On the contrary, Lake was a surprise. At the same time, it recalls the oldest of conventional political adages: the quality of candidates matters.

You can Peddle Conspiracy Theories about the 2020 election and sink under the waves if you’re a state senator with no particularly notable political skills; or you can peddle conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and get off the ground if you’re an exceptionally ready former news anchor.

Of course, Mastriano is the first and Lake is the second, and that’s one of the keys to their different trajectories.

A lake win is by no means a lock. She leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by just 1.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. Still, given the general political environment and the way it leans more toward Republicans, she is clearly in a strong position.

Win or lose, there is no doubt that a major political talent has emerged. Lake is the latest in a line of champions of grassroots conservative populism that spans from Phyllis Schlafly to Sarah Palin to Marjorie Taylor Greene from the 1950s to today.

These are extremely divergent figures. Schlafly had a very serious purpose and was one of the most important leaders of post-war conservatism; MTG is trolling the Libs and hoping to find a seat on the House Oversight Committee if the Republicans regain a majority.

Yet there are commonalities in this line of “mama bear” populists across the decades: fervent opposition to the elite; a disdain for the Republican establishment; a hatred of the press; a dark or frankly conspiratorial view of the world; a fervent support base of activists and ordinary voters insulated from the influence of critical outside voices; and a fearlessness and instinctive combativeness which made or make these women even more odious to their adversaries and admirable to their supporters.

What’s new about Lake and MTG is that loyalty to Donald Trump and an insistence on stealing the 2020 election are now the litmus tests for this grassroots populism. When Phyllis Schlafly debuted in the 1950s, the intensity of someone’s anticommunism was the yardstick.

A staunch devotion to 2020 election denial isn’t the most natural calling card in a tightly contested state like Arizona. That’s why Lake seemed like such a bad fit for the GOP. His other attributes, however, outweighed his poisonous and outrageous views on elections.

As a local news anchor in Phoenix for 20 years, she entered the race with built-in name recognition and a reservoir of credibility that served her well. It’s a bit like Walter Cronkite, back when the network anchors were still near the peak of their powers, standing up and deciding to jump into the Democratic primary against President Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Then there’s the fact that Lake loves the microphone and the camera, and they love him back. She has communication skills that an army of consultants could never pass on to a less experienced candidate. Lake has basically had over 20 years of media training, and it shows.

At a rally with Tulsi Gabbard this week that involved a conversation with the former Democratic congresswoman on stage, Lake could have been mistaken for the celebrity MC. She was fluid and in control. Not a word was out of place. She seamlessly intertwined pleasant chatter with her campaign message, which, with its focus on border, education and water issues, hardly sounded radical.

Anchoring television news is about connecting with viewers and projecting authority, and these are attributes that are directly transferable to the political realm. If you seem unfazed, people will think you’re unfazed, which creates a sense of command.

Lake made a point of constantly hitting back at the media. Knowing how valuable these exchanges are in motivating Republicans, his campaign takes care to put them on video and distribute them widely. The last such moment caused Lake to pose a question about his election denial to a reporter and reverse it by quoting a chapter and verse about Democrats denying the legitimacy of Republican presidential victories since 2000. That doesn’t excuse any of what Lake said, but it showed moxie — and in the way she pulled it off — practiced showmanship.

On top of all that, she’s running against perhaps the nation’s worst Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, whose campaign is currently spent trying to justify her refusal to debate Lake. Hobbs flatly lacks Lake’s star power and, in fact, feels more like a candidate for the Central Arizona Water Conservancy District Board of Directors than the highest elected office in the state.

If Lake wins, she must immediately top Trump’s list of potential VPs. There won’t be many other top officials as excited about his 2020 fixture as Lake. She would be governor of a crucial rotating state. It’s a woman. And she has completely absorbed the Trumpian practice of politics as combat and theater and can build a crowd.

There is a long way to go from here to there. If nothing else, however, we now know what a desperate misjudgment it was for Democrats to subtly help Lake in the GOP primary. They thought they were supporting a patsy, when they were really helping to create a star they might have feared and hated for years.