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Ukrainians skeptical of Russian withdrawal claims

As Western authorities warned of an impending Russian attack on Ukraine, Yuri Vasylevych and his saxophone quartet performed tango to a packed house at the Kyiv Philharmonic.

When pro-EU rallies turned violent in 2014, the show continued on despite the sound of gunfire in this grand columned hall.

Now, Russia has massed forces on Ukraine’s border in a bid to keep the country in Moscow’s orbit rather than Nato’s, and Yuri fears his country is once again facing a “gun to its head.”

“We were dreaming to live like France or Britain, other free countries,” he said ahead of the Valentine’s night performance.

“Eight years later, we’re still unsure if it will be calm after our show or if there will be gunfire.”

Despite the musician’s worry and the catastrophic warnings of Western politicians and intelligence services, Kyiv’s streets have remained unusually tranquil.

The word “panic” painted on a city wall is the only indicator of panic. There is no trace of the Russian assault that some sources believed would take place on Wednesday.

However, because of their long history of living in Russia’s shadow, Ukrainians are skeptical of recent steps that signal Moscow is easing tensions just a little.

  • Ukraine wants to meet with Russia within 48 hours to discuss build-up
  • Tensions in Ukraine: An eastern city unites against Russia after eight years of war
  • Russia launches military training with Belarus, escalating tensions in Ukraine

First, Russia’s foreign minister recommended Russian President Vladimir Putin to keep talking to the West and negotiate his security needs.

Mr. Putin reaffirmed his demands on Tuesday, stressing that he does not “wish for conflict.”

His defense ministry said the same day that some troops were returning to their garrisons “as planned,” and posted video of tanks moving down a road while a soldier with small flags held up traffic in the snow.

Ukraine’s foreign minister has disregarded the alleged evidence.

“We in Ukraine have a rule: we don’t believe what we hear, we believe what we see,” Dmytro Kuleba posted on Twitter.

“If these statements are followed by a genuine pullback, we will believe we are on the verge of a genuine de-escalation.”

The Ukrainian defense ministry announced a few hours later that its website had been hacked. Two big banks’ services were also hampered. The reason is unknown, but Ukraine has previously been the victim of large cyber-attacks that it has traced to Russia.

While Ukraine’s allies focus on dramatic predictions of a full-fledged military invasion – with major cities under fire and tanks advancing on Kyiv – it was a timely reminder that the country is still vulnerable to less evident types of attack, and that Russia is still at risk.

“Everyone in the West is looking for a sign of hope in Russia’s announcement that it is removing some forces from the border,” Ukrainian political researcher Maria Zolkina says, “but it actually implies the risk of a hybrid attack is considerably higher.”

A smaller assault launched from eastern Ukraine already held by Russian-backed forces, she believes, would be a more realistic threat, spurred by a “provocation.”

“We have so many examples of when Russia talked about de-escalation and it didn’t materialize,” Ms Zolkina says, citing just last spring as an example. “So this latest move could just be a diplomatic ruse to divert attention away from the real issue.”

Allies of Ukraine believe so. They claim that Russia has strengthened rather than weakened its positions in recent days.

After all the talk of serious military action “within 48 hours,” Western authorities are now asking people not to “fixate” on a specific date and warning that the crisis might be “very protracted.”

Ukraine has not let down its guard, but it has also refused to be intimidated.

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Ukrainians to fly the flag, wear blue and yellow ribbons, and join hands in a gesture of national togetherness on Wednesday.

Many city councils around Ukraine, according to social media, are planning mini marches as a show of patriotism and defiance.

On Tuesday evening in central Kyiv, IT-specialist Alexander stated, “I thought I’d raise a flag on my balcony.”

Following the war warnings on the news, he’s had a nervous few days and even devised an escape plan with his family in case the city was attacked.

“I’m a little more at ease now,” Alexander said, “since Ukraine appears to be signaling that it might not join Nato, which I like.” “NATO enrages Russia, which could lead to a conflict rather than protect us.”

Student Yaroslav said he was defying his parents’ calls to flee to western Ukraine for safety on the same street as trendy cafes and galleries.

He, on the other hand, does not feel the crisis is ended.

“Putin flexed his muscles, and perhaps he got what he wanted – or perhaps the pullout is merely a distraction,” Yaroslav speculated. “However, this isn’t our first battle with Russia, and we’re prepared to strike back if necessary.”



This post first appeared on Rush Hour Daily, please read the originial post: here

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Ukrainians skeptical of Russian withdrawal claims

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