Hollywood’s ongoing actors’ and writers’ strikes mean the fall festival vibe will be markedly different this year, with few if any stars expected to take water taxis to the Lido, wave at cheering crowds in downtown Toronto or rub shoulders with the fleece-and-denim brigade in Telluride.

SAG-AFTRA’s Strike rules have put the kibosh in most cases on talent promoting, let alone shooting, films. That means no red carpets, no interviews, and no posting on social media by A-listers or any actors trumpeting new work from most studios and all streamers. In short, the stars are by and large expected to stay away from the fall festivals. Venice runs August 30-September 9; Telluride August 31-September 4; and Toronto September 7-17.

Whereas SAG-AFTRA has imposed a blanket ban on members participating in production or promoting work from “struck companies” — namely those that were signatories to its 2020 Minimum Basic Agreement, which is yet to be renewed, hence the strike — the guild has allowed independent productions to apply for interim agreements granting permission for actors to shoot and promote films.

Michael Mann’s anticipated Venice world premiere Ferrari, hailing from the independent space and tied to North American distributor Neon — which like Lionsgate and A24 is not a “struck” company — has got an interim agreement.

This means stars Adam Driver and Penélope Cruz could strut their stuff in Venice. However, while Screen International understands that outcome initially looked possible, in reality it now seems unlikely.

At time of writing, with the SAG-AFTRA strike stretching to more than 30 days and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) approaching 110 days of industrial action, there were signs of a backlash against interim agreements. (Note: WGA has not issued interim agreements and its rules forbid all members from working or promoting during the strike.) Nobody wants to be snapped by the paps decked out in expensive garments and flashing their dazzling Hollywood smiles while striking union members are walking picket lines in the blazing heat of Los Angeles and New York, struggling to afford their health insurance.

Standing in solidarity

Bradley Cooper came out early to say he was happy for Netflix to premiere Maestro in Venice but preferred to stay away in solidarity with his fellow actors and writers. As the film’s director, Cooper was well within his rights to attend — the Directors Guild of America signed a new three-year deal with the Holly­wood companies in June — but has chosen not to do so.

While the actors’ union has not returned to the negotiating table with studios representative Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) since it went on strike on July 14, the WGA and AMPTP had reconvened several times by the second half of August. According to sources, AMPTP counter-­proposals and WGA responses have gone back and forth amid signs that studio and streamer CEOs have been getting antsy. After all, there are only so many times your average media mogul can plead macro-­economic headwinds as a barrier to meeting union demands while they continue to enjoy multi-million-­dollar annual compensation packages.

It would be instructive to add that everything can change overnight, in which case — hallelujah! Cooler heads say it might take a while longer to resolve these strikes, with the parties far apart on key terms (see below). Estimates for when the magical handshakes might materialise range from September to November.

Despite all this, the selections at Venice and Toronto look very strong (Telluride tries to keep its roster secret although it is understood Netflix’s Nyad, Rustin and El Conde, Focus Features’ The Holdovers and Ethan Hawke’s Wildcat are among the crop heading to the Rockies).

The thinking among the studios and distributors seems to be that while there may be a lack of on-screen talent, that is no reason to postpone premieres. The world’s press and critics descend on fall festivals in numbers, eager to see and hear which Oscar and Bafta contenders everybody will talk about for the next six months. The studios value the buzz from these festivals.

At time of press, just a single title had been pulled from one of the trifecta, and that was erstwhile Venice opening night selection Challengers, Luca Guadagnino’s R-rated tennis love triangle headlined by Zendaya at Amazon-owned MGM. The studio pushed the release into 2024, secure in its conviction that it needed its star and her 185 million Instagram followers to give it a lift.

If Challengers is the only film that is yanked from the fall festival schedule, the consensus seems to be that Venice, Telluride and Toronto will be in good shape.

Awards consultants and their studio and streamer clients are expecting to fly in directors and producers, who can always be relied on to speak eloquently about their work. On top of that, the anticipated actor no-show presents greater opportunities for the craftspeople to take centre stage and promote their work. Screen has heard one company is turning over its Venice hotel rooms to the heads of department on its films, a move no-one is likely to begrudge.

The question is whether companies will start to push awards contenders into 2024, preferring to wait out the industrial action and return once the coast is clear. At time of writing, there had been rumours Warner Bros would do this with Dune: Part Two — another Zendaya film, although one where she is not the dominant marketing angle given Timothée Chalamet is the lead among a starry cast; the crafts will offer plenty to admire too.

The studio’s musical version of The Color Purple has also been reported in the US trade press as a possible holdover for 2024. For now, however, the Warner Bros films are set to open in November and December, as are Searchlight Pictures’ Venice entry Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos, Taika Waititi’s Toronto entry Next Goal Wins and Andrew Haigh’s All Of Us Strangers starring Paul Mescal.

Late-year releases offer a buffer amid all the strike confusion. Awards season sources say should the SAG-AFTRA and WGA disputes remain unresolved by mid-­September once the three big fall festivals are finished, decisions will have to be made about release dates. By then, distribution and awards teams will have a better understanding of how their films have played, and they will lean in further to scrutinise the rest of the awards season runway.

The hope is that directors, crafts teams (and influential awards season pundits) start the publicity ball rolling and when the strikes end, the stars and writers join the conversation. But then again, this is Hollywood, where nobody knows anything.