said the Managing Director and Chairman Fitch Agency For sovereign ratings in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Jan Friedrich N. Disturbances The Red Sea It will not affect country rankings GCCBecause of its strong external reserves, he warned that it might exhaust Egypt.

Friedrich added, during the “Credit Expectations” conference organized today in Dubai, that the unrest reduced the rates of movement in… Suez Canal 70% in the first weeks of 2024, at a time when the channel’s revenues recorded $9 billion last year.

He added that if the attacks continue, they will be a drain on a country that is already suffering from a very difficult external situation, while the regional impact can still be relatively controlled, he said.

Egypt is currently holding discussions with… International Monetary Fund Regarding a loan program worth $3 billion, its officials visited the country in recent days.

Fitch Ratings shed light on the war in Gaza strip As a risk that may lead to political instability in the region, in addition to affecting tourism and oil prices in its expectations for the year 2024.

Escalation step

The managing director of Fitch said that attacks Houthi group Yemeni attacks on Israeli ships or those carrying goods for Israel in the Red Sea is an escalatory step.

He added that the range of possible escalation scenarios is wide, and that the maximum escalation is so far away that it will not be taken into account by Fitch at this stage.

The Houthis carried out drone attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea because they were Israeli or headed to Israel In support of the Gaza Strip, the United States and Britain responded by launching strikes on Yemen.

On the other hand, the Houthis began targeting American and British ships in the region, considering that the interests of both countries had become “legitimate targets.”

“Slow but strong”

The agency described the non-oil growth of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries as “slowing but still strong,” as Friedrich said that Saudi Arabia is witnessing relatively strong continued growth due to reforms, in addition to large investments led by the public sector.

However, the challenge facing the Kingdom is to plan for a period of low oil prices, and the need to invest heavily in diversifying sources of income, but the Kingdom has already shown the ability to integrate and bounce back during periods of low oil prices.

Goods' prices

According to a report issued by the agency today, redirecting shipping routes south of the Red Sea would keep the prices of major commodities high due to geopolitical factors, including oil, gas, chemicals, and fertilizers, as long as the possibility of greater shipping or greater production is not available.

The agency expects that increasing risks in the region, including recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, the agency does not expect a rise above $80 per barrel of Brent crude for 2024, as long as there are no fundamental disruptions in oil production, or A broader escalation of attacks on the region's most vital oil transportation routes.

It represents the total oil shipments through the Suez Canal and the SUMED PipelineBab al-Mandab Strait About 12% of global oil trade will be seaborne in the first half of 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Gas

The agency maintained its gas price forecast at $12 per million cubic feet for the year 2024, noting that 8% of global liquefied natural gas trade passes through the Suez Canal.

While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the United States, with Qatar accounting for 13%.

The agency ruled out redirecting Qatari liquefied natural gas around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting flows of American liquefied natural gas to Europe, and Qatari liquefied natural gas to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.