Mexican soybean imports will register a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the 2022-2023 cycle (September-August), to 6 million 450,000 tons, according to forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In the following trading season, 2023-2024, the USDA forecasts those imports to rise to 6,550,000 tons.

It also forecasts that Mexican soybean production will be 170,000 tons in the 2022-2023 cycle, this is 5,000 tons less than previously projected.

The estimate was revised downwards based on more complete data from Mexico’s Secretary of Agriculture (Sader), which reflects a lower harvested area than initially forecast.

Updated Sader data includes final figures for the Spring/Summer 2022 crop cycle and updated information for the Fall-Winter 2022/23 crop cycle as of December 31, 2022.

More than anything else, soybean production declined due to abnormal weather conditions, which negatively affected yields. Official sources indicated that the rainy season was irregular and inopportune.

The greatest reduction in planted and harvested areas occurred in Tamaulipas, one of the main producing states, in the Spring-Summer 2022 agricultural cycle.

While the decrease in the planted area in Tamaulipas is attributed to the lack of ideal weather conditions before and during the planting cycle, last year’s rains were scarce, directly impacting the soybean crop.

The soybean planting season in Tamaulipas was from June 15 to August 5, in which a large amount of planting was expected. However, the expected months with the highest rainfall, September and October, resulted in little rain.

In the same Spring-Summer 2022 crop cycle, the planted area was damaged in the state of Campeche (around 10,000 hectares), due to the drought that affected this state, decreasing both yields and harvested area.

For the 2023/24 marketing year, the soybean planted area will reach 160,000 hectares, which is a 20% increase compared to the revised estimated area for the 2022/23 marketing year, but still 16% less than the of the marketing year 2021/22.

This increase supposes the resumption of normal climatic conditions (that is, adequate humidity levels), which would also be reflected in higher yields this campaign.

However, despite this increase in production, Mexico continues to supply only 3.4% of its total domestic needs.