Fears that Northern Ireland will eventually vote to quit the United Kingdom are laid bare in a poll published today.
The survey, for pollster and Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, reveals that a clear majority would to opt to stay in the Union if a referendum were held now. However, just one in three Northern Irish voters believe that would be the outcome if a so-called ‘border poll’ is held in ten years’ time.
And Lord Ashcroft warns that ‘in Northern Ireland, politics is played for the long term, and with that in mind few are resting easy on the Unionist side’.
Based on interviews with 3,301 people, the poll records that if a vote were held tomorrow, most people would vote not to join the Republic by 54 per cent to 46 per cent (excluding ‘don’t knows’).
Fears that Northern Ireland will eventually vote to quit the United Kingdom are laid bare in a poll published today. Pictured: A ‘No Hard Border’ poster is seen below a road sign on the Irish side of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
The pollster describes the result as a ‘welcome early Christmas gift for Unionists’. He adds: ‘In a similar survey two years ago, I found a wafer-thin margin for Ulster to join the Republic in a united Ireland.’
He warns that as in Scotland, ‘ideals of national identity’ are being ‘edged aside’ by a focus on ‘practicalities like public services and living costs’ – but that in the longer term, most voters predict a different outcome in a border poll.
He writes: ‘Most voters expect a referendum or border poll within the next decade, and while the majority believe the province would vote to remain tomorrow, only one in three think this would be the outcome in ten years.’
Factors for such a change of heart include ‘simple demographics’, with one Catholic boasting ‘we breed better’ than the Unionists.
A fire burns in front of the police on the Springfield Road as protests raged in Belfast during the summer
However, the peer warns that Brexit is also an issue, with more than one in five voters saying that leaving the EU ‘has made them question their support for the province remaining part of the UK’.
The results come amid a continuing row over the Government proposing an effective amnesty for both terrorists and British Army veterans to draw a line under prosecutions from the Troubles.
Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis was last week forced to postpone plans to bring legislation forward amid reports Defence Secretary Ben Wallace believed plans were unfair to military veterans.
A senior Ministry of Defence source dismissed the claims yesterday as speculation, adding that the Government was ‘committed to finding a solution’.
Unionists can cheer now – but here are five reasons their joy may be short-lived, writes LORD ASHCROFT
LORD ASHCROFT FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY
The news that Northern Ireland voters would choose to stay in the UK – by a majority of 54 per cent to 46 per cent – excluding those undecided – is a welcome early Christmas gift for Unionists. In a similar survey two years ago, I found a wafer-thin margin for Ulster to join the Republic in a united Ireland.
As in Scotland, where support for independence has fallen, ideals of national identity are being edged aside by a renewed post-pandemic focus on practicalities such as public services and living costs.
Some doubt that Ireland would want to take on the North, given the current state of both economies and the extent to which Northern Ireland benefits from UK public spending.
Apart from the call of old loyalties and historical destiny, there are practical questions. What would the health service be like? Would you still get your old age pension?
The Northern Ireland Protocol was negotiated to avoid a hard border with Ireland, by effectively keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s single market for goods. Pictured: Violence broke out after a Loyalist protest, with youths attacking police officers and petrol-bombing a bus
Then there’s the tenor of any border campaign, never mind the aftermath, whatever the result. All these things add up to a majority for the status quo… at least for now.
But in Northern Ireland, politics is played for the long term, and with that in mind few are resting easy on the Unionist side. Most voters expect a referendum or ‘border poll’ within the next decade, and while the majority believe the province would vote to remain tomorrow, only one in three think this would be the outcome in ten years’ time.
There are five main reasons for their pessimism. The first is simple demographics.
As one Catholic voter told us cheerfully and candidly in nationalist Strabane: ‘We breed better than they do. They have big TVs; we have big families.’ More than seven in ten voters aged under 25 said they would vote for a united Ireland.
Second is Brexit. Most believe that leaving the EU was the wrong decision for Northern Ireland, and nearly nine in ten blame Brexit for shortages in their shops. More than one in five say Brexit has made them question their support for the province remaining part of the UK.
Third is the belief that the rest of the UK is indifferent to Northern Ireland’s place in the Union. Voters on all sides feel that their British compatriots regard them as an expensive nuisance, and that any talk of ‘levelling up’ applies to the North of England, not to them.
Fireworks explode at police vehicles after being fired at police officers with a water cannon during clashes with nationalist youths
Nearly four in ten Unionists – not to mention two-thirds of nationalists – think that even if it can’t say so, the Westminster Government would rather Ulster joined its southern neighbour. Boris Johnson’s agreement to an Irish Sea border under the Northern Ireland Protocol only adds weight to this perennial suspicion.
Fourth is the understanding that as the Troubles become a more distant memory – and, for younger voters, not even that – traditional loyalties will count for less. In some ways, this is an answer to prayers. ‘We’re damaged goods from a time that was just awful,’ as one old Loyalist put it.
That generation has longed for their children to be able to grow up in a place where politics is not dominated by green and orange, Catholic and Protestant. But the more real this vision becomes, the less instinctive loyalty the Union might command – especially as the Republic looks to many like a more modern and liberal place than the North.
The final cause of Unionist gloom is their feeling that, in the political arena, they have simply been outclassed. None would want to turn the clock back on the peace process or the Good Friday Agreement.
But many believe that through a combination of patience, strategic discipline, reinvention, presentational genius and sheer persistence, the nationalists are on course to achieve their aim.
Maybe not in this decade, but within their lifetime or that of their children. Many on all sides expect Sinn Fein to become the largest party at Stormont after the Assembly elections next year.
The Unionist movement is in disarray. People on all sides watched with distaste at the way the party ousted Arlene Foster. Polls show support is half what it was three years ago.
Listening to past DUP voters in the Loyalist stronghold of Carrickfergus, their exasperation was palpable. For years, they said, they had put up with what they saw as the party’s outdated stance on social issues as the price of defending the Union, yet the border between Ulster and Great Britain was drawn on its watch.
Many are turning to the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice and its leader Jim Allister – who may be just as socially conservative ‘but at least he doesn’t spout about it’. The only reason many see for sticking with the DUP is to prevent a Sinn Fein First Minister next year.
But if the biggest pro-Union party has managed to make itself unattractive to many Loyalist voters, how much more is this so among younger generations for whom the Union is not the totemic issue it has been for their parents and grandparents?
Repelled by the DUP’s stance on issues like gay marriage, they will increasingly look to parties and leaders who share their values, but not necessarily a commitment to Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.
For now, most Northern Ireland voters want to stay. The emerging generation may be persuaded that the UK offers them a better future than the alternative, but today’s fractious and backward-looking Unionist parties are not exactly well placed to make the case.
Lord Ashcroft is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For details about his work, visit lordashcroft.com or lordashcroftpolls.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook @LordAshcroft
