Recommended bets: ASB Classic & Adelaide International

1pt e.w. Alexander Bublik in the ASB Classic at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred)

1pt e.w. Adrian Mannarino in the ASB Classic at 25/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred)

1pt e.w. Dan Evans in the Adelaide International 2 at 18/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Jason Kubler in the Adelaide International 2 at 100/1 (BetVictor)

ASB Classic

• Auckland, New Zealand (outdoor hard)

I’ve never liked getting involved with the favourites in the week before a Grand Slam event – and the Australian Open is now just a matter of days away.

It stands to reason that the favourites at events such as these are probably expecting a decent run at the following major and so therefore it’s reasonable to suggest they may not be giving absolutely everything to win.

Some may approach this tournament with a view to playing a couple of matches before deciding a flight to Melbourne and a few days’ practise in the Slam venue’s conditions might make more sense. As a fan or a punter, you might not like it, but it is at least understandable.

And then there’s the injury factor – any little niggle this week is likely to result in a precautionary withdrawal, albeit the fairly-recent prize-money changes for Slam withdrawals make that slightly less likely.

I certainly won’t be backing top seed and bookies’ jolly Casper Ruud, who lost to Matteo Berrettini in his big match at last week’s United Cup event.

He’s also yet to play in a final in the week before a Slam – that’s a factor I like on my side in weeks like this.

Cameron Norrie, who heads up the opposite half of the draw, would appear to hold better claims.

He’s twice played in a final in the week before a Grand Slam – and one of those was here in Auckland in 2019.

His motivation may be higher than some of his contemporaries given he was raised in this city but I’d also question whether he really wants four more matches this week with Melbourne on the horizon.

Norrie looked in great nick at the United Cup where he went 3-0 and beat Taylor Fritz, Rafael Nadal and Alex de Minaur and if he brings that form and commitment to this event, he’ll be hard to stop.

But I again come back to that issue about a looming Slam – reach the final here and Norrie will get just one day in Melbourne to get used to the conditions before the much more important tournament gets under way.

Norrie could make quotes of 4/1 look big but I’m happy to pass.

So, who could take advantage if the big guns don’t really fancy pushing it too hard this week?

Well, in the top half John Isner holds decent claims.

The American is a two-time former champion of this event and has four titles across his career in weeks leading into the Slams.

However, the last of those was now nine years ago and at 37, you have to think Isner is prioritising the Australian Open – after all, it could be his final visit Down Under given his age and the size of his family (he now has three children).

Instead I’m going to side with another big server, perhaps for my sins, in ALEXANDER BUBLIK.

The Kazakh is hardly Mr Reliable and has let us down before but he’s out at 16/1 this week and doesn’t look to have the toughest of draws.

It’s David Goffin first up before Ugo Humbert or a qualifier. Clay specialist Francisco Cerundolo is the higher-ranked seed in his quarter with Ruud possibly awaiting in the semis.

Given Bublik’s approach to tennis, I’m really not sure that he looks much beyond his current assignment and with that in mind I think he’ll be going full pelt this week.

He’s always capable of a meltdown but played well enough at last week’s United Cup, despite two defeats.

Both were close, a 6-3 7-6 loss to Stan Wawrinka and a three-set defeat to Hubert Hurkacz. His big service weapon was working pretty well, Bublik being broken only once in each match.

One other factor worth mentioning at this stage is the weather.

Last week’s WTA tournament in Auckland was massively disrupted by rain which resulted in many matches being played indoors so the event could be completed.

Given the forecast, there’s a chance something similar could unfold here.

With his big serve getting plenty of cut-through, Bublik likes the indoor conditions and I’d imagine he’d be fine with moving inside.

It’s small-stakes only but Bublik looks worth a gamble at the price.

On the other side of the draw, I considered both Jenson Brooksby and Ben Shelton but in the end have plumped for ADRIAN MANNARINO.

The Frenchman played well at the United Cup, crushing Federico Coria before losing an epic battle with an inspired Borna Gojo.

He actually served for the match in that one before losing in a final-set tie-break but the level from both men was good and Mannarino will be aiming to carry that form into this event.

While he’ll be eyeing a decent Australian Open run, it’s hardly expected and I doubt he’ll have pencilled in 250 ranking points, which is what he would claim by winning this week. For reference, a player reaching the last 16 of a Slam earns 180 points.

Mannarino seems to agree that focusing on weeks such as this is good business.

One of his two career titles has come in the week before a Slam, while, in total, he’s reached four finals in such weeks – one of those being here in Auckland in 2015.

Finally, he’s another who wouldn’t be fazed by having to play indoors and 25/1 quotes look good, with the more widely available 22s still very much acceptable.

Adelaide International 2

• Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)

The second of the back-to-back Adelaide tournaments gets under way on Monday but this one lacks the quality of the first.

Novak Djokovic lifted the trophy on Sunday but no-one of his calibre will be doing the same this coming Saturday.

With most of the game’s true stars having headed to Melbourne to fine-tune their Australian Open preparations, Andrey Rublev is the only top-10 star in the field, although the fact that the seeds all come from the top 32 in the ranking shows there is still plenty of quality in the field.

After a first-round defeat in ‘Adelaide 1’, Rublev could do with matches under his belt.

And he has won here before, capturing this title in the same week in 2020.

But, as already pointed out in my Auckland preview, backing 10/3 shots in weeks like this is risky business and that’s before we consider his tricky-looking opener against a home wild card.

Rublev will face either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Alexei Popyrin first up – Kokkinakis is the defending champion, while Popyrin played well in Adelaide last week, qualifying, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and reaching the quarter-finals.

I can swerve Rublev and also second seed Pablo Carreno Busta.

He was supposed to play for Spain at last week’s United Cup but never did due to an injury niggle so you have to wonder what shape he’s in ahead of this event.

Instead I’m going to take a chance on DAN EVANS in the bottom half of the draw.

Admittedly Evans wasn’t at his best at the United Cup, winning only one of his three singles matches, but that also means he’ll be coming here determined to knock his game into better shape ahead of the Australian Open.

Importantly, Evans is a player with a fine track record in these pre-Slam weeks.

Two of his three ATP finals have come in this every week of the season, showing he’s usually ready to give his all rather than look to what lies ahead.

One of those finals came in Sydney in 2017, while another was in Melbourne, the week before the 2021 Oz Open.

That’s very encouraging for those prepared to side with the Briton at 18/1.

He’ll open against Mackenzie McDonald, who only got into the draw following a late withdrawal, while last week’s finalist Seb Korda, who was a possible second-round foe for Evans, has also pulled out.

Carreno Busta could await in the quarter-finals, with Karen Khacahnov the man seeded to make the semis from quarter three.

That’s not a bad draw for the fifth seed and I’m happy to side with him at 18s.

In the top half, I was tempted to go in again with last week’s pick Roberto Bautista Agut.

The Spaniard looked well set after he beat Rublev in his opening match but then lost a tight contest with eventual runner-up Korda – the American won both of his break points, while RBA lost both of his.

Four of his 11 titles have come in pre-Slam weeks, two of them in this very week, albeit both were in Auckland.

However, from 40/1 last week, he’s now just 8/1 and that’s a little too small for my liking.

Instead I’m going to throw a dart at 100/1 shot JASON KUBLER.

That price isn’t really taking into account how he played last week at the United Cup where, as a late replacement for Nick Kyrgios, he beat both Evans and Albert Ramos-Vinolas to go 2-0 in the competition.

Performing so well will have been huge for his confidence and, as a home wild card, I’m sure he’ll be among those giving 100% this week.

He certainly spoke glowingly about his time in Sydney last week and I’m a big believer in how training and working alongside higher-quality colleagues can help raise a player’s level – I remember Kamil Majchrzak was one such example who came out of last year’s ATP Cup playing very well.

Conditions here are pretty quick and Kubler showed his propensity for slick courts last summer when he made the semis of Newport (where he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime) on the back of a last-16 run at Wimbledon.

This week, he’ll open against a qualifier before facing either comeback kid Kyle Edmund or Miomir Kecmanovic, who won just three games against Daniil Medvedev here last week.

That looks a decent draw and while Rublev could follow, I’ve already outlined why that might instead be one his Aussie colleagues.

Of course this is a long shot but I don’t think it’s as long as the price suggests, especially given this week’s record for producing big-priced finalists.

The old Sydney event held in the week before the Australian Open was twice won by Viktor Troicki (he beat Mikhail Kukushkin in one of the finals), while other surprise finalists there included Evans, Julien Benneteau and Andreas Seppi.

Having moved to Adelaide, it was hardly expected that Kokkinakis would go so well 12 months ago and the same could be said of runner-up Arthur Rinderknech.

Now read…

Posted at 1600 GMT on 08/01/23

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