During Moscow’s ongoing massive Military operation against Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Wednesday of a third world war with “nuclear and devastating” consequences. Read the article to determine if there will be a World War III and who will support whom.
World War III
According to state-owned TASS, Russia’s longtime top diplomat responded to the possibility of a third world war by saying that it would be devastating.
As U.S. President Joe Biden said, a third World War would be a better alternative to Washington’s tough sanctions against Moscow. Asked if he was surprised that sanctions were being imposed against athletes and journalists, Lavrov said that Russia was ready for any sanctions imposed against it.
He commented, referring to the ban and sanctions imposed by Western countries, that athletes, intellectuals, actors, and journalists would be the targets of the sanctions. He claimed that “dictators” like Vladimir Putin must “pay the price” for invading another country during his inaugural State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
Russia has been banned from using US airspace after being invaded by the United States. According to a Qatar-based news channel, Lavrov said the special operation against Ukraine was designed to prevent Kyiv from buying nuclear arms.
According to the channel, Russia would not allow Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons. It quoted him as saying that the military operation in Ukraine is aimed at disarming the country.
Despite Ukraine’s obligations under the Budapest Memorandum, which stipulated that the country hand over nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees, President Vladimir Zelensky has not discounted the possibility of Kyiv revising those obligations.
World war III: Who Will Support Whom?
My knowledge about this topic is somewhat limited, but I will give it my best shot. World War 3 would not be fought by every country on Earth. Truthfully, most South American, African, and Oceanian countries and a good number of Asian countries wouldn’t fight each other. It was only because colonial powers ruled so many countries that WW2 involved many countries.
I’m not exactly sure what the cause of a World War 3 might be, but I’m going to assume that each country’s economic and military status is as it is now. If the conflict starts in Asia (around Taiwan, the South China Sea, or South Korea) or in the Middle East (around Israel, Iraq, or Iran), it would most likely be in Asia or the Middle East.
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Team the USA
· The U.S.A.
· The European Union. Due to their NATO obligations, they are obligated to side with the U.S. against a democratically elected country. There are four primary sources of military power:
· France
· The U.K.
· Italy
· Germany
· Israel – This country, too, will surely side with the U.S. as most of their enemies will be on the other side of the conflict. They receive most of their weapons from the U.S., their strongest ally.
· Canada- A democratic country located near the U.S. On par with Europe.
· Taiwan – The war may start due to their invasion, so they will undoubtedly side with the countries that recognize them.
· Japan – We have had Japan as an ally since WWII and China as our enemy. Japan would side with the U.S.
· South Korea – Located right next to China and adjacent to North Korea. Just like Taiwan, they’ll support the U.S. when the fighting starts.
· Saudi Arabia – It’s a democracy, but they will fight Iran. Friends are enemies of enemies.
Team Russia/China
· Russia
· China
· Iran – The USA and Israel consider them enemies, and the Russians back them. This site will no doubt ally with them.
· North Korea – This country is allied with China and Russia, and they want to take over the southern half of the country.
There might be a few I’ve missed, but I think these are the most prominent players. Here are my thoughts on what would happen in such a conflict.
The Cold War or World War III?
Two things will be assumed to make this scenario work.
· The situation does not involve nuclear weapons.
· Team Russia/China is the aggressor.
Iran is very likely to attempt to attack Israel as well. If this were to happen, it would be catastrophic. With an effectively coordinated strike between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and U.S. military forces, the Iranian military would be crippled and forced to surrender.
Already, the U.S. war machine is churning. U.S. Navy forces have steamed towards Japan from the Pacific, deploying in full force. Large ground troops are crossing the Atlantic as part of American reinforcements in Europe. The tides are turning as now ground troops are arriving.
The U.S. navy dwarfs the Chinese so that Chinese forces will be pushed back. Taiwan, the Philippines, and South Korea will be freed over time. The U.S. may send troops if China refuses to submit. Nevertheless, U.S. and European forces in Eastern Europe will have driven the Russian Army back to Moscow at that time.
As of now, four outcomes are possible.
· Russia and China will negotiate a truce that allows them to continue their trade, but with less power and influence than previously.
· Team USA indeed invaded Russia and China, dismantling their governments and replacing them with “democratic” ones. However, I cannot guarantee that these governments will function well.
· When backed into a corner, Russia and China launch their nuclear weapons and cannot win.
· All of this seems unlikely. I simplified the answer to avoid further complications. It would not be as I predicted if World War 3 happened. A small amount of fighting is also likely to bring peace if war breaks out since nobody wants to see a war between the major powers. The Middle East will likely see fewer proxy wars.
Some Notes of the War | World War III
Throughout the war, technological warfare causes mass cyber hacks, military mis-deployments, and similar chaos everywhere. This is not included in history because it is so widespread that it would be impossible to fit them all in here.
Space warfare also occurs. The Chinese Tiangong space station falls on Washington DC "accidentally" while the ISS is bombed by Russian terrorists. Smaller events also occur.
The course of the war | World War III
2029
On September 1, 2029, North Korea, an SCO member, invades South Korea in an attempt to unify the two Koreas again. The United States declares war on North Korea hours later. And all of NATO declares war on North Korea 2 weeks later. China stays neutral at first, but is eventually forced to assist North Korea, or else all of the Korean peninsulae, a common launching point for invasions into China, will fall under Western control. Because of this, SCO and NATO treaties are activated against each other. North Korea launches a blitzkrieg against South Korea and captures key points quickly. A few days pass and war breaks out in the Middle East when Iran declares war on Saudi Arabia, hoping to bolster its failing economy through the capture of oil reserves. Turkey begins the invasion of Syria supported by Iraq. Iran invades Iraq as a gateway to help Syria. Israel declares war on Iran to prevent a possible attack on their borders through Iraq and Syria, but in the confusion, Palestine can secede.
2030
In Asia, economic ties between China and its regional neighbors (ASEAN, Japan, India, Taiwan, and the Stans) prevent war between any of them. A heavy industry that once developed in China is in the process of moving away to India and Indochina, increasing living standards in China and its neighbors. China, despite economic troubles, can rehabilitate its economy through the great Xin Zhong Guo Di Chiu movement. As a result, war is not prominent in East Asia. Peaceful reforms forced by economic and environmental impetuses in China cause the government, although still communist and authoritarian, to allow small political parties to form and provincial democracies to spring up, greatly improving China's regional stability. Overall, the Oriental area of influence is relatively well off in the war.
2031
Because of Venezuela's collapse, Chile and Argentina invaded Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil in the hope to reestablish a Venezuelan state, but led to a continent-wide guerrilla war that has not shown signs of stopping. Iran has successfully invaded southern Saudi Arabia but failed to conquer Iraq successfully because of Turkish intervention. Russia and its allies are invading the northern part of the Middle East to gain access to Iran and to invade Europe from 2 directions. In eastern Europe heavy fighting occurs between NATO and the SCO. In southeast Asia, India had invaded eastern Myanmar so Myanmar surrendered, but then Thailand was losing fast so Indonesia, Malaysian, Chinese, and Singaporean troops came in to help. The Philippines is quickly becoming a key player in West Pacific Stability, and in Korea, a stalemate occurred and a ceasefire is declared. In North America, a naval battle occurred between Russia and United States but because the US navy is stretched thin and is nearly wiped out by China, Russia wins. China has invaded and conquered Hawaii and is planning to distract American troops to the west coast so Russia can invade Alaska. China's regional partners are angered by this but can do nothing to stop it.
2032
Russia had invaded Alaska and is advancing deeper into North America. Egypt had invaded and conquered Libya and Sudan, setting up puppet governments in their place and establishing a North African Egyptian Empire. Iran had been advancing deeper into Saudi Arabia but was soon blocked by Saudi Arabian and Israeli troops and is undergoing heavy fighting against Iraq at its borders. North Korea and South Korea merged into a single political unit after much insistence from both the SCO and NATO, who wish to redirect energy elsewhere.
2033
A stalemate occurred in the fight in western Russia. Saudi Arabia has regained its original borders and is preparing for the invasion of southern Iran. The Russian advancement in North America is halted and a stalemate is declared. Australia and NATO friendly states in southeast Asia are halting the Pakistani-Chinese advance in the Indian Ocean, where they have been preparing an assault on US-led South Africa. Russian and other SCO forces were advancing slowly in the Middle East. The SCO economy was running down and riots were becoming more common and harder to control.
2034
Iraq and Saudi Arabia invaded Iran and are making progress fast. After heavy battles and lots of casualties, the USA had finally retaken Alaska with the help of Canada and is now preparing an invasion of eastern Russia, NATO forces are now advancing even deeper into Russia from the west. The Russian-dependent portion of the SCO was then on the brink of defeat and Russia was retreating from the Middle East. The capital of Russia was moved from Moscow to an unknown location. NATO friendly states invaded China from southeast Asia but were met with heavy resistance, as China employed Sun Tzu's Art of war and Guerrilla tactics to tremendous effects, like in the Vietnam War. Russia causes
2035
With help, India had gotten back to its original territories and Pakistan immediately surrendered, causing a seismic shift in priorities within the Oriental-Chinese bloc of the SCO. Saudi Arabia and Iraq had almost captured Iran but Iran has sworn that they will never surrender, deploying its nuclear arsenal across much of the Middle East and obliterating millions of lives and cities, and turning the Middle East into a giant fallout zone. Central Asia is invaded by NATO-friendly states, but is halted when it reaches the Western Chinese border by the "Second Great Wall of China," a giant Maginot Line of heavy artillery and military resistance. Meanwhile, the USA and Canada invade eastern Russia, and Russia is about to collapse. In fact, its near-death imminence is becoming a hot topic within the SCO, as Chinese and other Asian states are quickly cutting ties with Russia. NATO was getting ever deeper into western Russia and had captured Moscow. The Turkish government invaded Russia from the South and penetrated deep. The turning point comes on December 1st of 2035, as Chinese troops cut a tactical betrayal and invade Russia as well, seizing its Siberian mineral and oil-rich fields. They also send a simultaneous message to NATO stating that after Russia is divided up, they are willing to discuss peace.
2036
Russia fights a desperate war until June. As all historians know, it is impossible to conquer Russia in the winter, and this was proven as Russian forces reclaimed ALL of their territories during the winter, causing the NATO and Chinese-led SCO to suffer immensely heavy losses. However, despite the casualties, when Spring came, a renewed assault was led on Russia, spearheaded by the Chinese and Indians because of their massive population advantage, but with weapons and money from NATO. Despite this cooperative anti-Russian war, the NATO-Oriental war is still ongoing, and China loses its western territories after the second Great Wall is overwhelmed by European forces. Four clear blocs have developed: The Oriental Bloc (of the Chinese-dependent SCO that split from Russia when it was obvious Russia would lose and betrayed them), the Russian Bloc (of the Russian-dependent portion of the SCO), the European Bloc (Of the EU, who suffered extremely heavy losses in the war and is becoming angry at the US for "using them" as nothing more than a military deployment point) and the US Bloc (which also consists of Britain and US key allies). By August, Russia finally surrenders and is divided up between American, Chinese, and European territories. From then on, the Oriental - NATO war commences. However, it is half-hearted: public support is at almost 0% in the West and riots are increasing across East Asia: in China, to stop the war and form a better government, and in its neighbors, to break ties with China and declare war on them (the leaders of those nations don't want this because it would spell national disaster in terms of economy and military: even all joined together, their military barely matches China's). By December 25th, the Christmas Pact establishes peace between the two sides.
Postwar
After the war was over, NATO nations installed democratic governments in all of the conquered territories, and global peace had finally achieved. China succumbs to revolution for the next year and a half, but a partnership between the disillusioned people and the nation's tired military forms a new Aristarchy of China quickly: a Singaporean-type, forward-looking, and powerful economically and militarily nation which its regional allies and neighbors have nothing to complain against. NATO intervention has given India back to Pakistan, in which the Muslims and Hindus live mostly peacefully side-by-side, and China's more backward allies are eventually developed following the same guidelines as China: economic industrialization, political reform, and peace. Afterward, United Nations was reinstated and the world entered a great era of rebuilding, peace, and democracy.
The regions of the world generally consist of, after the war:
The Oriental Order, is a massive, technologically advanced, democratic union of East Asian and Central Asian states with the sole purpose of creating a self-sufficient, powerful, and democratic union in East Asia to serve all of its citizens faithfully,
The American Order is a similarly massive order of US-eccentric or dependent states that help maintain order in the post-WW3 world.
The European Order, split from the American Order due to populism and growing disillusionment. Europe wishes to reconstruct the colonial world of Eurocentrism through peaceful means, but obstacles such as massive casualties in the last three world wars, failing and aging infrastructure, and a US-dependent military prevents this from happening.
The Non-aligned Order consists of various African, Pacific, and other nations that normally tend to align with one alliance or another, but never definitively or formally (such as South America's postwar integration with America, or Africa's postwar integration with the Orient).
The Fallout Zone consists of large swathes of Middle Eastern territory irradiated by Iran's nuclear strikes, and which are uninhabitable except by insurgencies and small organizations to this day. This is the only place where nuclear weapons have been used to such deadly effect and serve as a grim warning to humanity of the dangers of war.
Other events that occurred during the war (of little importance)
US Invasion of Western African coastline to counter growing SCO Influence there.
Rehabilitation of Iran into the Democratic Republic of Persia by joint NATO/Oriental forces.
Canada's disillusionment with US Policies
The Indian expansionist movement was led by war hawks.
The US invasion of Western South America to destroy SCO forces.
The merging of various small states into larger ones (like that of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan into China and the new Oriental Order, and the assimilation of various African states into the Union of Africa.
The EU-led invasion of SCO-aligned Serbia was a complete and utter success.
How World War III became possible
It was in August 2014 that the real danger began and that we heard the first warnings of war. That month, unmarked Russian troops covertly invaded eastern Ukraine, where the separatist conflict had grown out of its control. The Russian air force began harassing the neighboring Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. The US pledged that it would uphold its commitment to defend those countries as if they were American soil, and later staged military exercises a few hundred yards from Russia's border.
Both sides came to believe that the other had more drastic intentions. Moscow is convinced the West is bent on isolating, subjugating, or outright destroying Russia. One in three Russians now believes the US may invade. Western nations worry, with reason, that Russia could use the threat of war, or provoke an actual conflict, to fracture NATO and its commitment to defend Eastern Europe. This would break the status quo order that has peacefully unified Europe under Western leadership, and kept out Russian influence, for 25 years.
Fearing the worst of one another, the US and Russia have pledged to go to war, if necessary, to defend their interests in the Eastern European borderlands. They have positioned military forces and conducted chest-thumping exercises, hoping to scare one another down. Putin, warning repeatedly that he would use nuclear weapons in a conflict, began forward-deploying nuclear-capable missiles and bombers.
Europe today looks disturbingly similar to the Europe of just over 100 years ago, on the eve of World War I. It is a tangle of military commitments and defense pledges, some of them unclear and thus easier to trigger. Its leaders have given vague signals for what would and would not lead to war. Its political tensions have become military buildups. Its nations are teetering on an unstable balance of power, barely held together by a Cold War-era alliance that no longer quite applies.
If you take a walk around Washington or a Western European capital today, there is no feeling of looming catastrophe. The threats are too complex, with many moving pieces and overlapping layers of risk adding up to a larger danger that is less obvious. People can be forgiven for not seeing the cloud hanging over them, for feeling that all is well — even as in Eastern Europe they are digging in for war. But this complacency is itself part of the problem, making the threat more difficult to foresee, manage, or, potentially, avert.
There is a growing chorus of political analysts, arms control experts, and government officials who are sounding the alarm, trying to call the world's attention to its drift toward disaster. The prospect of a major war, even a nuclear war, in Europe has become thinkable, they warn, even plausible.
What they describe is a threat that combines many of the hair-trigger dangers and world-ending stakes of the Cold War with the volatility and false calm that preceded World War I — a comparison I heard with disturbing frequency.
They describe several ways that an unwanted but nonetheless major war, like that of 1914, could break out in the Eastern European borderlands. The stakes, they say, could not be higher: the post–World War II peace in Europe, the lives of thousands or millions of Eastern Europeans, or even, in a worst-case scenario that is remote but real, the nuclear devastation of the planet.
I. The warnings: "War is not impossible anymore"
Everyone in Moscow tells you that if you want to understand Russia's foreign policy and its view of its place in the world, the person you need to talk to is Fyodor Lukyanov.
Sober and bespectacled, with an academic's short brown beard, Lukyanov speaks with the precision of a political scientist but the occasional guardedness of someone with far greater access than your average analyst.
Widely considered both an influential leader and an unofficial interpreter of Russia's foreign policy establishment, Lukyanov is chief of Russia's most important foreign policy think tank and its most important foreign policy journal, both of which reflect the state and its worldview. He is known to be close to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Fyodor Lukyanov speaks at a 2014 conference in London. (Anthony Harvey/Getty Images for The New York Times) |
I met Lukyanov around the corner from the looming Foreign Ministry compound (his office is nearby), at a small, bohemian cafe in Moscow that serves French and Israeli food to a room packed with gray suits. He was candid and relaxed. When the discussion turned to the risks of war, he grew dire.
"The atmosphere is a feeling that war is not impossible anymore," Lukyanov told me, describing a growing concern within Moscow's foreign policy elite.
"A question that was absolutely impossible a couple of years ago, whether there might be a war, a real war, is back," he said. "People ask it."
I asked how this had happened. He said that regular Russian people don't desire war, but rather feared it would become necessary to defend against the implacably hostile United States.
"The perception is that somebody would try to undermine Russia as a country that opposes the United States, and then we will need to defend ourselves by military means," he explained.
Such fears, vague but existential, are everywhere in Moscow. Even liberal opposition leaders I met with, pro-Western types who oppose Putin, expressed fears that the US posed an imminent threat to Russia's security.
I had booked my trip to Moscow in December, hoping to get the Russian perspective on what was, at the time, murmurings among a handful of political and arms control analysts that conflict could come to Europe. By the time I arrived in the city, in late April, concerns of an unintended and potentially catastrophic war had grown unsettlingly common.
Lukyanov, pointing to the US and Russian military buildups along with Eastern Europe, also worried that an accident or provocation could be misconstrued as a deliberate attack and lead to war.
In the Cold War, he pointed out, both sides had understood this risk and installed political and physical infrastructure — think of the "emergency red phone" — to manage tensions and prevent them from spiraling out of control. That infrastructure is now gone.
