

KYIV CALM AND CARRY ON: Public affairs firm Rud Pedersen opened their 15th office — in the Ukrainian capital.

The new office: Has opened in Independence Square and will be headed up by Myron Wasylyk, making it one of the first European public affairs groups to operate in Ukraine.

In a statement: The agency said it was already seeing plenty of interest from businesses wanting to invest in the country as it begins rebuilding efforts.

LONDON CALLING: Big tech lobbying group, the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA), are making a move to open a U.K. operation having already built up an impressive client list, including Intel, Apple and Google.

On the hunt: The firm, which is already well-established in the U.S. and EU, have put out a job ad for a senior director to lead the U.K. expansion plan.

OK computer: “The U.K. is an internationally recognised leader in innovation,” the group told POLITICO’s trade team. “It is therefore natural that the Computer & Communications Industry Association … wants to be more present in the U.K.”

TALKING SHOP

A NEW DAWN HAS BROKEN: Some striking new polling of directors and senior managers finds a majority of business bosses not only expect Labour to form the next government — but are pretty optimistic about the prospect too.

The polling, carried out for Lodestone Communications, puts some meat on the bones of widely-discussed efforts by Labour to be seen as the new natural party of business.

Top lines: It finds that nearly two-thirds of firms were optimistic to some extent about a Labour government. While tech firms were the least jubilant about the prospect, there were still 58 percent of the sector who reported optimism over a potential Labour take-over.

Regulate this: Another wee gem from the data is that all of this pro-Labour sentiment comes despite a widespread sense a Starmer government is more likely to be interventionist on environmental, social and governance requirements — as well as so-called “woke” policy on workplace diversity.

Look away, Rishi: Speaking to Influence, Lodestone director Martha Dalton said one of the biggest shocks was Starmer’s near 10-point lead over Sunak when it comes to who is considered in touch with the needs of business.

Shocking: “I think it’s a very surprising finding, considering that Rishi is a businessman, and a very successful one at that,” Dalton said. “His wife is a prolific investor. I think it’s pretty shocking as a result.”

Hard graft: “I think that Keir has done well to talk about wanting to partner with business. And that’s been a really consistent message that him and Rachel [Reeves] have been putting out there,” she added.

Pressing the flesh: One stat that will leave Labour strategists crying into their soy lattes is on perceived low levels of engagement between the party and firms. A majority (52 percent) of large companies — those with more than 1,001 employees — reported only having limited engagement with the opposition.

It goes both ways: Dalton was keen to highlight that engagement is a two-way street and that after more than a decade of Tory government, many firms are out of practice when it comes to talking to Labour.

Arm bending: “We are trying to persuade our client that they need to take Labour seriously and that they need to start thinking about how they can get involved in policymaking before it’s too late and the manifesto is written,” she said.

Out of the game: “They’re used to dealing with the government, but they haven’t had to think about opposition from policy perspective seriously for a while, so I think for some of them they’re probably just a bit out of practice,” she said.

Carpe Diem: Dalton quipped that not everyone is as “boring and geeky” as her when it comes to Labour policymaking (Influence can sympathize). But she reckons it’s time to “seize the moment” when it comes to tapping up the opposition.

Date in the diary: “If they haven’t talked to them before conference then they’re going to find it harder to get their message across,” she warned businesses.

ON THE MOVE

James Martin started as managing director and head of U.K. government affairs at Managed Funds Association.

Thea Stein has been appointed as chief executive at the Nuffield Trust think tank, taking over the role from Nigel Edwards later this year.

Cameron Wall is taking up a new role as an account director at WA Comms.

Cabinet Office Director of National Security Communications Mikey Hoare, who has been leading on comms relating to the Ukraine war, has joined global comms firm Kekst CNC as a director in London.

Daniel Gilbert steps into a new role as group managing director, advocacy, overseeing group public affairs at Hanover — with Joe Derry-Malone promoted to deputy managing director.

Promotion for Maria Julia Pieraccioni who is now a senior account executive at Edelman.

John Bethell started a new gig as public affairs manager at Abrdn.

After a three-year stint as a digital comms adviser to cabinet ministers and top Tories, Laura Emily Dunn is taking up a role as a consultant at Montfort Communications.

Also on the move: The Institute for Public Policy Research left their Buckingham Street address after more than a decade in favor of a swanky new pad at 8 Storey’s Gate.

Jobs, jobs, jobs: Best for Britain are looking for an executive director of communications and campaigns … and a content executive for social media … Cancer Research UK needs a senior external affairs manager for devolved nations … the Local Government Association wants a policy adviser … Sainsbury’s are seeking a senior government relations manager … And National Gas have several gigs going … including head of external affairs … public affairs manager … and a media and digital officer.

Thanks: To editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster for sending the typos packing. And to the production team for piloting this safely into your inboxes.

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