The report suggests that the momentum is being boosted by the growing number of young voters and more people coming out in younger generations. Nationally, Gen Z has the highest share of Lgbtq people – 27% – followed by Millennials, with 16% identifying as LGBTQ. In 2020, youth turnout was 11 points higher than in the previous presidential election, and 17 million young people turned 18 between the 2020 election and the 2022 midterm elections.

“It is safe to assume that LGBTQ+ Americans are, and increasingly will continue to be, a significant voting bloc in U.S. elections,” the report said.

LGBTQ voters had a historically high turnout in the 2020 presidential election, making up around 7% of the electorate. Halfway through 2018, it was 6%.

Issues around LGBTQ rights, abortion access and voting access are pushing these voters to the polls this year, said Geoff Wetrosky, national campaign director for the Human Rights Campaign. A Human Rights Campaign survey from earlier this year found that 42% of respondents said immigration policy reform was one of the main issues when deciding who to vote for . Another 22% cited crime rates in their area.

Republican campaigns lean heavily on this cycle’s messages on crime and immigration. Exit polls from previous elections show that the majority of voters who identify as LGBTQ are Democrats. And Wetrosky said there is a stark partisan divide when it comes to LGBTQ voter support.

“But our hope is that as politicians from all political parties recognize the changing demographics of the country, the growth of the Lgbtq Electoral Bloc and the growth of our number of pro-equality allies, they too will support pro policies. -equality,” he said.

The Senate is voting on legislation to protect same-sex marriage after the election, a delay that senators supporting the deal say will boost its chances of passage. But that means Republicans will be able to sidestep their records on the issue before the midterms.

“The LGBTQ electoral bloc does not act as a monolith, and we don’t necessarily only support Democrats, we support pro-equality candidates,” he continued. “We hope that candidates from all parties will recognize this and support pro-equality policies and reach out to LGBTQ voters and seek our votes.”

LGBTQ voting can have an impact in battleground states, the report suggests. In 2030 and 2040, the percentage of eligible voters who are LGBTQ is expected to exceed the national average in Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Nevada and Colorado. Ohio is expected to experience the highest percentage change, rising from 10% in 2020 to 18% in 2040.

Earlier this year, Agenda PAC, a new liberal super PAC, was launched to defeat anti-LGBTQ candidates — one of the first being Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor of Pennsylvania. Mastriano said LGBTQ couples shouldn’t be allowed to adopt children, same-sex marriage shouldn’t be legal, and transgender women shouldn’t be allowed to participate in women’s sports.

Other battlefield race contenders have also spoken out against LGBTQ issues. Amid reports that Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race paid for an ex-partner’s abortion — which he denied and POLITICO has not independently verified — he said that he supported Georgia’s abortion law, which prohibits abortion in most cases after detection of fetal heart activity. , usually after about six weeks of pregnancy. Over the summer, he did not say whether he would vote to enshrine same-sex marriage in law.

“It would be a political earthquake across the country, especially with a state like Texas – to have this huge LGBTQ population, a growing number of allies as well, in the state looking for pro-equality politicians who, at the state level in particular, are not currently seeking votes from LGBTQ voters supporting pro-equality policies,” Wetrosky said.

Just last week, a federal judge ruled in favor of Texas and halted the implementation of two Biden administration rules regarding LGBTQ protections for employees and children. Last year, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against the rules. Biden condemned these actions taken by the administration of Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

“Attempts by the Biden administration to radicalize federal law to follow its woke political beliefs are beyond dangerous,” Paxton said in a statement following the ruling. “I will continue to push back against these unlawful attempts to use federal agencies to normalize extremist positions that put millions of Texans at risk.”

A recent poll shows Abbott ahead of Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. POLITICO predicts the race will likely be Republican.

“These States and these rulers [are] on the wrong side of history, but I think they’re really on the wrong side of demographics, even,” said Shoshana Goldberg, the study’s lead author and director of public education and research at the Human Rights Campaign Foundation. “Only the basic numbers suggest that where these states are going versus where their states’ politicians think they are going suggests a pretty big disconnect.”