• FTSE 100 well above early low of 7,875.03
• Wall Street to start mixed on rate worries
• ITV lower as profits falls, warns on ad revenue

2.25pm: Dashboard hopes dashed

interactive investor, the UK’s second largest platform for private investors, said it is “disappointed” by news of the delayed connections deadline for the UK pensions dashboard project.

This set-back will leave many pension savers in the dark, relying on confusing pension year-end statements and online searches about their state pension, it noted

Alice Guy, personal finance editor for interactive investor, commented: “It’s disappointing but not wholly surprisingly that the deadline for pensions dashboards has been pushed back. This is a highly technical project, requiring new IT systems and digital architecture to allow pension providers to share pensions information safely and accurately.

“This moving of the goalposts is frustrating for pensions providers as regulated firms need to meet mandated deadlines every year and deliver on time, it’s not possible for them to change the rules to give them more breathing space.

“Although the delay is disappointing, it’s important that the practicalities of the pensions dashboards project are worked through to make sure the new system is a success. We look forward to receiving more information on the new timetable in due course and will work constructively with the government to deliver this project effectively to our customers.”

2.10pm: US jobs in focus

With the always crucial US non-farm payrolls report due for release tomorrow, the latest weekly jobless claims from across the Atlantic have provided another snaphot of the labour Market.

US initial jobless claims for last week dipped to 190,000 from 192,000 the previous week, a bit below the consensus forecast of 195,000.

Economists at Pantheon Macro commented: “Claims remain very low and range-bound, though they appear to have bottomed and we see a decent chance of a clear increase next week, thanks to the severe weather across the upper Midwest and California.  More broadly, we expect to see claims rising sharply in the spring, lagging the surge in layoff announcements captured by the Challenger survey.

“The lag arises because firms tend to announce layoffs all at once but then implement the cuts over a few months, and also because people receiving severance pay in some states – notably California – cannot make an unemployment insurance claim. The likely future direction of travel for claims is clear.”

Wall Street futures continue to point to a mixed open, with those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2% in pre-market trading, while contracts for the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.6% and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.0%.

In London, the Ftse 100 index stayed just below opening levels, off 2 points at 7,912, just off the session high of 7,916.21.

1.30pm: London’s movers

A quick glance at the movers in London today.

Risers

National Express- up 14% to 141p

Shares drove higher on Thursday after the bus and rail operator reported better-than-expected full-year Revenue and restored the dividend.

The FTSE 250-listed firm said group revenue rose 29% in the 12 months to 31 December 2022 to £2.81bn, ahead of City forecasts of £2.77bn, while underlying pre-tax profit soared to £145.9mln from £39.7mln.

Capita- up 17% to 34.1p

Capita saw its shares jump after the outsourcing group reported a return to adjusted profit in 2022 and lauded its contract wins and order book.

The FTSE All Share-listed firm posted an adjusted pretax profit of £73.8mln for the year ended 31 December 2022 compared with a loss of £122.8mln a year earlier, while adjusted revenue was £2.846bn compared with £2.78bn in 2021.

CRH- up 7% to 4,230p

Shares rose as the building materials firm announced plans to move its primary listing to the US.

Alongside a strong set of annual results, the Dublin-based building materials firm said: “We have now come to the conclusion that a US primary listing would bring increased commercial, operational and acquisition opportunities for CRH.”

Fallers

Totally- down 30% to 20p

Shares in the healthcare and fitness provider slumped on the back of a profit warning.

High inflation, national strikes and workforce shortages have increased the reliance on agency staff.

As a result, it now expects underlying profits (EBITDA) for the year ending 31 March 2023 to be £6.3mln, which is below current market expectations.

1.00pm: Dow Jones futures rise in pre-market trade, but broader S&P set seen lower

While FTSE 100 struggles to recoup early-morning losses, Wall Street is expected to open mixed after kicking off March with a rough start yesterday. 

Latest ISM data did little to quell concerns that the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) may resume more aggressive interest rate hikes when it meets later this month to return inflation to targeted levels.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% in Thursday pre-market trading, while those for the broader S&P 500 index shed 0.4% and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 sank half a percent.

The Dow ended almost unchanged on Wednesday at 32,667, but the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% to 11,379 and the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 3,951, its lowest level in over a month.

While the ISM manufacturing print for February remained in contractionary territory at 47.7, the Prices Paid sub-component expanded to 51.3, above the 46.5 the market expected.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic said more aggressive interest rate hikes may be necessary to slow inflation, with Bostic adding that the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% and “leave it there well into 2024.”

“ISM data left Wall Street closing on a whimper, markets are increasingly pricing a higher terminal rate for the US rate cycle, compounded by hawkish rhetoric from Fed members Bostic and Kashkari, both of whom remarked that a 5% plus terminal rate is required to quash inflation,” commented TickMill Group market analyst Patrick Munnelly. 

Munnelly added: “Kashkari specifically stated that services inflation was a primary concern and required real attention, as such the US 10-year yield tipped 4%, with markets pricing a further 75bp rise by the FOMC this year.”

On the companies front, Salesforce’s shares surged in after-hours trading following quarterly results that beat expectations, noted Neil Wilson, chief markets analyst at Markets.com.

“The company also expanded its share buyback programme and delivered a forecast that was better than most had hoped for,” Wilson added. “Shares rose 16% in the after-hours market after it posted adjusted earnings of $1.68 per share versus $1.36 expected.”

Companies reporting quarterly results today include Costco, AB InBev, Merck, Kroger, Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard.

12.44pm: Index-linked gilts oversubscribed 2.4 times

The UK government has sold £650mln worth of index-linked long-dated gilts following an auction that was 2.4-times oversubscribed.

The bonds will pay an interest rate of 0.125% on top of inflation. The popularity of inflation-adjusted bonds suggests bond buyers have persistent concerns over long-term inflation.

Though this conflicts with this morning’s Bank of England survey of chief financial officers showing that price pressures are possibly easing (see below).

No one got bonds if they bid below the striking price of £82.28.

Overall, the government received bids totalling £1.56bn for the £650mln worth of bonds available.

Some buyers will also be able to buy an additional £162.5mln worth of bonds at the same price as the auction through a non-competitive allotment.

12.26pm: CRH rally pushes Footsie higher

The FTSE 100 Index regained the 7,905 level following this morning’s dip below 7,880, thanks in part to Dublin-based building giant CRH PLC (LSE:CRH)’s 10% surge.

Alongside a set of impressive results, CRH this morning announced its intention to move its primary listing to the US, stating: “We have now come to the conclusion that a US primary listing would bring increased commercial, operational and acquisition opportunities for CRH.”

North America represents 75% of group EBITDA, the company said, and the US is expected to be a key driver of future growth.

CRH said the move would deliver higher profit, returns and cash for shareholders.

As for today’s earnings, revenue increased to US$32.72bn (£27.3bn) in 2022 from US$29.21bn a year before, as pre-tax profit leapt to US$3.47bn from US$3.10bn.

The total dividend was raised by 5% to US$1.27 per share from US$1.21, and the company announced it will increase its share buyback to up to US$3bn in the next 12 months.

Engineering group Melrose Industries PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF), chemicals group Croda International PLC (LSE:CRDA) and energy company Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA) are also leading the blue chips.

Haleon PLC (LSE:HLN, NYSE:HLN) and Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR) are among the worst performers following their mixed-bag earnings calls.

Capita PLC (LSE:CPI) is leading the All Share Index with a 13% rally following a return to adjusted profit.

12.01pm: Bank of England survey suggests price pressures are easing

Judging by the Bank of England‘s latest Decision Maker Panel survey, which gathers insights from financial officers across the UK, price pressures appear to be easing. 

Results of the survey suggests that companies now predict price growth to average 5.4% over the next year, down from a peak of 6.7% during the summer. The survey also shows similar trends in anticipated unit cost growth and CPI expectations.

Source: ING

An anticipated slowdown in price growth could lessen the grip of central bank hawks on monetary policy, though BoE governor Andrew Bailey remains elusive on his outlook.

“If we do too little with interest rates now, we will only have to do more later on. The experience of the 1970s taught us that important lesson,” he said in a speech yesterday, though he stopped short of giving a concrete nod to further hikes.

James Smith at ING commented on the survey: “While this data alone is unlikely to stop a 25bp rate hike in March, if these trends continue through the spring, it suggests that this will mark the end of the current tightening cycle.”

11.33am: European inflation comes in hot, DAX underperforming against FTSE 100

Year-on-year consumer price inflation in Europe came in 40 basis points hotter than expected, today’s preliminary results show.

While the lowest read since May 2022, the data suggests that inflationary pressure remains high in Europe, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will remain hawkish for longer.

Energy inflation slowed to 13.7% from 18.9% due to the warmer winter, but prices rose at a faster pace for food, non-energy industrial goods, and services.

Amongst the Eurozone’s largest economies, inflation accelerated in Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands, while in Italy, it slowed.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

EUR/GBP has stayed flat today, though yesterday’s one percent rally brought the pair to a 10-day high of 88.7p.

European markets did see a leg up after the read, with DAX adding around 90 points, though is still underperforming against the footsie.

Responding to the read, Capital Economics analysts said: “February’s increase in core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that significant rate increases are needed.

“For some time we have been forecasting a 50bp hike at the meeting in two weeks’ time and another 50bp by June. But it now looks increasingly likely that rates will rise even further.”

11.08am: Foostie heads above 7,900p, Flutter falters following mixed earnings

Why is Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR) at the bottom of the FTSE 100 pile today?

The global sports betting giant’s overall revenues rose by 27% to £7.69bn as US segment FanDuel delivered an “exceptional performance”, in the company’s words.

Yet shares have tumbled 3.5% to 13,015p from yesterday’s close. Analysts at UBS called the performance “mixed”, with revenues 1% ahead of expectations but adjusted EBITDA coming in 3% lower than consensus.

Weaker Australian earnings offset strong US gains, noted UBS. Net debt of £4.6bn also can’t be ignored.

Elsewhere, rumours of Aussie financial services group Macquarie lining up a takeover bid for M&G plc have failed to trigger a rally in M&G’s share price, suggesting that “the market is sceptical about a deal emerging, or that a bid premium won’t be generous”, observed Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Footsie has made some intraday gains, jumping above 7,900p as of 11.00am.

10.25am: Haleon shares dive after first annual results

GSK spinoff Haleon met market expectations in its first full-year results this morning.

Revenue rose 14% to £10.86bn, of which organic growth was 9%, with 4.3% from price increases and 4.7% from volume and product mix.

Jefferies analysts noted that the fourth quarter is ahead on like-for-like terms, though full-year margins and earnings per share (EPS) fell behind.

Haleon’s margin, financing and tax guidance are “likely to inspire mid-single-digit EPS consensus downgrades”, said Jefferies.

Investors will benefit from a proposed 2.4p dividend, the first in the company’s lifetime, representing roughly 30% of adjusted earnings for the period since listing, with the board saying it intends to maintain the pay-out ratio around that level.

Haleon chief executive Brian McNamara said free cash flow of £1.6bn in the calendar year enabled the first dividend as the company was able to reduce net debt to £9.9bn from £10.7bn at the time of the demerger and “provides increased confidence in reducing debt faster than originally expected”.

Haleon shares fell over 4% to 312.53p post results, making it the second-biggest faller in the FTSE 100 after Beazley PLC (LSE:BEZ).

9.55am: News headlines

Here is a quick recap of some of the news making the headlines this morning.

ITV reported a slip in 2022 profits and warned total advertising revenue will continue to suffer because of the “macroeconomic environment.” Total group revenue grew 7% to £7.3bn for the year ended 31 December.  

GSK’s spinoff Haleon declared an inaugural dividend as price increases and efficiencies enabled increased profits and cash flow. The first dividend has been proposed at 2.4p per share.

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey reported signs of improved trading but still warned completions would be around 40% lower than in 2022. Annual results did, however, show a 22% uptick in annual profits to £827mlm.

Among the small caps, Metal Tiger said it is cancelling its AIM listing. The natural resources investor said this is due to a need for greater flexibility to manage its portfolio and implement a new investing policy.

9.00am FTSE 100 snapshot

The FTSE 100 Index has kicked off Thursday in muted fashion, dropping around 10 basis points to 7,911p.

Catalysts on the economic calendar are few and far between, barring a speech from the Bank of England’s Huw Pill later this afternoon.

There appears to be some momentum in the housebuilding sector. 

Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) added half a percent following its mixed bag of an annual earnings call. The housebuilder said revenue rose 3.2% to £4.42bn while pre-tax profit of £827.9mln was up 22% from the previous year.

Taylor Wimpey did, however, warn that completions in 2023 would be around 40% lower that in 2022.

Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV) saw a bit of a rebound after closing sharply lower yesterday, adding 0.3% this morning.

Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) is not so lucky, diving another 2% following yesterday’s rout.

Manufacturing group Melrose Industries PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF) is leading the FTSE 100 index with a 2% share price surge following its 2022 full-year results. Statutory losses per share halved against 2021 losses while an interim dividend of 1.5p (a 50% increase year on year) was announced.

Flutter Entertainment is also pulling ahead after this morning’s revenue beat, although it has a while to go before recouping overnight losses.

On the junior market, Poolbeg Pharma added surged ahead after hailing its lead asset as a potential “blockbuster”. Investors seemed to agree, pushing Poolbeg’s share price 15% higher.

On the downside, Orosur Mining Inc (AIM:OMI, TSX-V:OMI), GetBusy PLC (AIM:GETB) and Star Phoenix Group Ltd have all chalked up close to 10% in share price losses.

8.11am: ITV seen lower post-earnings

ITV’s content-producing arm ITV Studios counterbalanced a fall in total advertising revenues (TAR) for the FTSE 250-listed broadcaster.

Total ITV Studios revenues were up 19% at over £2bn, while media and entertainment revenues were down 1% at £2.2bn driven by a 1% decline in TAR.

Adjusted group EBITA was down 12% at £717mln while adjusted earnings per share was 13.2p.

“The outlook for ads remains tough and sales will continue to fall going forward, while ITV Studios will also see revenue growth slow, potentially to around 5% in 2023 from the 15% seen last year, and see margins come in at the lower end of its target thanks to inflationary pressures,” said Joshua Warner, market analyst at City Index.

ITV also launched its ad-funded ITVX stream platform in December, attracting 1.5 million registrations in just two months.

“However, it is worth remembering that ITV’s streaming services are battling against some of the biggest names in media, including Netflix and Disney, and it will need to spend big on content to compete – with operating profit already under pressure thanks to increased investment,” said Warner.

The board proposed a final dividend of 3.3p, giving a full year dividend of 5p.

ITV shares were seen 2.3% lower following the earnings call.

7.48am: Tesla shares sink, US treasury yields hit four-month top

Across the pond, Tesla’s shares sank 5.6% after the bell, erasing around US$36bn and dragging Nasdaq futures down 0.5% in the Asian trading hours.

Not the best response to Elon Musk’s three-hour live stream, which reiterated Tesla’s goal of increasing deliveries 15 fold to 20 million vehicles by 2030 while halving production costs.

Perhaps investors were disappointed with no mention of a much-awaited affordable electric vehicle. No sign of a share buyback either.

At least the Cybertruck is coming by the end of this year.

The S&P 500 index closed around half a percent lower.

US 10-year Treasury yields tallied up a four-month top of 4.018%, while two-year yields reached their highest levels since 2007.

7.28am: Gilt yields remain at four-month highs

UK 10-year gilts improved slightly yesterday, albeit yields remain at their highest levels since the Kwarteng-Truss cataclysm four months ago.

Governor Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England cut a pretty gloomy tone in his speech at the Cost of Living Conference, citing “no easy way out” from the “external shocks” that have hit the economy.

Mortgage rates, he pointed out, are materially higher than they were a year ago, even if they’re come down slightly, while food prices remain inflated.

Source: Bank of England

“If we do too little with interest rates now, we will only have to do more later on. The experience of the 1970s taught us that important lesson,” said Bailey, though he stopped short of giving a concrete nod to further hikes.

UK 30-year gilt yields are sitting at 4.178%, also the highest in four months.

7.00am: FTSE to open lower

FTSE 100 is expected to open slightly lower on Thursday after a mixed showing in the US and ahead of the release of a bumper crop of results in London.

Spread betting companies are calling London’s lead index down by around 13 points.

US markets ended mixed with two weak manufacturing surveys weighing on stocks. At the close, the Dow Jones was flat at 32,662 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% at 3,951 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% to reach 11,379.

Back in London and the early focus will be provided by a hefty batch of results with announcements expected from Beazley PLC (LSE:BEZ), Capita PLC (LSE:CPI), CRH PLC (LSE:CRH), Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR), Hunting PLC (LSE:HTG), ITV PLC (LSE:ITV), National Express Group PLC (LSE:NEX) and Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) amongst others.

Later today February flash EU CPI numbers will be released while in the US weekly jobless claims figures will be announced.