Gold Derby’s Oscar Experts from major media outlets predict a “Barbenheimer” face-off in the race for Best Adapted Screenplay. While six of these awards pundits think Christopher Nolan‘s “Oppenheimer” script will win, three others say the “Barbie” screenplay from Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach will prevail. Note that one last Expert goes rogue in forecasting a victory for “American Fiction” by new filmmaker Cord Jefferson.

“Oppenheimer” follows the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the controversial theoretical physicist nicknamed the “father of the atomic bomb,” as played by Cillian Murphy. The non-linear script is adapted from “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, which details the creation of the atomic bomb and the later hearings in the Senate. In all, Nolan’s film is nominated for a leading 13 nominations: picture, director (Nolan), adapted screenplay, actor (Murphy), supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.), supporting actress (Emily Blunt), cinematography, costume design, film editing, makeup & hairstyling, production design, score and sound.

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With $1.4 billion at the worldwide box office, “Barbie” is the most successful film ever to be directed by a woman. Shockingly, Gerwig missed a Best Director nomination in one of the year’s most shocking snubs. Her fantasy comedy tells the story of Mattel’s Barbie (Margot Robbie, also snubbed) and Ken (Ryan Gosling) as they travel to the real world to try to discover the truth about humanity. Its eight nominations are for picture, adapted screenplay, supporting actor (Gosling), supporting actress (America Ferrera), costume design, song (“I’m Just Ken”), song (“What Was I Made For”) and production design.

Jefferson‘s first-ever feature film, “American Fiction,” was a hit on the festival circuit, and now it has been noticed five times by Oscar voters. Jeffrey Wright stars as an author who finds wild success after he starts writing more “Black,” and Sterling K. Brown plays his estranged brother. The script is based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett. Its five nominations are for picture, actor (Wright), supporting actor (Brown), adapted screenplay and score.

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The six Experts predicting “Oppenheimer” to win the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar are Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Michael Musto (Queerty), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby) and Tariq Khan (Gold Derby).

As for the other Experts, Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Nikki Novak (Fandango) and Ray Richmond (Gold Derby) forecast “Barbie” for the win, while Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) says it’ll be “American Fiction.”

Currently at Gold Derby, none of our Experts are predicting wins for the other two Best Adapted Screenplay nominees, “Poor Things” by Tony McNamara and “The Zone of Interest” by Jonathan Glazer. However, many more awards pundits will chime in with their Oscar predictions between now and the ceremony on March 10, so that could change in the coming weeks.

PREDICT the 2024 Oscar winners through March 10

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