Looking for Lance’s 1-100 overall rankings?

Follow this link

These ranks are for standard, 5×5 roto leagues.

Below my list you’ll see a sentence or two for each player. I encourage you to read through my thoughts. I hope it adds a little more color, character, and information to my top 100 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. More to come in the weeks ahead.

101-125

I wish Mike Moustakas landed anywhere but Kansas City, but I can settle for another .270, 30-homer season. I am going to miss Adrian Beltre so much when he retires. If Jean Segura can replicate his 2016, we’d be looking at a duplicate of Elvis Andrus – a top 25 player. Do I have confidence in that happening? No, but 15 home runs and 25 bags with a .300 average doesn’t seem unlikely. Josh Bell is one of my pseudo-breakouts for 2018. The floor on his average – projected to hit .273 – means anything he gives over our expected statistics propels him further into the top 100. If you think he can hit more than his 25 from last year, we’re looking at modified version of Nick Castellanos, a top-100 player last year. Jon Lester outperformed his peripherals in 2016, but I didn’t expect this hard of a fall-off. His struggles haven’t been fully baked into his ADP, but the profile is one of balance and I can embrace that inside pick 110.

My only worry with Nick Castellanos is whether he can get back to 100 RBIs. That could be the difference between returning value and failing to stand out between his elders: Moustakas, Beltre, and Longoria. Carlos Santana‘s pulled down the value of every Phillies outfielder I was starting to buy into. His value in OBP leagues seems to continually cloud how valuable he can still be in roto. Nobody ever wants to own Cody Allen because of Andrew Miller… until he posts 30-plus saves. Owning a closer on a bad team is recipe for disappointment, but Brad Hand isn’t selling at too much of a premium. Were doing this all again with Gregory Polanco?! You bet.

Elvis Andrus is an easy player to fade in drafts at 60 overall if you don’t expect another surprising burst of home runs. I apply the same philosophy I did last year with Jose Ramirez to Whit Merrifield. If it haunts me once again, I will finally admit defeat. J.T. Realmuto is hard to draft given the lackluster stats, but his slot value as a catcher is superb. David Price is one of three “old guys” leading off my 101-200 rankings. He’s an easy bet for a K/9 above 9 with quality innings if you can get past the recent injury and media antics. Trevor Bauer‘s ability to adapt and learn is something I love. He improved curveball and switched from a cutter to a slider, convincing me he is poised for big things in 2018.

Jeff Samardzija is the National League version of Chris Archer in terms of falling short of his peripherals. Embracing his offspeed more than he ever has leaves me wondering whether 2018 is the year he confirms how good his FIP was in 2017. Salvador Perez seems to have one good half every season. His stock will fluctuate in-season accordingly. Luke Weaver‘s curveball has been a welcomed surprise for 2018. Add him to the list of pitchers to add pitches, and add me to list of those buying in. Rich Hill might be one of my favorite pitchers to watch. Some tweaks at the end of last year will help to maintain my level of entertainment through 2018. Lance McCullers remains one of the most intriguing pitchers in baseball. Near 50 percent usage on his best pitch – a knuckle curve – and a two-seamer with wicked, changeup-esque bite. He’s a clear number two if he can touch 150 innings.

Ryan Zimmerman‘s 2017 was one of the most unexpectedly productive campaigns. If he repeats it, I’ll be even more surprised. Eddie Rosario is the player nobody thought they’d see inside the top 125 by the end of 2017, but here we are. Ender Inciarte is the most valuable pieces from the highly criticised Dansby Swanson trade. He feels like the outfield version of LeMahieu with more stolen bases.  Steven Souza Jr.‘s 2017 was volatile, yet fantastic, as he posted a 30-homer, 15-plus bag season. His struggles to make contact consistently hold back a true breakout campaign. Trevor Story possesses one of the most grotesque, albeit ownable, strikeout rates in fantasy. Am I the only one hesitant to call him the Rockies’ long term plan at short?

126-150

Alex Wood is one of many quality Dodgers’ arms, each of which possessing their own unique injury concerns. It feels like Alex Colome had one foot out of Tampa Bay, but he’ll remain in tax-friendly Florida with limited upside.. Sandwiched in between two closers, I give you the king of ratios, Andrew Miller. Sliders tend to be more effective in Coors than curveballs, which might limit Wade Davis to really embracing his fastball-cutter combo. I’d love to see him tinker with the depth and velocity of his cutter and find a second wind of dominance. Kyle Seager was one of my value picks last season. Thanks for nothing, Corey’s Brother.

Yadier Molina stole nine bases last year – NINE! That’s one less than he stole from 2013 to 2016. Chris Taylor‘s adjustments were legitimate last season. I’m a buyer even if some regression rears its ugly head. Jon Gray has looked meh this spring. Key word: spring. His strikeout upside is fantastic; don’t forget the helium he had last year before his injury. Zack Godley feels like a poor man’s Luis Castillo with his combination of whiffs and strikeouts, but the upside is substantially lower. Unfortunately for Travis Shaw, the year after a breakout is generally one to be careful with (thanks Mike Podhorzer).

Jake Lamb‘s first and second half splits are some of the most perennially confusing out there. Michael Wacha has toyed with his pitch mix, and even though I don’t love his mechanics, I see a small ray of hope that this could be a year of progression. D.J. LeMahieu is the Joey Gallo of batting average. Entering the prime age of 27, general aging curves are giving Kevin Kiermaier a near 20/20 season. With some BABIP luck, he can be 2018’s younger version of Brett Gardner. Brandon Morrow might be the Cubs’ closer. Given Joe Maddon’s malleability with late inning decisions, I’d set my expectations around Wade Davis circa 2017.

Archie Bradley would be an easy breakout candidate if he was the committed closer, but I actually agree with Torey Lovullo in taking advantage of his ability to go two or three innings. I rank him here on the chance he earns saves in the style of Andrew Miller. Evan Longoria and Cutch head to San Francisco, a detrimental park, and I like them both above their ADP. This is an alternate universe I never thought I’d enter. Manuel Margot is one of the biggest prospects the Padres received from the Red Sox and he’s really good. A small breakout last year might be foreshadowing for something bigger. Maikel Franco‘s stock since his 2015 breakout couldn’t have been more negatively sloped. Let’s see if that trend continues. I’m not as sold that every older power bat transitions smoothly to DH, rendering me the relatively low man on Evan Gattis.

Jorge Polanco is my favorite late-round option up the middle for a little bit of everything. Kyle Schwarber lost a lot of weight. I think he can knock 25 home runs with upside in a lot of other statistics. Delino DeShields will apparently bat leadoff and be free to steal. We’ve been down this path before, but the stolen-base upside warrants another extended look. I was all about Zack Cozart batting leadoff over Ian Kinsler, but Scoscia will continue to break my heart. Ian Happ allows me to double up on the name Ian. I don’t think his spring is much of a fluke.

151-175

Paul DeJong falls under the standard category of standouts which the Cardinals lock up. His peripherals aren’t as poor as you’d expect and although he doesn’t walk much, he’s destined for 25 home runs with shortstop eligibility. Johnny Cueto, along with the entire Giants roster, had a poor 2017. I’d be really interested to see a bounceback based off increased offspeed usage, trending with the rest of the game. Matt Carpenter‘s health is something you can’t bet on, but even at 75 percent, he’s able to produce enough to return value. Justin Smoak‘s breakout was probably a fluke, but this draft slot feels acceptable given that 10-15 percent chance I’m wrong. Speaking of flukes, many think Avisail Garcia‘s run last season is unsustainable coming into 2018, and while I agree, we’re probably regressing him a little bit too much.

Didi Gregorius‘ value feels contingent on lineup placement. I don’t anticipate him taking Bird’s potential spot between the Bash Brothers, but if there is a chance the upside at this area of ADP could be fantastic. Charlie Morton‘s reinvention is extremely impressive. He reinvented himself with his four-seamer and curve, while still sporting an impressive 50 percent groundball rate. If Kyle Hendricks pitches deeper into games his value could quickly balloon. This might be more of a questions regarding Maddon’s willingness to change for the sake of fantasy owners. Gio Gonzalez is one of many studs from 2017 that we’re still trying to determine the true value of for the coming season. Rick Porcello continues this clump of starters, hoping to find the balance between 2016 and 2017.

Marcus Stroman‘s heads an underrated staff north of the border. His shoulder issues are a viable concern. Jameson Taillon‘s story is about as impressive as his career thus far. Any improvement and he’s a steal at his ADP. If Michael Brantley plays consistently, he’s a gem. That’s a big “if.” Yuli Gurriel is the limited upside version of Josh Bell. I have a really hard time buying Boone splitting up the Yankees’ lineup consistently with Greg Bird, that has a large impact on his value.

Adam Eaton was the fun commodity to draft early in January and then everybody realized the Nationals have multiple, comptent outfield options. Sean Doolittle‘s dud year of 2016 makes it harder to buy in, but the Nationals have a relatively weak bullpen and he’s the cornerstone. Jeurys Familia won’t blame you for not re-buying into him. Matt Olson‘s stock has been higher at times, but there is understandable risk here that he can’t manage against left-handed pitchers. Is his damage elsewhere enough to buoy his value? I will own some shares. David Dahl has looked fantastic this spring, but remains one of many outfield pieces for Colorado. I don’t see the need to stress him towards 130-plus games with the depth they have.

Javier Baez will probably never drop his strikeout rate enough to skyrocket his value, but one can dream. Sonny Gray will finally have run support. I was bullish on Kelvin Herrera last year, which reminds me to caution how bullish I should be on any closer . Blake Snell made some fantastic adjustments with his placement on the rubber and pitch mix in the second half of last season. He would be garnering top 125 hype if he was on any other team than the Rays. Jose Berrios‘ curveball will forever be one of the most tantalizing.

176-200

Drew Pomeranz went unnoticed as one of the most productive starters last year. There was a brief moment in history where Mark Melancon was the richest closer ever. Now I can’t tell whether Sam Dyson will steal save opportunities from him. Odubel Herrera feels like the stable outfielder everybody forgets is a top 200 player by season’s end. Nothing quite as fun as gambling on Yoan Moncada. I think he easily touches 20-20 this year, but it’ll come with an average hit. Speaking of average hits, I give you Bradley Zimmer. I might be crazy to think the upside is actually higher with Zimmer than Moncada for 2018, but it’s due in part to the potential for 20-30 versus 20-20.

Josh Reddick has some threats on his playing time in the form of Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher. His production in 130 games, albeit quiet, is stable in five categories. Brett Gardner keeps getting compared to every power-speed outfielder going 50-75 spot ahead of him. That’s because Gardner was one of the biggest appreciators due to the Yankees’ surge and he’s 34 years old. It’s not a good comparison. Garrett Richards is rising up boards everywhere. His curveball looks sharp and not too distant is his productive 2015. Danny Salazar is a walking DL stint. If he’s healthy for a season, the sky’s the limit. Orlando Arcia was one of the more heralded shortstop prospects in the game for a long time. Although he’s not Correa, the production was great last year and I expect it to continue.

Dexter Fowler is the older version of Odubel Herrera with less average. Kevin Pillar is who Braves’ prospect Cristian Pache will likely become, per Fangraphs and others. The comps between every big power hitter and Chris Davis are actually flattering. Power hitters fall off sharply, it’s a fact. Relish the moment while you can. Justin Bour joined the perennial crop of first baseman power bats to return $10 of value in two months. Jose Peraza is probably going to leave your board earlier than this because there aren’t many steals options past the 15th round.

I love contradicting myself by saying there are too few steals options. Enter, Jonathan Villar. Kole Calhoun is a not-Mike Trout outfielder. I have a very weird feeling that Andrelton Simmons becomes the late bloomer to sit inside the 9-10th round next season. Willie Calhoun might be one of the most underdrafted players in fantasy baseball based on projections – aren’t we usually excited for prospects? Dinelson Lamet has been tinkering with other pitches. The former fastball-slider righty will breakout if his third offering, which is fluctuating between a curve and changeup, manifests in at least average form. The comparison may be terrible, but think a slightly less polished Luis Severino is possible if his changeup aides the breakout.

I want to own every Phillies player this year. Even you, Jake Arrieta. Mike Clevinger was named a starter for Francona and the Indians after we learned Salazar wouldn’t be ready to start the season. He, as well, has improved substantially since his relief days. 80-grade hair will take him far. My good friend Richard Birfer has made me aware of a circle-changeup that Aaron Sanchez is throwing. Although I don’t know much about sinker-ball pitchers adopting a similar pitch with more fade, I want the result to be an AL Cy Young contender. Arodys Vizcaino will probably lose the Braves’ closer job by June, draft accordingly. Ditto for Hector Neris, but as always, he represents the player you’re shocked to see outside of my top 200 overall.

Methodology

I based these rankings off of Steamer projections, NFBC ADP data from 1/1/2018 to 2/27/2018, and my own personal touches. Blending the trio and adding in some subjective thoughts on where I’d feel comfortable believing a player will fall at the end of the year based on his projected performance.

Note positional rankings are a component of these overall rankings.

Lance

Photo via the Flickr Creative Commons, thanks to Keith Allison.

The post Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 101-200 Overall appeared first on Big Three Sports.