A Russian official visited Libya to reassure allies that fighters from the Wagner Group would remain in the country under Moscow’s control. The official, Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, met with eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi. During the meeting, Yevkurov informed Haftar that Wagner forces would report to a new commander. This visit, although coincidental in timing, suggests that Russia’s presence in Libya may deepen and expand. According to Libya researcher Jalel Harchaoui, this military meeting indicates that Moscow intends to maintain the global network established by the Wagner Group.
The meeting between Yevkurov and Haftar followed a failed mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces against Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. This military meeting signifies that Moscow does not plan to abandon the mercenary group’s extensive network. With Prigozhin believed to be dead, the future of the lucrative web of military and commercial operations created by Wagner in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is uncertain. Wagner has been involved in significant conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali, gaining control of valuable resources such as gold mines and oil fields.
Putin had already dismantled Wagner operations in Syria, and after the mutiny, Wagner forces in Ukraine handed over their base to Russia’s regular military and began relocating to Belarus. However, it remains unclear how many Wagner forces are currently in Belarus. In Africa, Wagner may continue to operate under new management or be absorbed by another Russian mercenary group. Its ability to operate in areas where Russia has no formal or legal presence makes it a valuable tool for Kremlin foreign policy. According to John Lechner, a researcher writing a book about Prigozhin, Wagner is a functioning entity that needs to continue its operations.
Following the mutiny in June, Prigozhin intensified Wagner’s presence in Africa. However, reports suggest that the Kremlin is creating alternative companies to take over Wagner’s operations, although none are currently capable of doing so. In countries where Wagner operates under an official agreement with Moscow, analysts do not anticipate significant changes at the moment. In Libya, Wagner forces have been supporting Haftar’s faction since 2019, participating in the assault on Tripoli and guarding military and oil installations. As Russia has no official military role in Libya, its involvement would still rely on Wagner or a similar outfit.
A spokesperson for Haftar did not respond to questions about the meeting with the Russian official. However, earlier statements indicated that the discussions focused on military cooperation, including coordination on training with Russian weapons. The talks were also expected to address cooperation in fighting terrorism. In the Central African Republic, President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s political adviser expressed sadness over Prigozhin’s death but stated that Wagner’s presence would not be affected. He emphasized that Prigozhin could be replaced, and the presence of Wagner instructors would continue.
Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding Wagner’s future poses risks in Africa. Analysts suggest that operational difficulties may arise, impacting the African countries involved with Wagner. The fate of Wagner’s economic assets, such as Evro Polis, a company reportedly owned by Wagner with oil assets in Syria, remains unknown. The extent of its profits from mining and logging businesses in the Central African Republic and other African countries is also unclear. Bringing these assets under direct Russian control or transferring them to another contractor would be challenging. While the distribution of resources may change, the assets themselves are likely to remain intact.
In conclusion, the visit of the Russian official to Libya reaffirmed Moscow’s commitment to maintaining control over Wagner forces in the country. The meeting followed a failed mutiny and indicated that Russia intends to preserve the global network established by the Wagner Group. The fate of Wagner’s operations and economic assets, as well as its involvement in conflicts across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, remains uncertain. However, analysts believe that Wagner will continue its activities, albeit potentially under new management or within another Russian mercenary group.
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