Good morning. At around 12.30pm today, we’ll finally learn who the next prime minister is, and that her name isn’t Rishi Sunak.

That, at least, is the widespread expectation, even if it’s also the kind of emphatic prediction that gives pollsters nightmares. Sunak’s supporters were still faintly suggesting in the Sunday papers that he could pull out a remarkable underdog victory over Liz Truss, citing their hope that a surge in late votes could break his way – but on Laura Kuenssberg’s new show on the BBC yesterday, he had the bearing of a man who would be as surprised as anyone if they turned out to be right.

On the same programme, Truss spoke in terms that indicated her awareness that she needs to hit the ground running in the midst of economic and Energy crises as severe as any a new prime minister has faced in living memory. Today’s newsletter is a roadmap for the first week, first 100 days, and first year of the – brace yourself – Truss era. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Canada | Police are hunting two suspects after ten people were killed and 15 injured in a series of stabbings in 13 different locations in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The majority of the attacks were on residents of James Smith Cree Nation, an Indigenous community of 3,400.

2. Energy | European gas buyers are braced for further pain after Russia said one of the main pipelines to Europe will remain closed indefinitely, prompting fears of energy rationing. Analysts warned that prices, which have risen by nearly 400% over the past year, would go up further when markets open today.

3. UK news | A 34-year-old man from Liverpool has been arrested on suspicion of murder and attempted murder in connection with the killing of nine-year-old Olivia Pratt-Korbel, Merseyside police have said. Two other men were also arrested.

4. Health | Ministers will introduce legislation as soon as parliament returns today to tackle the NHS’s worsening staffing crisis by making it easier for overseas nurses and dentists to work in the UK. It is hoped thousands of extra health professionals will come as a result of the new rules.

5. Pakistan | Authorities in flood-hit Pakistan have breached the country’s largest freshwater lake, displacing up to 100,000 people from their homes but saving more densely populated areas from gathering flood water, a minister said.

In depth: Forming a cabinet, finding £100bn – everything Truss must confront

The first week

Speech in Downing Street | Truss’ first big task is to turn towards the country, and away from the endless boosterism which captivated her party membership. The winner will make a short speech after the result is announced at lunchtime today, but new prime ministers usually start in earnest with an address outside No 10, and after visiting the Queen at Balmoral to formalise her appointment, Truss is expected to do that tomorrow if she wins.

This moment of maximum attention is usually used to set out vaulting ambitions for the future, but the economic picture is so unremittingly bleak that any optimistic vision will have to be tempered to be credible. Truss herself said yesterday that she will reassure people of “immediate” action on the cost of living. But she also said she will be “honest about what we will have to do”, while one aide told the Sunday Times (£) last week that she would aim to tell the public that “the times are hard and the tempest is here”, which is not the most romantic thing to hear from your new spouse as you set out on honeymoon.

Appointments | While there has been some talk of bringing talent from across the Conservative party into the cabinet, the big jobs look certain to go to loyalists on the right – an approach which one minister told the Observer would unleash “absolute mayhem” if followed across the board. That means Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor, and James Cleverly as foreign secretary.

If you are relieved by the prospect of Priti Patel’s exile to the backbenches, or enjoyed reports yesterday that Iain Duncan Smith is “disgruntled” at not being offered a cabinet job, you might blanch a bit at the prospect of Suella Braverman taking over at the Home Office. One big beast who certainly won’t feature: Rishi Sunak.

PMQs | Truss has spent much of the campaign dodging difficult interviews, but she can’t get out of prime minister’s questions on Wednesday. Keir Starmer may lack Andrew Neil’s bulldog-on-amphetamines quality, but he will hope to capitalise on any nerves and is certain to focus on the cost of living crisis, as this Sunday Telegraph op-ed suggests.

Tory backbenchers – around 200 of whom have never publicly backed Truss – will be watching closely to see if she can transcend her reputation for wooden public performances; the hardcore 12 who are allegedly already agitating for the return of Boris Johnson (?!) are likely to be irretrievable.

Emergency budget | That promise of immediate action is likely to mean Truss will axe green levies, reverse planned rises in national insurance and corporation tax, and perhaps cut VAT. Yesterday she told Laura Kuennsberg that it was wrong to look at her NI freeze, which will benefit the richest vastly more than the poorest, “through the lens of distribution”.

But the defining question of her premiership will be how far she is prepared to go to help the worst off – and if claims that she is planning a £100bn intervention is anywhere near right, her previously stated opposition to “handouts” may look pretty quaint. Reports today suggest she is seriously considering an energy bill freeze, an idea mooted by Labour last month.

The first 100 days

Strikes | Truss’s team has briefed reporters that there will be a sharp focus on the first 100 days as defining of her premiership. But the TUC congress starting next Sunday is likely to set an extremely difficult tone, with some of the country’s biggest unions expected to move towards coordinated industrial action. Truss appears to have little interest in conciliation: she has promised to legislate within 30 days to restrict key workers’ legal rights to strike through so called “minimum service levels”.

Ukraine | Truss has stuck to her predecessor’s line: “I will be Ukraine’s greatest friend,” she said in July. She has promised “more heavy weapons” and “more sanctions”. But as high energy prices bite over the winter, the broad coalition in Europe and at home supporting that position may begin to fracture: the question is whether a prime minister who has revelled in taking pops at her EU counterparts will be well placed to hold it together.

Brexit | While the Northern Ireland protocol bill – hugely controversial because it would allow the UK government to override Brexit trade arrangements without EU consent – was shepherded through the House of Commons by Truss herself earlier this year, its passage in the House of Lords looks much less assured. That will give Truss an early opportunity to assert her Brexit credentials – and she has until 15 September to trigger Article 16, which would suspend parts of the agreement, as a stopgap.

Coronavirus | The last thing Truss wants is to deal with a new outbreak of Covid-19 – but by the 100th day of her administration on 15 December, there is every chance that the UK will face a rising case count: infection rates this summer were higher than they were in 2020 or 2021. With pressure on NHS resources also likely to be elevated by an especially acute flu season, Truss and her likely choice as health secretary Thérèse Coffey may come under pressure from medical and scientific advisers to act – but Truss has already ruled out further lockdowns, and said that restrictions at the peak of the pandemic were too strict.

The first year

Energy | Once the immediate emergency is in hand – not that many observers expect that to be easily achieved – Truss told Kuenssberg that “we also need to sort out the supply issues”. She said that would mean allowing fracking for shale gas where local support exists as well as expanding the use of renewable sources. She also confirmed her willingness to expand drilling for oil in the North Sea – a stance which will not instil confidence in her commitment to Net Zero, and in any case would take decades to bear fruit.

Red meat | Party members will expect to see a long list of commitments fulfilled: more grammar schools, the abolition of “Stalinist” housing targets, a war on the “woke” civil service and, er, perhaps an end to motorway speed limits. While this somewhat Mad Max vision is likely to get pulses racing, Truss has also told colleagues she is determined to “strip away the crap”. That may mean that many of these aspirations stay on the “to do” list.

‘No new taxes’ | Truss could hardly have stated this promise more straightforwardly, or be more liable to criticism from the right if she breaches it. The question is whether she can stick to her guns as the costs of helping the most vulnerable with their bills become clear – and if the cost of borrowing rises as interest rates go up.

The next election | Labour has enjoyed a steady lead in the polls over the summer. While Truss may see some bounce as she takes office, she already has low personal favourability ratings – and a winter of fuel poverty in the post. Her best hope appears to be to delay an election until the last possible moment, which means late 2024 or even January 2025, and hope that Keir Starmer fails to capture the public imagination. Even then, it will be a tall order against the bleakest of backgrounds to secure a fifth Tory term.

What else we’ve been reading

• Merope Mills’ piece for Saturday magazine about the preventable errors that led to the death of her daughter Martha is a staggering indictment of medical failure. Somehow, as well as an urgent warning, it’s an unforgettable portrait of a beloved child who should have celebrated her 15th birthday yesterday. Archie

• As parts of the right whipped themselves into a frenzy in response to Joe Lycett’s sardonic appearance on Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday morning debut – see the front pages below – it is left to John Crace to remind them that perhaps they should have been more concerned with Liz Truss’s “weirdly affectless” performance. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• While artisanal doughnuts and avocado toasts are the cliched indices of gentrification, they aren’t a useful focus for energy in resisting it, writes geographer Leslie Kern. Instead, critics should aim at the “multiple Goliaths” of the property industry and its partners in government. Archie

• Was Boris Johnson the worst PM ever? Caroline Davies’ illuminating talk with prominent historians goes some way to answering that imponderable. Toby

• Simon Hattenstone’s most revealing interviews are often the ones with older subjects who no longer give a hoot what anyone thinks of them, and so it is in this one with the singer-songwriter Loudon Wainwright – not that he was ever a model of discretion. Archie

Sport

Football | Manchester United won a thrilling match against Arsenal 3-1, with a goal from debutant Antony and two from Marcus Rashford. Bukayo Saka scored for Arsenal. Meanwhile, Brighton beat Leicester 5-2 to leave the visitors still bottom of the table.

Tennis | In the men’s singles, Nick Kyrgios has beaten defending champion and world No 1 Daniil Medvedev to reach the last eight of the US Open. In the women’s singles, home favourite Coco Gauff wowed the New York crowd still mourning the defeat of Serena Williams by beating China’s Zhang Shuai to take her berth in the quarters.

F1 | Max Verstappen won the Dutch Grand Prix with a dominant drive from pole position for Red Bull, beating Mercedes’ George Russell into second place with Charles Leclerc third for Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton was left angry after a late strategy call when he was leading cost him a chance of a place on the podium.

The front pages

Many of the papers lead with the promise by our presumptive PM that she will make the energy crisis her first priority. “Truss team hold talks on freezing energy bills”, says the Times, while the Express has “Truss pledges action on energy bills in first week”, and the Mirror goes with “Truss: wait week for crisis plan”. The Telegraph offers “Truss could freeze bills to avoid energy ‘Armageddon’”. The Guardian leads with “Truss will press on with tax cuts despite Tory warnings”, but the Financial Times lead has the other side: “Truss will be safe hand on public finances, says ally Kwarteng”. The i has a picture of Truss and the headline “PM in waiting”.

The Mail’s lead, about Joe Lycett’s appearance on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, is “Now BBC comic mocks Liz Truss” while in Scotland the Record leads with the verdict of Nicola Sturgeon on the Tory race: “Truss will be a disaster”. The Sun leads with the saga of princes William and Harry, who are allegedly avoiding each other: “So near .. so far”.

Today in Focus

Should we delete our period tracking apps?

Since Roe v Wade was overturned in the US in June, there are concerns that law enforcement could request the intimate data users share with Period Tracking Apps. Johana Bhuiyan reports on the privacy concerns.

Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett

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The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

A government-backed plan to increase biodiversity and reduce flooding in England is being described by conservationists as an exciting and important step. Among the 22 projects in the ambitious landscape recovery scheme are an effort to create water meadows in the Cotswolds, and another to restore chalk streams and wetlands in Norfolk. Prof Alastair Driver, a director at the charity Rewilding Britain, called it “one of the most important environmental policies for England in a generation”.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.