That may have been the best game I have ever watched.

…and that’s coming from a St. Louis Cardinals fan.

It is indisputable there is a bigger stage among the ‘Big 4’ sports, than a game 7. That game last night transcended baseball. It impacted the entire sports community, regardless of team affiliation, in a way that I’ll want to forget, but don’t think I ever will.

I would argue there wasn’t even one defining moment in the game last night. If all you show somebody in 20 years is the Zobrist opposite field hit, they won’t be as impressed as watching Aaron Boone walk off the Red Sox in 2003. The emotional roller coaster that went from definitive Cubs victory, to here we go again Chicago, to “Why is Chapman still in?!”, to the Cubs actually just did that, is in itself this sought after ‘moment’.

When Rajai Davis hit the camera well next to the left field foul pole, I thought I just witnessed one of the defining home runs in baseball history. That was an $11 million dollar closer with the hardest average fastball velocity in baseball, throwing at the knees of a hitter with a .384 lifetime slugging percentage. The teams involved hadn’t touched a World Series trophy in over 150 combined seasons. And Davis tied the game with one swing.

The case for this being one of the greatest games of all time goes on and on. The three takeaways that will stay in my mind – still as a devout Cardinals fan – are as follows.

One. There wasn’t anybody who I wanted to make the final out less than Aroldis Chapman. We were giving an individual who, to the best of our knowledge, assaulted another woman, one of the highest honors in baseball – throwing the final pitch of a World Series. Needless to say, I’m secretly a Mike Montgomery fan. That was karma at its finest, whether you believe in karma or not.

Two. I’m convinced that Kris Bryant will go down as one of the greatest players in baseball history. He’s 24 years old, plays two positions at an elite defensive level. Cut his strikeout rate eight percent after only 650 ABs at the major league level in 2015. Already has 5 postseason home runs. Has 65 home runs, 201 RBIs, and 21 steals in only 306 career games. Possesses one of the most fundamentally sound swings in baseball. If I could by stock in one player, this is the guy, and the postseason just confirmed this.

Three. You can get away with bad decisions… IF you win the World Series. The best example of this is as follows. What did the media talk about more. Buck Showalter not using Zach Britton or Joe Maddon committing numerous clear faults? Maybe you say it’s close, but the difference in leverage between the AL play in game and the World Series is night and day. I don’t want to think of what would happened to Joe Maddon if the Cubs lost this game.

However long this World Series Hangover lasts for the Cubs, I know one thing.

I’m already looking at 2017 World Series odds…

Defending Champs

I understand. Predicting the 2017 World Series less then 48 hours before the 2016 ended is insane, but I’m looking at these odds and thinking a few things. How does my perception of ‘Team X’ and their chances of a deep postseason run compare to the Vegas odds? How likely is it to move? Is it, in my flawed subjective reality, a good investment?

That’s why when I see the sparkling Chicago Cubs at 3.5/1, I have extremely mixed emotions. First, I agree that they should be the favorite to win the 2017 World Series, as they arguably will have the best team on paper, but there is absolutely no value at 3.5/1 to make it interesting at almost any dollar amount. If you’re even considering putting cash on something as volatile as the World Series, you need at least a 9/1 or 10/1 payout for your insanity. Second, if the Cubs World Series odds are this low, that means their NL Pennant odds will be even lower, which makes for a ton of really nice value bets for just the National League Champion. Cubs versus the Field payouts will be very tempting.

The simple logic behind how tough repeats are comes into affect too. The Cubs are coming into the off-season with a ton of question marks in their bullpen. Maddon’s usage of the pen in the World Series alone shows how little confidence he had in the unit as a whole. They have three pitchers on the wrong side of 30, with clear signs of regression to come, and who all just threw a noticeable amount of postseason innings. Just ask the Mets how that worked out for three of the best pitchers in the game in 2015. The offense? It’s there and may even be better than 2016, but as the Red Sox showed this postseason, you need more than the best offense in the league to win a title.

The 14/1 Club

The Mets, Blue Jays, and Indians all sit at 14/1 odds and I only see value in one of them.

There isn’t a team with more question marks than the Mets heading into the off-season. Syndergaard had elbow flare ups in 2016, Harvey is done for the foreseeable future, Jacob deGrom wasn’t the epitome of health and neither was Steven Matz. Yoenis Cespedes opted out and with the Mets signing Bruce to a $13 million deal, they seem to be hedging a Cespedes loss with an OF who cannot replace Cespedes level production. I’m fairly confident when Spring comes around the odds will have increased to the 18/1 range. So if you’re itching to place this bet, for whatever crazy reason you have, I suggest waiting. ***See ‘Adjustments Already…’ heading for an update***

The Blue Jays I actually like as a whole heading into next season, but there’s worry that the line will move based upon Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s landing spots. With space to realistically sign only one, the state of the offense if that ‘one’ isn’t E5 doesn’t bode well. The pitching narrative of Sanchez and Stroman developing is fun to project out, but I am too worried about the potential movement of this line in a few months to gamble with it.

What’s the difference between the Indians and Cubs World Series hangovers? The Indians made it this far with two of their stud pitchers sidelined –  Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. That makes them easily my favorite of the 14/1 teams. They’re past the 10/1 threshold I like to be above and they won’t be losing too many pieces heading into the off-season. Often hesitant to make world-shattering moves with their moderate payroll, if they acquire some of the value talent that will likely be kicking around the free agent pool, their roster can round out nicely. Add to that a flexible bullpen with two legitimate closers? 14/1 shows some value.

On My Radar

Houston Astros at 16/1. This is a line that I’ve compared mentally to the 25/1 odds the Yankees currently sit at. I see these two teams as very similar, with experience and development being the main difference. The Yankees 2017 season will look a lot like the Astros if you average their 2014-2015 seasons. The Astros in 2017 will look a lot like how the Yankees will look in two years time. Young, explosive, and freakishly talented. So in mathematical terms, what these odds are saying is a few years of development for similar team structurally is worth about a 2.5% better chance of winning the world series. In betting terms, you’d be getting 9 times less of a multiple on your cash (simply 25 minus 16). I have no problem going from 25/1 to 16/1 in order to bank on those few extras years of experience. The Astros aren’t losing a lot in the free agent market, have some money to spend, and with a ‘down’ year in 2016, are a prime candidate to eclipse the 86 win mark they held in 2015. Springer, Altuve, Correa, Gurriel, Giles, Musgrove, McCullers, and Keuchel. It’s not a matter of who, but a matter of how the pieces will fit together and perform. This is essentially the third year with this team and it’s becoming essentially they get playoff innings under their belt.

Detroit Tigers at 22/1. I like this lineup a lot. Even if it is aging to what will likely be a sharp demise as the Tigers farms system isn’t stacked with players like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier. The biggest piece they may lose is Francisco Rodriguez, which makes me extremely weary about the state of their bullpen. If they want to fix it without K-Rod in the free agent market, they’ll have to pay up, big time. Yet, I still like where their odds are because of the team’s strengths. They’ll retain almost all their offensive firepower and the re-emergent ace that Verlander seems to be. Justin Upton has to have a bounce-back year, Miguel Cabrera will always be a threat, Victor Martinez just hit 27 home runs at the age of 37, and Stephen Moya possesses some of the best raw power of any prospect out there. There are a lot of question marks with the inner workings of this team, but they’re an improvable team that should be in contention for the majority of the season, making 22/1 a juicy enough payout to consider.

*Update – Looks like Cameron Maybin is off to the Angels. While this gives the Angels an everyday left fielder for the first time in a while, it’ll be interesting to see who the Tigers slot into Center Field. Does it change my perception of the team? Possibly a little bit, but it’s not a massive loss.

Misvalue

Marlins at 40/1. The most astounding misvalue to me is this line. It jumps out immediately and sits in the back of your mind like sour milk.

If there was a way you could short this line like a stock, I would have liquidated my 401k and used the proceeds for a bet on this to fall somewhere in the 66/1 area.

I see absolutely no way that this team contends without Jose Fernandez at the helm of the rotation. He had one of the best seasons peripherally a pitcher has ever put together and the Marlins’ rotation is left with its centerpiece as the budding Adam Conley. A good pitcher, but not yet a confident number two or three starter. Their offense is another aspect of the team that I am simply not sold on. Yelich, Ozuna, and Gordon are good hitters, arguably great, but are they good enough to be the centerpieces if Giancarlo Stanton goes down with another injury? I’m firmly on the ‘no’ side of that argument. They showed some life last year, but I don’t see Yelich rounding into a power profile hitter and Ozuna putting together another first half that was as good as 2016.

For an odds comparison on the Marlins line, lets pull in the Colorado Rockies who sit at 66/1. Starting Pitching? I’ll take Gray and the motley of arms that didn’t have a bottom 5 FIP (!!!!) over Conley and Wei-Yin Chen. Offense? No questions asked, the Rockies have the advantage. Defense? Marlins have a slight advantage I would say, but this has the smallest weight. I understand that the Rockies are a tough team to value when trying to remove the ‘Coors Field’ aspect, but there is undeniable talent on this team in the form of Blackmon, Gonzalez, Dahl, and Arenado, with more coming studs coming through the system. The argument is there for both teams, but if you had to put money down on Miami or Colorado, and you saw 40/1 versus 66/1 to one, you’re taking the 66/1, or you’re limiting your earning potential.

Get Rich Quick

Have to love looking at a few extreme longshots for the title. Last season I wrote an article that found scenarios where the three ‘worst’ teams by Vegas’s assumptions, would win the world series. While I will probably conduct a similar piece once the odds settle come Spring Training, no reason to shy away from some crazy thoughts now.

Diamondbacks at 75/1. My confidence level on them winning the series is in the bottom 10 of all teams, but to have them at even or worse odds than the Athletics and Brewers is a crime. They possess one of the top five players in baseball with Goldschmidt, and probably the best player among the bottom 10 teams in the league. They’re getting A.J. Pollock back after a freak injury, and he shouldn’t be too far removed from the 20 HR, 40 SB, .315 average player he was in 2015. Management is currently going through an overhaul after Dave Stewart decided to turn back the team’s development clock by light years, after some of the worst management we’ve seen in this century. I think  a bounce-back is in store for the uniquely uniformed Diamondbacks in 2017. If you’re creating a map for any team around the 66/1 mark, the Diamondbacks jump out as the most capable of putting together a .500 season and in some alternate universe a run into the postseason.

Adjustments Already…

Yes, there has already been one line movement. There will be many more with free agent moves, but I assumed it would take a few days before the books adjusted after the inital release. I was wrong…

New York Mets from 14/1 to 16/1. Ruins the accuracy of the ’14/1 Club’ header, but affirms my belief that the line was already too high for the state of the Mets’ team.

Keep in mind this is only a look at World Series odds, which give the nicest payouts. Come Pennant and Playoff odds, there will be a lot more analysis to do and the high level themes in this piece will likely stick. 

Lance

Photo via the Flickr Creative Commons, Thanks to our friend AP3 for the shot from Game 7 of the World Series.

Spreads via Bovada.com

Statistics all from Fangraphs.com, the best baseball resource on the planet, hands down.

The post It’s Never Too Early To Look at 2017 World Series Odds appeared first on Big Three Sports.