NFL betting tips: Week One

2pt Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

2pt New Orleans Saints (-2.5) to beat the Tennessee Titans at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1.5pt Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Denver Broncos at 31/20 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons) to score a touchdown at 3/1 (Unibet, 888sport)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Bengals @ Browns

I understand the thinking behind the Bengals’ clash with the Browns being a stay-away game, but ultimately, I’ve arrived at the conclusion that the value is simply too significant to pass up.

At the time of writing, CINCINNATI are favoured by less than a field goal over their divisional rivals and it strikes me as one of those lines that has the potential to look pretty silly come Sunday.

History has factored heavily into the market, as Cleveland have won five of their last six meetings with their cross-state counterparts. Plenty can be taken from the past and the recent record is important, but it doesn’t tell the full story.

Cleveland go into week one with four defenders on the injury report – including cornerback Denzel Ward – and that’s a major concern when facing one of the premier offences in the NFL. Despite missing star receiver Ja’Marr Chase for chunks of the year, Cincinnati averaged over 26 points per game last season and Pro Football Focus regarded the Bengals as the best passing Offence in the entire league.

Joe Burrow will play on Sunday after nursing a calf knock and with a full complement of weapons alongside him, it could be a long night for a bruised Browns unit.

If Ward doesn’t make it, Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr probably start for the Browns’ defence and although there isn’t a massive drop-off in terms of their 2022 stats, neither recorded an interception last season (as oppose to Ward’s three) and each allowed at least one play of over 45 yards. Their inability to get the defence off the field will prove costly if Burrow can get comfortable early and Chase will be licking his lips at the prospect of being aggressive and getting into full flight.

Funny things can happen in the Battle of Ohio but this is ultimately a 9/1 Super Bowl shot against a 28/1 outsider, with a quarterback in Deshaun Watson who is yet to truly show us that he’s the same talent the Browns assumed they’d traded for.

We know Burrow is the real deal and Chase already has a reputation for eating good whenever the opposition shows him even a hint of a weakness. Cincinnati only have to win by two points to return odds of 10/11 and that sounds good to me.

Raiders @ Broncos

If I was pricing up the Raiders’ trip to Denver this weekend, I’d call it a pick ‘em, so I’m all over the RAIDERS in the interest of value.

Neither side looks particularly impressive this season and both carry significant question marks, but that only strengthens the argument that taking the 3.5-point underdog is the play.

Down the stretch, Denver may pull away and wind up putting together the better season of the pair, but the Raiders look to be a far more stable proposition in week one.

Vegas averaged 6.3 more points per game than their rivals in 2022 and – although the Broncos were significantly more efficient defensively – the numbers show that the Raiders were, on average, 2.8 points per game better off.

To bet on the Broncos is to bet on Russell Wilson showing significant improvement at the quarterback position and although that is possible, the 2022 tape showed little indication that the former Super Bowl champion was anywhere close to his past self.

Wilson recorded career-lows in both completion percentage and passer rating, while providing a measly TD:INT ratio of 16:11. It was distinctly poor from the 34-year-old and an immediate bounce-back in week one of this season has been made tougher by an injury report that lists Jerry Jeudy as questionable and Tim Patrick out for some time.

He’ll still have the talented Courtland Sutton to throw to, but Wilson will have to get the ball out quick. Maxx Crosby was excellent on Las Vegas’ edge last season on his way to 12.5 sacks and he matches up favourably against Denver’s fragile offensive line. Wilson was sacked a whopping 55 times last year and I suspect we may see him face-down in the dirt a few more times on Sunday.

With all that in mind, points may be hard to come by for Denver and that opens the door for the Raiders to sneak in and grab a valuable week one win.

They’re without Derek Carr this season, which may affect their ability to go over the top of defences, but I believe their quarterback replacement puts them in a great position to win this game.

After six seasons in San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo is now a Raider, reunited with his former Patriots’ co-ordinator, Josh McDaniels.

While Jimmy G may not be as flash as other quarterbacks in the league, he’s the model of consistency and his core stats are as impressive as they are unexpected. His career completion percentage of 67.6% is up there with just about anyone in the NFL (it’s 3% better than Wilson, for example) and despite never being regarded as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, Garoppolo has a mightily impressive regular season win-record of 40-17.

Before being consigned to the medical bench, Garoppolo outplayed Wilson in every key statistic last season and, with significantly fewer injuries to contend with, he brings greater firepower into week one, with Davante Adams among the receivers fit and raring to go.

Las Vegas appear to be the much surer thing in week one and although I won’t be getting carried away with their ceiling, I’ll happily take them as underdogs against a team I simply can’t trust to perform.

Titans @ Saints

The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are not the Saints of old, but they’ll still feel that they have enough firepower to win the NFC South and claim a post-season spot this year.

I like them in their home opener for a few reasons and not least the fact that their offence looks improved. He’s been frustrating at times during his career, but Derek Carr is certainly the most talented Saints quarterback since Drew Brees hung up his cleats and although he may head into his debut with a hint of nervousness, his excuses are fairly minimal.

In Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, Carr has a wide receiver duo at his disposal that probably isn’t getting the credit it deserves.

Thomas hasn’t been on the field enough in the last three seasons to put up the kind of freakish numbers he was famed for earlier in his career, but he comes into this year healthy and if his cameo last season is anything to go by, he still has his hands.

Thomas featured in just three games for the Saints in 2022, but he made them count, catching 16 passes from 22 targets and scoring three touchdowns.

As for Olave, he was the star of the Saints’ season and his presence went a long way to papering over the crack in the offence that Thomas’ absence had left. In a fantastic rookie year, Olave smashed through the 1,000-yard mark from just 72 catches, cementing himself early on as one of the league’s premier young receivers.

The potential of these two syncing up on Sunday is what makes me particularly like the Saints’ chances as Tennessee come to town.

Although offseason additions have been made, the Titans have a job to do with their defence. Up front, they had a very solid 2022 and have retained one of the better defensive lines in the league. Stopping the run has been a real strength of Mike Vrabel’s defence for a while and that’s expected to continue, but it’s a whole different story against the pass.

Despite their apparent sturdiness on the front end, Tennessee just haven’t been able to defend anything down the field and it resulted in them having a league-worst unit last season. All told, Tennessee gave up 29 receiving touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL) and almost 180 yards more than any other team. It was dismal and with the depth chart still showing injuries to the likes of Caleb Farley and Tre Avery, cornerback depth remains a big issue.

Carr racked up over 300 yards when facing the Titans in a Raiders uniform last September, with Mack Hollins the recipient of 158 of those. With respect, Thomas and Olave are objectively better players than Hollins and either (or both) could be set for a big day against a team that simply hates the ball going in the air.

A pass-heavy attack generally means points and with that in mind, I like the Saints to handle a depleted Titans side, cover the spread and get their season up and running.

Panters @ Falcons

Week one is full of uncertainty for obvious reasons but there’s one selection that I simply couldn’t miss out on. It’s the kind of pick that will torment any non-backers on Sunday if it does indeed land.

There’s a general sense of optimism around the Atlanta Falcons’ offence this season, with Desmond Ridder coming into his second NFL season and his supporting cast looking considerably stronger this time around. It’s a young group full of promise, but it’s the elder statesman of the offence that I simply can’t ignore week one.

In a move that should strike fear into defensive co-ordinators up and down the league, CORDARRELLE PATTERSON is currently listed on the Falcons’ depth chart in the ‘Joker’ position. Yeah, you read that right.

No longer pigeon-holed by either the wide receiver or running back position, Patterson now has an official place on the squad that reflects his contributions. The Falcons have literally created a brand new designation for him.

It is somewhat light-hearted, of course, but in pure footballing terms, the speedy runner really is a joker in the pack. He’s had a true career resurgence in Atlanta and his ability and willingness to play anywhere on the offensive side of the ball has paid massive dividends.

His career total of 37 rushing and receiving touchdowns appears fairly modest when you consider that he was drafted as a first-round prospect a decade ago, but 19 of those scores have come within the last two seasons. He’s been simply everywhere for the Falcons and has spent much of the time carrying what has been a fairly unimpressive team of late.

He no longer has the weight of the franchise on his shoulders in 2023 but I still reckon he’s worth a small wager on opening weekend at 11/4 to score a touchdown, in the hope that he gets the all clear to play.

Patterson hasn’t practiced consistently since mid-August due to a minor thigh problem but has clocked a pair of limited participations this week, in the build-up to the league opener.

Of course, this means it’s ideally worth waiting until the active roster is released on Sunday to lock this pick in, but the practice timeline suggests he’s in line to play.

Patterson may only take to the field for ten snaps on Sunday, but that could be all that he needs.

With rookie superstar Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegier all set to take on the rushing workload, Patterson can remain fresh and Arthur Smith can pick his moments injecting Patterson into the offence, whether that be behind the quarterback in a designed run-play or one-on-one with a Carolina cornerback in the red zone.

I certainly wouldn’t regard this pick as a lock, but in an opening week somewhat reliant on projections and hunches, Patterson is worth a flyer as he looks to live up to his new ‘Joker’ tag.

NFL betting tips: Monday Night Football

2pt Buffalo Bills (-2.5) to beat the New York Jets at 10/11 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Week one of the NFL season is rounded off with a much-hyped battle between the two sides expected to fight it out for the AFC East title this season.

It’s Aaron Rodgers’ first game for the Jets, at MetLife Stadium in the shadow of New York City, on September 11th.

Emotions are set to be running high on Monday Night Football and now they have their quarterback, Jets fans will be believing it’s their time.

They have just cause too, at least to a certain degree. I’m personally a big fan of the partnership that Rodgers and Garrett Wilson are about to strike up on the Jets’ offence and the team is littered with talent on the defensive side of the ball.

However, we’re yet to see the whole picture with Robert Saleh’s team and until I have cast-iron evidence that this side is the real deal, I find it immensely tough to bet against their divisional rivals from Western New York.

BUFFALLO BILLS carry a significant injury to Von Miller into this one, but it’s still a defence that gave up the second-least points in the NFL, on average, last term and the offence speaks for itself.

Aaron Rodgers may be one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but Josh Allen has the numbers to prove he’s the most effective quarterback in the game right now.

A multi-purpose threat, Allen has scored more touchdowns (130) than anyone else since 2020 and his record on Monday nights is hard to oppose.

In five MNF games, Allen has averaged 3.2 passing touchdowns per game, completed 70% of his passes and thrown just one interception.

These are mind-blowing stats and with the Bills retaining plenty of their key names, it’s hard to bet against Buffalo spoiling New York’s party. If the line goes beyond three points, I’d call it a no-bet contest, but I’m eager to dive it at 2.5 as I firmly believe Buffalo – who have won five of their last six against the Jets – can pull off victory by (at least) a field goal.

Posted at 2040 BST on 08/09/23

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