Labor appears set for a historic win in the NSW seat of Bega, while the Liberals have suffered a swing against them in former Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s seat of Willoughby in the state’s Super Saturday by-elections.

A predicted Labor victory would be its first in Bega, held by the Liberals since its creation in 1988 and occupied by retiring member Andrew Constance since 2003.

Opposition Leader Chris Minns previously said the seat would be ‘almost impossible’ for his party to win, but early tallies in the south coast electorate on Saturday night gave a swing of more than 14 per Cent to the ALP’s Michael Holland over the Liberal Party’s Fiona Kotvojs.

Dr Holland says the ‘incredible’ swing to Labor in Bega is a reflection of the community’s response to the current government.

‘It’s also been a plebiscite … to wanting a local member who will represent them with integrity and honesty,’ Dr Holland said on ABC News.

Premier Dominic Perrottet said on Sunday the government will reflect and learn from ‘some disappointing results across the board’.

There’s certainly lessons to be taken from the ‘particularly disappointing’ result in Bega, but by-elections are notoriously hard for governments, Mr Perrottet said.

‘[It is] disappointing to look like losing Bega, but this is a strong result for the state government, defying the average swing against governments in by-elections and, against all odds, cutting into Labor’s lead in Strathfield,’ Mr Perrottet said.

The premier also doubled down on his stance about combating the Omicron outbreak, despite criticism over decision to hastily reopen the state amid high case numbers.

‘Going into lockdowns may be popular, but it is not right,’ he told Liberal supporters in Strathfield.

‘We need to keep businesses open. We need to keep people in work.’

With votes from just under a third of the electorate counted as of 10.45pm on Saturday, Dr Holland had received 57.1 per cent of two-candidate preferred votes, compared to Ms Kotvojs’ 42.9 per cent, according to the NSW Electoral Commission.

The Liberals went into the by-election with a margin of 6.9 per cent.

A likely loss in Bega will push the government further into minority and force it to rely more heavily on the votes of independent or minor party MPs. 

Ms Berejiklian’s former seat in Willoughby is also experiencing a swing of almost 18 per cent, while the swing Mr Barilaro’s electorate of Monaro has narrowed. 

However, Scott Morrison claimed the results reflected the popularity of retiring local MPs and would not damage federal seats in the same region. 

Citing examples, the prime minister pointed to the departure of ‘very successful members’ of the Coalition, including former premier Gladys Berejiklian, Nationals leader John Barilaro and cabinet minister Andrew Constance, who will contest the federal seat of Gilmore later this year. 

‘You could expect in those seats, there was a very strong following for both of them [Ms Berejiklian and Mr Barilaro], and indeed for Andrew Constance as well,’ Mr Morrison said said.

‘[Mr Constance is] an outstanding local on the south coast of NSW and I’m very pleased that he’s seeking to join our team and is running for us in the seat of Gilmore, at the next federal election.

‘I think that bodes quite well.’ 

Despite Mr Morrison’s calm attitude, the seat of Bega overlaps with the federal seats of Gilmore and Eden-Monaro – which are must-win electorates for the Morrison government at the upcoming federal election. 

Meanwhile, Mr Minns says he and Dr Holland were ‘straight back to work’ on Sunday morning, discussing plans for the Eurobodalla Hospital development, which the premier said his government was already building.

Labor candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li looks set to win Strathfield, leading Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr 54.4 per cent to 45.6 per cent with about 37 per cent of the electorate’s votes counted.

Mr Perrottet insisted Labor’s vote had gone backwards in the electorate and vowed Ms Sakr would win the election next year.

The Nationals are on track to hold former deputy premier John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro despite a swing of more than six per cent.

With about 44 per cent of the vote counted, Nichole Overall led Labor’s Bryce Wilson 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

Two-candidate preferred results for Willoughby, which Labor did not contest, are not yet available.

Liberal Tim James has so far secured about 43.4 per cent of first preference votes, trailed by Independent Larissa Penn on 32.1 per cent, with just over 40 per cent of the blue-ribbon electorate’s votes counted.

The by-elections were viewed as a test for the premier and his government’s handling of the state’s Omicron wave.

The stakes were also high for Mr Minns, who has pitched himself as the man to make Labor a real election chance after more than a decade in opposition.

Mr Minns said voters had sent the premier a message on Saturday that the government needs to change direction.

Close to 40 per cent of constituents voted early or via post, so results are not expected to be finalised for some time.

The NSW Electoral Commission says no votes will be counted on Sunday.

Counting will resume on Monday, and postal votes will be counted from next weekend, with final results not expected until later this month.