Anybody who even mildly bets the NFL preseason — and sure, there’s worth available and my head may explode if I’ve to endure one other dialogue about its deserves — is nicely conscious of the sudden scoring that has occurred up to now. Of the primary 17 preseason video games this month, 14 have cashed the over. I requested an expert bettor who closely assaults the preseason market, and he undoubtedly plans to regulate accordingly. Nevertheless, one oddsmaker instructed me that he is not going to alter his numbers, given such a small pattern. Nevertheless, he does anticipate increased totals this week, given starters are anticipated to play longer than they may at every other level this preseason.

As for the micro, I watched each single preseason recreation from begin to end. I picked up a number of tidbits that I both will apply to the remainder of preseason or regular-season futures. It is unwise to react drastically to something, given some starters performed solely a sequence or two. However generally that is all it’s essential uncover a superb angle and scoop different bettors. It is a aggressive area, so it is all about deciphering noise, circumstantial occurrences and actionable info. That is what resonated most:

1. In truth, I’m scared for Chicago Bears followers. They’re only a tad bit too optimistic about Justin Fields. They need it so badly, and that need may result in devastation. Personally, I’m not utterly offered on Fields, however regardless, I additionally suppose he has the fewest playmakers of any beginning QB. It is simply not a superb state of affairs, and thus there are seemingly alternatives to fade Chicago within the first-half odds in the course of the preseason. I favor the primary half as a result of Trevor Siemian and Nathan Peterman have sufficient beginning expertise to excel towards backups. Chicago’s 14-0 halftime deficit on Saturday is extra prone to be an omen than anomaly.

2. Talking of which, the Bears go to Seattle on Thursday, and this looks as if a superb state of affairs to again the house workforce within the first half. Not a lot is predicted from the Seattle Seahawks this season. In truth, they’re the fourth favourite at Caesars Sportsbook to attain the fewest factors. (Sure, you possibly can wager on that.) Pete Carroll will possible want a thirteenth and 14th man to keep away from the NFC West basement.

Nevertheless, with Geno Smith and Drew Lock, the offense appeared polished and competent in its preseason opener. The 2 QBs have been scapegoats and verbal punching baggage of their careers, and whereas which may principally be warranted, they’re pretty skilled and may deal with vanilla defenses which might be so prevalent in August. I like Seattle’s possibilities within the first half towards the Bears. Plus, as a result of Smith and Lock had been the one two quarterbacks who noticed the sphere within the preseason opener, I actually like Seattle towards the Dallas Cowboys in second-half odds of its Week 3 recreation. Whether or not it is Smith or Lock who comes off the bench, their regular-season expertise ought to shine towards a Dallas workforce that can possible lean on Ben DiNucci and nonetheless appears as undisciplined as ever. Mike McCarthy’s workforce led the NFL in penalties final yr and had a whopping 17 on Saturday.

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3. So there’s McCarthy, after which on the exact opposite finish of the spectrum is John Harbaugh. The main points and specifics that outlined him as a particular groups coach from 1988 to 2006 at each the faculty and professional ranges haven’t waned one iota since he grew to become a head coach. They’re in his DNA — each figuratively and actually. The Harbaugh males know just one approach to compete, and lots of bettors are thrilled about it. The Baltimore Ravens gained their twenty first straight preseason recreation on Friday, extending their very own NFL file. Not solely is that inexplicable, given the favored disinterest of preseason wins and losses, however the Ravens are 19-2 ATS throughout this preseason run. The purpose unfold is meant to make the end result 50/50 — however that is solely till you account for a Harbaugh.

Baltimore visits Arizona on Sunday, and I feel it is a given which chook I’ll again. How are you going to not?

4. Alongside these avian traces, I’m reconsidering my Philadelphia Eagles stance. They’re a classy choose to win the NFC East, and I used to be having a tough time becoming a member of the conga line for a flock that didn’t beat a single double-digit win workforce final yr and appeared utterly overmatched in its playoff loss to Tampa Bay.

Nevertheless, Jalen Hurts does look fairly dynamic, and Friday’s broadcast shared an eye-opening factoid. That is the primary time since highschool that Hurts has led the identical offensive system in consecutive years. The training curve of terminology and nuances is fairly steep for anybody, so simply think about the hurdles he has needed to endure. Granted, it was a preseason recreation, however Hurts ran his unit easily and effectively. These Eagles is aware of who they’re (the published additionally shared that Philly ran the ball 59% of performs over the ultimate 10 regular-season video games), and there is simply an interesting swagger and moxie permeating that sideline. If life is all about timing, then every thing simply feels proper for this Eagles squad that’s led by an underrated head coach in Nick Sirianni.

I have never absolutely determined what I would like, however I actually cannot fault anybody for firing on the Eagles +155 to win the NFC East.

5. The Eagles drafted Matt Barkley in 2013, and he has now collected checks from 9 completely different NFL groups, together with a number of stints with the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills. To say he is a journeyman backup quarterback is an understatement. Evidently, in regular circumstances, he isn’t one to make you run to the betting window. Nevertheless, in a preseason betting world with hidden gems and obscure angles, there’s an attract to Barkley. In truth, he simply may be an in-game betting cheat code.

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On Saturday, with the Payments trailing 24-10 at residence within the fourth quarter and the Payments about +1200 on the reside cash line, Barkley promptly led Buffalo on consecutive TD drives to tie the sport after which positioned the Payments for the successful subject purpose. In between these three scoring drives, Indianapolis Colts rookie Jack Coan was ineffective with back-to-back three-and-outs. And that is the place in-game wagering is so priceless. One QB could possibly be on the depth chart to offer stability and management whereas the opposite is preventing an uphill battle to make a roster. Within the preseason, late within the recreation towards third- and fourth-stringers, who would you slightly guess on?

6. In case you’re not a whole die-hard and laying within the weeds to select off a nasty in-game line, that is OK. You may truly favor maximizing the ultimate few weekends of summer season with typical actions. I am unable to blame you. So here is one remark I’ve for the common season: There isn’t a a part of me that sees this season ending remarkably nicely for Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. He may begin each recreation and play tremendous, however I extremely doubt he’ll symbolize an enormous constructive storyline come January. Particularly, it is time to pound the below on Tannehill’s 3,525.5 passing yards. There are simply too many variables mounting towards his having a robust season.

Rookie QB Malik Willis began and performed into the third quarter Thursday, exhibiting off his upside with a pleasant play-action TD move and likewise a TD run. He appeared dynamic at occasions, albeit towards backups. He is formally listed as a third-stringer, however I feel it is sufficient to suppose Tannehill’s beginning days are numbered this season. And even when he begins all 17 video games, I nonetheless imagine the below cashes, particularly after buying and selling away receiver A.J. Brown. Additionally, Willis may be used for a drive or two every recreation to drive opposing defenses to organize for a dual-threat quarterback, thus diminishing Tannehill’s alternatives.

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In 2021, Tannehill surpassed that prop whole by fewer than 200 yards in a season by which a lot went proper; the Titans completed with the AFC’s high seed and wanted their QB a bit greater than typical, because of operating again Derrick Henry lacking greater than half the season due to an damage. Does Tannehill have the chops to deal with the requires the rookie Willis as soon as the veteran struggles? Have in mind a large egg stays within the minds of many followers and coaches. Tannehill threw three interceptions and completed with a ten.3 QBR in a three-point residence playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. He is coming into on skinny ice and with a low ceiling, so this wager has far more methods to win than lose.

7. I’ve but to observe HBO’s “Exhausting Knocks” this season. I’m not enamored with the personalities behind the scenes and no matter intimate connection this workforce has shaped with viewers. Nevertheless, I’m nonetheless leaning towards leaping on the Detroit Lions bandwagon — a minimum of when it comes to backing them on a weekly foundation. It is only one preseason recreation, however this workforce appeared remarkably extra competent than what I noticed to start the 2021 marketing campaign.

Detroit began 0-11, which included double-digit deficits within the fourth quarter in 5 of its first six video games. Let’s face it. Head coach Dan Campbell appeared utterly overwhelmed in his first season in Detroit. However that hard-nosed mentality has gained over a locker room and adjusted to the calls for his place necessitates. The workforce closed final yr with a 10-3 ATS mark, and I like their vibe and path — a minimum of to cowl numerous video games once more.